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Can Any Smartphone Platform Overcome the Android/iOS Duopoly? 404

Nerval's Lobster writes "The company formerly known as Research In Motion—which decided to cut right to the proverbial chase and rename itself 'BlackBerry'—launched its much-anticipated BlackBerry 10 operating system at a high-profile event in New York City Jan. 30. Meanwhile, Microsoft is still dumping tons of money and effort into Windows Phone. But can either smartphone OS — or another player, for that matter — successfully challenge Apple iOS and Google Android, which one research firm estimated as running on 92 percent of smartphones shipped in the fourth quarter of 2012? What would it take for any company to launch that sort of successful effort?"
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Can Any Smartphone Platform Overcome the Android/iOS Duopoly?

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  • Maybe... (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:14PM (#42754433)

    ...if giant asteroids hit Mountain View, South Korea, and Cupertino at the exact same moment.

  • I'd expect that... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by mark-t ( 151149 ) <markt AT nerdflat DOT com> on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:14PM (#42754437) Journal
    ... if anybody knew the answer to that question, they'd probably already be filthy rich.
    • by Un pobre guey ( 593801 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:16PM (#42754471) Homepage
      I know the answer: No. Unfortunately, I'm still not filthy rich.
      • I know the answer: No. Unfortunately, I'm still not filthy rich.

        I know the answer: Yes. But it'll take both an unusually well designed platform and a shitload of money thrown both at handset makers and app developers. No customer in their right mind is going to come to a platform with no popular apps. And no handset maker is going to take a chance on an upstart. Whoever wants to try this is going to bleed money like crazy just to get a foothold in.

    • by Farmer Pete ( 1350093 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:26PM (#42754591)
      I would give the answer No about 80% odds. It's very unlikely that RIM will be able to undo what they've already done. They took a monopoly and pissed it away. Every blackberry I used was worse than the one before it. My battery life went from 3 days with my first 8830, 1 day with my tour, and 16 hours with my bold. I enjoyed some features, (mail delivery and calendaring is much better on the BB than on Android), but the lack of apps was very disheartening. I really didn't mind the lack of a touch screen, and the keyboard was the perfect size for me. Even if the BB10 OS is soooo much better, the only way I would consider it is if the monthly fees were ridiculously cheap. Unfortunately, since RIM actually does something on the back end, they have the biggest price disadvantage of any manufacturer, and you are more likely to pay more than the competition, not less.
      • The early blackberrys were highly optimized text messaging machines...everything was aimed at maximizing battery life.

        Once you start bringing in big bright high def screens, arbitrary apps, fluid video, fancy gui elements, etc. you pretty much by definition are going to use more battery keeping the whole thing running.

        You could have 3 days of battery life now if you were willing to go back to the feature set of the 8830.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • Not true. The 8830 was a solid modern phone. The only main features it was lacking were WiFi, a camera, and GPS. I know WiFi and GPS eat up battery, but it shouldn't be such a significant drop. I would have stuck with it if it wasn't for the fact that I needed the quad band GSM radio for international travel. The 8830 only had a dual band, which didn't work in Mexico or Argentina (the two places I frequented the most). I guess the switch to the trackpad on the Tour was a nice change as well. I was re
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by postbigbang ( 761081 )

        I take encouragement that iOS is a combo of Windows CE and older Blackberry functionality that was done well. Schmidt was on Apple's board when they were conceiving iOS, and he took what he discovered and grafted it onto Android. These have all been incremental repackaging of stuff. BB/RIM has a weak engineering team, but good ideas, hobbled by not making vast ecosystems out of content, apps (especially games), and so forth. They focused on business. In a way, that much hasn't changed, but they're trying to

  • Lots of Money (Score:5, Insightful)

    by amiga3D ( 567632 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:15PM (#42754445)

    I think Microsoft can. It's a matter of how many billions of dollars they want to bleed first. It worked with the XBox. Of course the XBox was also helped by Sony's stupidity.

    • Re:Lots of Money (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Un pobre guey ( 593801 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:18PM (#42754499) Homepage
      Microsoft will not win this time. If they continue to waste money on their phones, they will die an ignominious death. They need to move on to bigger and better things, like the massive robotic invasion that's not even ten years away.
      • by NoNonAlphaCharsHere ( 2201864 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:21PM (#42754537)
        Dude, please. If Microsoft software became self-aware, it would be Terri Schiavo.
      • Microsoft can win if they focus on the mobile worker running a line-of-business application. The ability of such a device to make phone calls probably isn't that important.

        Think

        delivery driver with the job/route list loaded onto the phone scanning barcodes, collecting signatures, then being told where to go next
        service engineer booking parts to a job and recording the work done
        breakdown recovery with the thing they plug into the dashboard
        sales staff with something similar to the modified iPod touches used

    • Re:Lots of Money (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Spectre ( 1685 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:22PM (#42754547)

      I think Microsoft can. It's a matter of how many billions of dollars they want to bleed first. It worked with the XBox. Of course the XBox was also helped by Sony's stupidity.

      I was going to ask what you were smoking after reading the first sentence. Reading the rest of the post lends credibility to the possibility, though.

      If Apple seriously screws up the next iPhone and Microsoft manages to come up with something far, far better than any OS they've put on a phone ever ... than they might stand a chance of Microsoft coming out over Apple.

      It would be hard to beat out Android on all fronts, though ... there have been some seriously crappy Android phones, but I don't think the market has been without great Android phones from at least two different manufacturers in years. So that would require a failure from Google that applied to all manufacturers of Android phones, which doesn't seem too likely.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Even if Apple seriously screws up the next generation, I think Microsoft is still far from being in a position to take over. Their Windows Phone software is not terribly popular, and their partners are all very, very wary of their antics, i.e. nobody would willingly partner with them. They have no good will left among the industry, and besides manufacturers, there are no developers interested in making their platform successful. Nokia doesn't count because it's rather clear Nokia is running around the smart

      • The problem is that even if Microsoft came out with some ultimate thing that everyone wanted, it wouldn't be a year before every other smartphone had it. I just don't see Microsoft gaining enough momentum to overtake anyone. If Microsoft is LUCKY, they will overtake Apple and Google at about the same rate as Apple is taking over the PC market.
    • Personally I would rather have one of those new backberry phones forced on me than anything with windows8.
    • by msauve ( 701917 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:31PM (#42754671)
      They could call it the ZunePhone.
    • Re:Lots of Money (Score:5, Insightful)

      by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:43PM (#42754845) Homepage Journal

      I don't think Microsoft can. Microsoft phones have been around for a while now, and not only do they still suck but they're still not popular. AFAICT the Xbox 360 is a fairly decent platform all told, too bad about their overmonetization of Xbox Live but that's not enough to keep them from success. But Windows CE and all its incarnations have always sucked hard, and not in a good way. I imagine that Microsoft will keep up their unvarying record of mediocrity in the mobile space, so I doubt that Microsoft can ever become even the #2 player in mobile no matter how much they spend. They have never demonstrated an ability to make a phone that fucking works.

      • by Andy Dodd ( 701 )

        To be honest, Windows Mobile 6.x was decent for power users. Of course, once Android hit, it quickly became overshadowed, but WM6.x did have a reasonably good core market.

        The problem is, Microsoft utterly threw away the entirety of that market with WP7. They went from an OS popular with power users to one that catered to the tech inexperienced.

        It seems like a great approach, except when you have a well established competitor that is targeting the EXACT same market. With a company as well established as A

    • Windows CE for phones for 2002. I haven't seen much since then that makes them seem like they have more of a clue now then before. The problem before was that they tried a Desktop-Mouse metaphor on a phone. Now they're forcing a touchscreen phone UI on a desktop.

      This will not end as well as they'd like.

  • No (Score:5, Insightful)

    by SirJorgelOfBorgel ( 897488 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:15PM (#42754451)

    As is always the case with /., if the subject is a question, the answer is no.

    Unless you let enough time pass, then the answer to this case is most certainly yes. Nobody knows how much time that would be, though.

    • Re:No (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Un pobre guey ( 593801 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:30PM (#42754661) Homepage
      Their only hope is for current Android/iOS devices to age out and become dull and boring, and then come up with something radically new. Google Glasses are a possibility, because they change the paradigm from a phone handset or a tablet to something radically different but with the same functionality of the phones plus a whole lot more. Microsoft would have to at least play catchup with Google, and I would bet a few bucks that Apple already has a few secret prototypes. If they don't, then they too are roadkill.
      • But don't you think Google glasses are going to run android? I do.

      • The problem is not really the devices themselves any more. Admittedly, Apple or Google could screw the pooch in some horrendous way, but I don't think they're going to make any missteps that large. The problem here is the app stores. Apple's app store is very large and very mature, and while Google's is still a bit of rough around the edges, particularly for developers, it too is very large. Microsoft is starting out three or four years late here, and while it may be able to push out a decent mobile OS and

    • While I agree with you in principle on the No to headline aspect, lets put things in perspective.

      5 years ago, neither Google nor Apple sold a phone, yet between the two of them they've entirely owned the market, world wide.

      If that doesn't make it clear just how silly fragile your market dominance can be I don't know what is.

      Can someone do it? Yes, just have to wait until Google and Apple sit on their butt for a bit. It may not be today, or tomorrow, but it will happen.

      All things come to pass.

  • Better question (Score:5, Insightful)

    by NEDHead ( 1651195 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:16PM (#42754473)

    Can any smartphone platform overcome the Nokia/RIM duopoly?

    • Re:Better question (Score:5, Insightful)

      by localman57 ( 1340533 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:23PM (#42754563)
      That's not a good comparison, though. Yeah, apple and google have eatten RIM's lunch, but even if they hadn't, they'd still be bigger because most of their growth was from sales to people who don't own smartphones. The market is saturated now. Even apple is starting to have problems competing with their own products that people already own. What we're talking about is something that's good enough to make people switch. Not new growth. And if you already have products you've bought through the app store for your platform, that's a hurdle. Your new offering has to be of more value that what you're walking away from.
      • Re:Better question (Score:4, Insightful)

        by blueg3 ( 192743 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:37PM (#42754739)

        But most of those people already had phones. So a future market player can sell a foo-phone to the (large) market of people who don't own foo-phones and only own smartphones.

        • Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)

          by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @04:16PM (#42755197)
          Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • The monetary value of the apps probably isn't a hindrance, I've probably bough maybe ten apps. Total cost is around $50. That wouldn't deter me from switching to blackberry or Jolla if they are decent.

  • by localman57 ( 1340533 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:17PM (#42754491)
    I didn't know I really, really wanted an iPod until I saw one. Same with a cell phone, GPS, digital cameras, and palm pilots. It wasn't a stretch to imagine a device that integrated them all, but that took about another 7 years.

    What it will take to break the duopoly is someone bringing me a new capability on the order of the iPod, cell phone, GPS, digital camera, or Palm Pilot. And , of course, it needs to be integrated with the phone. Just giving me a new user interface, or a way to stir facebook, twitter, and the rest of that crap together won't do it. NFC payment systems are trying to be this, but don't make it. Whatever it is will be a whole new class of feature.
    • I didn't know I really, really wanted an iPod until I saw one. Same with a cell phone, GPS, digital cameras, and palm pilots. It wasn't a stretch to imagine a device that integrated them all, but that took about another 7 years. What it will take to break the duopoly is someone bringing me a new capability on the order of the iPod, cell phone, GPS, digital camera, or Palm Pilot. And , of course, it needs to be integrated with the phone. Just giving me a new user interface, or a way to stir facebook, twitter, and the rest of that crap together won't do it. NFC payment systems are trying to be this, but don't make it. Whatever it is will be a whole new class of feature.

      All of those functions were, at the time, handled by individual devices or analog usually. We knew about all the things that were being done with those services, before those devices came and the devices made it better. So the question is, what possibly else could a mini computer do for you that it doesn't already do? All the sensory and location recording and communication is pretty mature now. The only possible thing I can see, mainstream, is some type of medical monitoring through sensors on the skin

    • 1) Augmented reality, overlay virtual information on the real world.
      2) 3D motion sensing, like the "leap motion" device.
      3) Ability to dock with something that has common ports (USB in, video out, etc.) and turn into a full-fledged computer with full sized keyboard/mouse while also charging the mobile device.
      4) Better battery. (like 10x better)

    • I didn't know I really, really wanted an iPod until I saw one. Same with a cell phone, GPS, digital cameras, and palm pilots.

      Exactly. People back in 2006 were asking whether or not the then-rumored iPhone would even make a dent in the market, and it was a good question to ask (then-CEO of Palm, Ed Colligan, famously said, "We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in", back in November 2006). But as soon as the world saw it, it knew that direction was the future. Android came along shortly ther

  • there were a lot of nice features about the ubuntu phone... but the one thing i disagreed with was the lack of a lock screen... at least as far as i could tell
  • by OzPeter ( 195038 )

    Presenting the EyePhone [youtube.com]

    All a company has to do is to come up with something that none of the big companies have thought about, patent the shit out of it so they have exclusive rights and then they will have people falling over themselves to buy it while everyone else stands around saying "Why didn't we think of that?". The big companies do not have a lock on innovation.

    But can they do it is a different question from "How easy is it to do?"

  • If you are still thinking about just a smartphone OS then you pretty much left with no options.
    However, there is a huge potential for any OS/framework that can tap into Cars, TVs, Office Cubes, Kitchen appliances..
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      This is exactly what I want. My smartphone should be able to easily dock into my car and transfer my maps, media, text messages (to voice), call functions, etc to the car's display and audio easily. I know there's a level of that possible now, but nothing as simple as dock and forget. I should then be able to come home, plug my phone into a dock and have my media easily available, and if i have a landline style phone, my calls should just transfer to that while docked. Same plan with an office. Stop bu

  • by DeadDecoy ( 877617 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:23PM (#42754559)
    if we are legally prohibited from unlocking [slashdot.org] our phones to make any modifications to the software or firmware?
    • by neiras ( 723124 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:35PM (#42754721)

      Does it matter if we are legally prohibited from unlocking our phones to make any modifications to the software or firmware?

      You are not legally prohibited from making modifications to software or firmware.

      The recent law that prohibits unlocking refers only to the unlocking process that allows you to use any SIM card you want in your phone.

      You are still free to jailbreak or root your devices, install the operating system of your choice, etc. None of that has anything to do with unlocking your phone.

    • by blueg3 ( 192743 )

      That's referring to unlocking, which is turning your carrier-specific phone into a carrier-independent phone. You're thinking of jailbreaking, which enables you to modify software you were not originally intended to modify. They're entirely separate things.

    • Don't most carriers provide this for you?

      Tmo gave me mine Today, after this law was passed. Simple, easy, took a few hours to get an email for both my phones. Just incase I sell them.

      Secondly, if you have a att phone why would you want to bring it to tmo, the 3g/fake 4g run on diff frequencies. Sure you could make phone calls/text but the data would be 2g/edge speeds. Fun times.

      Just buy an unlocked phone to begin with. That way you know it's has more frequencies so it can go on either network.

      (I do not

  • When Android hit the market, Blackberry was just introducing the Blackberry Storm, and it was kind of a big deal. The refinement of Android and the phones it ran on was absurd. I think the biggest thing that's changed is that you now have much smoother interactions with phones and computers. I think it may be in Blackberry's interest to try to work with big media providers (Amazon, perhaps) to try to match the ecosystems Google and Apple have formed.
    • Why would Amazon partner with BlackBerry when they already have their own phone coming to market [forbes.com].

    • You just said the magic word, Amazon. Yes the duopoly can be broken, and there's only one company in position to break it anytime within the next hand full of years.

      People tend to forget (or maybe this is just /.) that these are consumer devices, and you know what the most important part of a buying decision is in the wildly large majority of people who buy them? Perception of the company. Why do you think Android overtook RIM? With sufficient continued revenue RIM would have continued to innovate, but i
  • The thing that makes Windows stay is not "because it's better." It's because it has critical mass and the cost of moving away from it is too painful and complicated.

    Smart phones in the form of Android and IPhone have not quite reached that point but they will soon. At the moment, there are no "can't live without it" apps though the games are a kind of resistance to change already.

    Integration with business will be a critical piece for any smartphone challenger to offer. Blackberry has done this while offe

  • It wouldn't hurt anyway. Seriously though. They had better either do something remarkable or have some great features. For example, I'd pay good money for a phone with a physical scrolling wheel. Ditto for sound. Or an On/Off switch that didn't make you wait for the computer to contemplate its navel would be worth something too. Sometimes you can't beat physical controls. Nobody has yet done scrolling right and you always end up clicking something you wish you hadn't. Truly painless linking to Outlook and o

    • by joh ( 27088 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:55PM (#42754975)

      It wouldn't hurt anyway. Seriously though. They had better either do something remarkable or have some great features. For example, I'd pay good money for a phone with a physical scrolling wheel. Ditto for sound. Or an On/Off switch that didn't make you wait for the computer to contemplate its navel would be worth something too. Sometimes you can't beat physical controls. Nobody has yet done scrolling right and you always end up clicking something you wish you hadn't.

      What? No.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:34PM (#42754699)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The big difference is that back then, all of the functionality of a Nokia phone was provided by Nokia, and pretty much any phone could do the same thing - make phone calls, send text messages, take photos, maybe listen to mp3s.

      Now, most of the functionality of an Android or Apple phone is provided by third parties who write software for it, and someone else who wants to move into that market has to persuade those third parties to develop for their platform. That isn't going to be so easy.

  • by Quiet_Desperation ( 858215 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:44PM (#42754851)

    Aging population + Jitterbug phone = THE FUTURE

  • ...if they can leverage the enterprise. Our support people have about given up on Android, too many flavors to support. I'm not saying they will pull it off, I don't think they can get away with their old tricks to take over the market, but I wouldn't rule them out either. RIM is toast.
    • by Charliemopps ( 1157495 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @03:57PM (#42754997)

      We have enterprise support for android and apple without any issues at all. You need new IT people.

    • Microsoft has had a phone product since 2003, tied heavily to their platform, and it has been soundly ignored for the last 10 years by the enterprise crowd. Windows Mobile actually had about 24% world market share in 2004, it dropped to 14% by 2008 even before iPhone came out, and then it became irrelevant afterwards.

      Its pretty obvious that the enterprise types do not value Windows phones in spite of tight integration into Microsoft platforms.

      Savior by the enterprise is the biggest myth for Windows Phone,

  • What kind of idiot story is this? Android and IOS just got done destroying the Microsoft/RIM duopoly... Suddenly they are the underdog deserving of our sympathy? They are doing poorly because they suck... not because they are being crushed by Google/Apples corporate might.

    • The new Blackberry OS has some interesting functionality (reminiscent of webOS in some areas) that I could see some people really going for. In particular the separation between business/personal could reduce BYOD concerns a lot (though I think it should also be able to have separate sim cards as well).

      With the new OS, I think it's reasonable to give Blackberry another chance, and so the question becomes what it would take for them to actually succeed.

  • Its laughable for Microsoft or RIM to believe they can claw their way into the top 2, and I mean every other smartphone OS developer would have to have a solid year of chronic brain farts for FireFox or Ubuntu to even break 4th place.

    The fight is going to be for #3 for a good long time.

    Its not impossible for Apple or Google to slip (will give it to Apple to fall from grace before Google any day), just look at how quickly RIM dropped from nearly 50% global market penetration to less then 1%. But I can safel

  • Windows Phone (Score:3, Interesting)

    by DogDude ( 805747 ) on Thursday January 31, 2013 @04:06PM (#42755079)
    I just got my second Windows Phone today. I really like it. I don't care about all of the "Apps" because it does everything I need right out of the box. I think that a well integrated OS like Windows Phone 8.0 doesn't need to rely on millions of "apps" to be able to sway customers.
  • Likely? No.

    Once any one or two players get to a majority like that, they typically only lose share if 1) they start being stupid, lazy, or ineffective, or 2) something drastically different comes along.

    Related to #1 is when there is a strong competitor that gets incrementally better over time and overtakes the leader, but that usually only happens when the market is relatively young and there's lots of room for improvement. We saw it early on with battles over spreadsheets and word processors, and later wit

  • -1997: can anubody overcome the DOS/Epoc dominance
    -2000: can anybody overcome the Palmos dominace
    -2002: can anybody overcome the WIndows CE dominance?
    -2005: can anybody overcome the Symbian dominance?
    -2009: can anybody overcome the Iphone/Blackberry dominance?

    Yes, at some point sombody will. Nothing is as fluctuating as PIM devices. They have a well defined set of apps which really will make my buying decision, and i am not hesitant to change the OS. Did that two or three times. If QNX proves to be solid an

  • Symbian used to be THE ecosystem in mobile phones, and look where is at now. iOS and then Android hit big, both with their own ecosystems, and have most of the market by now, but it could change. Windows Phone want to be the next one, but i think it won't have good chances, not sure how much compatibility will be between desktop and mobile programs, and the clean cut they did with "old" win 7.x phones and apps is not a good signal).

    But could be an incoming new ecosystem. Blackberry 10, Sailfish, Ubuntu Mob

    • by LDAPMAN ( 930041 )

      Symbian was never an ecosystem. Symbian was an operating system. Being part of the Google or Apple ecosystem has an impact on users. Using Symbian was completely transparent to them.

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