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iPhone Activation Market Share Hits New Low as Android Dominates (9to5mac.com) 59

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
An anonymous reader shares a report: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners is out with a report on how iPhone activations compare to Android in the US. The latest data shows a notable drop over the last year bringing Apple's US smartphone market share of new activations back in time six years. CIRP shared its new iPhone report on its Substack this morning. The firm notes that while it believes Apple's installed smartphone base is higher than the recent share of US smartphone activations, the latter has taken a dive.

As shown below, the metric peaked at 40% for Q1 and Q2 in 2023 with Apple seeing a decline to 33% of new smartphone activations in the US as of Q1 2024, says CIRP. That means 2 out of 3 new smartphone activations in the US are Android devices. Per CIRP's data, Apple hasn't seen numbers that low since 2017.

iPhone Activation Market Share Hits New Low as Android Dominates More | Reply

iPhone Activation Market Share Hits New Low as Android Dominates

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  • I read so many contradicting numbers. Stuff like this [oberlo.com] where Apple apparently has close to 60% of market share in the US, but then reading the article in this post says new activiations are around 33%.

    Why such a big discrepancy?

    • Re:So many contradicting numbers (Score:5, Informative)

      by leptons ( 891340 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @01:02PM (#64424550)
      Do you know the difference between people that already have iPhones, and people getting new iPhones? 60% of people in the US already have iPhones. 33% of new phone activations were iPhones. Apple used to have 40% of new phone activations, but it has fallen to 33%. Android is simply more popular right now, so more people are activating Android phones - so that 60% number is going to go down over time, too, as a result of only 33% of new activations being iPhones. It's really not that difficult to understand.

      • Re:So many contradicting numbers (Score:5, Insightful)

        by alvinrod ( 889928 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @01:44PM (#64424748)
        That's not necessarily the case. If iPhone users are keeping their devices longer, the percentage of new activations would be lower even if the ratio of Apple to Android users remains unchanged. Without additional information, it's not possible to make the kind of conclusions that are being drawn from the data.
        • Software support is a big factor. iPhones tend to be supported longer with the newest iOS. With Android, I advise people who want the longest software support to get a Pixel. With other manufacturers, people have to do their research down to the model.

          • Re:So many contradicting numbers (Score:4, Informative)

            by leptons ( 891340 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @02:18PM (#64424850)
            OS updates don't matter to most people as much as you might think they do. People are perfectly fine with no software updates so long as their device just keeps working as it has. Software updates also sometimes come with their own problems.

            • so long as their device just keeps working as it has.

              I find it to be the case that as long as their apps keep working. When the OS is too old, some apps cannot be updated and stop working. Any streaming app for example just stops working if the version is too old. For some phones, the OS cannot be updated anymore.

              • so long as their device just keeps working as it has.

                I find it to be the case that as long as their apps keep working. When the OS is too old, some apps cannot be updated and stop working. Any streaming app for example just stops working if the version is too old. For some phones, the OS cannot be updated anymore.

                Sometimes an app needs to be updated because new functionality is desired. However, for most of my apps, I don't care about new functionality (or even security updates), I just want to keep doing exactly the same things I've been doing.

                My big problem is that some some apps have an artificial required min or max OS level. For example, I used to use the Swype keyboard. I liked it far better than Gboard or other keyboards. As OS updates arrived, I would see warnings about how the app was no longer supported, w

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by vux984 ( 928602 )

            Disagree. Perhaps it _should_ be a big factor, but it's really not.

            People text, and snapchat, and tiktok, and watch youtube and play spotify, a mobile game, and take pictures, and maybe once in a while even make a phone call.

            As long as that all just works, they don't really care, and will use the phone until they break it or it stops holding a charge.

            Or if they're on some sort of subsidy-treadmill, they replace it every 2 years regardless.

            Very very few people are 'oh noes, Samsung/Apple/HTC is no longer sen

            • The key thing you said is “As long as it just works". I can assure you that some apps stop working if they are not updated especially if there is an online component. Also apps stop working with prior versions of the OS if it is too old.

              Very very few people are 'oh noes, Samsung/Apple/HTC is no longer sending me annoying updates that make me reboot my phone... I need a new phone now!'

              Again what happens is "Hey this app stopped working. Oh, it needs an update. Oh the latest version does not work with my version of the OS. I need to update the OS. My OS can’t be updated anymore?! Well, crap."

              It has happened with a friend who had an ancient smar

              • Re: (Score:2)

                by vux984 ( 928602 )

                In your example you described the phone that needed replacing as "Ancient".

                When you get to "Ancient", it doesn't really matter whether its apple or android. It's out of support on either, and yes, app support starts to fall apart at that age too.

                My brother in law just updated from a Galaxy S5 this year (10 years old).

                • To me it was ancient. To him it was a perfectly working phone and the apps worked fine. Unfortunately for most people on Android, it can be down to phone model whether they need a new phone every few years or can use it for longer.

        • That's not necessarily the case. If iPhone users are keeping their devices longer, ...

          Yup. Apple needs to stop supporting their phones for so long, so people will buy new ones more often. That's the math of it. I'm actually against that and believe Android phone makers and Google should support theirs longer. The latter is better for consumers and the planet (less waste) but worse for the corporate bottom line.

        • For their kids iPhone they absolutely do not keep their phones longer. After 2 years like clockwork and iPhone starts to have weird behavior. Most commonly this is because the battery is wearing out and the software is doing all sorts of weird tricks to hide that from the user. Those weird tricks cause all sorts of headaches most notably you'll start to get messages late because the phone isn't driving the radio is hard in an effort to spare battery life.

          Meanwhile I'm at three and a half years and I'm j

          • (Disclaimer: iPhone owner) I've found investing in a new battery at about the 2 to 3 year mark a good investment. As is, a complete re-install. Backup photos and other things first.

            Normal use for me is about 4 to 5 years.

            Remember: Apple are making the money. You may have criticisms of the "walled garden", or be happy with the security it provides, but it and the entire ecosystem IS making a metric ton of money for Apple. If the O/S is commodity, then selling hardware is a race to the bottom. And they never

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by PPH ( 736903 )

          If iPhone users are keeping their devices longer,

          And that's fine for those people. While it lasts. But it's a signal to Apple that they are losing market share. And when Apple decides to do something about it, that something might be to make users of older iPhones lives a bit more miserable.

    • Market share is based on the number of active phones in circulation which is effectively the number of activations over several years. The new activations data above is a snapshot of the market share over a just one year. Even if Apple sold zero iPhones last year it would still maintain a reasonable market share because most people do not replace their phone every year.

    • Another explaination would be iPhone people are keeping phones longer due to reasier repair, apple care, etc. whereas android people just nuke and restart with a new phone.

    • I read so many contradicting numbers. Stuff like this [oberlo.com] where Apple apparently has close to 60% of market share in the US, but then reading the article in this post says new activiations are around 33%.

      Well, two things may be in play here.

      Yes, iPhones may be the most popular phone in the US.

      But also, perhaps the phones are made such that people aren't needing to upgrade them as often as they do Androids....hence, "new" activations could be down?

      I'm still on iPhone 12 Pro Max and see no reason

  • I admin a fleet of iDevices and have a good amount of experience with a range of Apple models.

    I personally use Android (Google and Samsung devices mostly).

    Between the two, the Android devices are superior in both form and function, IMO.

    Just compare a Samsung S8 or S9 Ultra tablet to an iPad pro 10th gen and you will see what I am talking about.

    • Just compare a Samsung S8 or S9 Ultra tablet to an iPad pro 10th gen and you will see what I am talking about.

      I suspect it has far more to do with price than anything. iPhones are just too damned expensive, even on the low end. You can get a decently built, solidly performing Android phone for $200 or less. If you're not an iTunes user, or iMessage devotee, there just isn't any real reason to pick an Apple phone over an Android phone.

      • I used to be an Android user and an ardent iPhone critic, but I switched a few months ago. Iâ(TM)m tired of the continuous drive for huge phone screens, and right now the iPhone 13 mini is absolutely the only small phone worth owning. So thatâ(TM)s what I have gone with, and itâ(TM)s amazing. Being able to fit my phone into my jeans pocket feels like itâ(TM)s 2012 again, except I have almost all the power of a current gen device. Sadly though, Apple have discontinued the mini line so it
  • Is it just price? The iPhone SE is around $400, but that seems pretty stiff. I know my kid's locked into Apple for their messaging app because it's like a little social network with their friends. And I know if you go as far back as high school being a kid with the "green" chat bubble was bad news. The equivalent to wearing cheap cloths and handmedowns when I was a kid.

    Hell, at one point my kid wanted one of the fancy Samsung phones but the messaging app kept them on Apple. Samsung briefly made their ph
    • Yes it is price. Unless you can compare similar phones at a similar price it is simply a matter of those who can (afford) vs those (who better budget their money out of necessity).

    • Even at $400 is more expensive than a lot of Android Phones. And that $400 will only get you 64 GB of storage and a 4.7" screen with big bezels and a single camera lens.

      A lot better deals with stuff like the Samsung A54 for instance. Maybe the iPhone SE has more horsepower, but the A54 has more than what most people need.

      Also, even "normies" like to be free to do what they want with their phone. Just better customization and not being quite as locked in.

    • Re:Anyone know how/why normies pick Android? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by brunes69 ( 86786 ) <slashdot.keirstead@org> on Thursday April 25, 2024 @01:21PM (#64424650)

      Gen Z and Gen A in the US increasingly don't use SMS for messaging. They have caught up with the rest of the world and use WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, and other applications.

      As they do this, their dependency on iMessage wanes dramatically. When you keep in touch with your friends all via Instagram and TikTok there is no reason to be bound to iPhone anymore.

      • Thanks I should have thought of that it seems so obvious when somebody says it. I'm actually surprised that hasn't shown up as a risk in Apple's stock reports. The iMessage Mafia is that big a deal.

        Also hilariously I wonder if iMessage is gradually going to become associated with old people like regular SMS messaging is. I think it definitely will if Apple doesn't do something to stop it and I just wonder what that something might be

      • Gen Z and Gen A in the US increasingly don't use SMS for messaging.

        Gen Whatever is a stupid fucking way to describe populations. Population growth is a continuous function. Placing arbitrary markers can be useful for scientists, but for the average population, all it does is increase social agitation... which I assume is the purpose. So stop referring to Gen Z or whatever. They are NOT a homogeneous whole. It's alright, go ahead and say, "ok boomer", despite me not being from that arbitrarily defined generation.

        "Younger demographics appear to have given up SMS and use othe

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by brunes69 ( 86786 )

          [Insert old man shouting at cloud image]

          I don't care what they are called. The simple fact is that when people meet nowadays, they don't even exchange phone numbers. They exchange Insta and TikTok handles.

          You can shout at the sky all you want, your opinions aren't relevant frankly.

          • [Insert old man shouting at cloud image]

            On the bright side, I predicted this.

            You can shout at the sky all you want, your opinions aren't relevant frankly.

            Correct. The exact same as your opinions not mattering. Regardless of any of the stupid crap, Grabbing pieces of a continuous function and calling them discrete will still lead you astray. Listen or not. I do not particularly care. :)

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Affluent parent buying overpriced fashion accessory for their children.

      Ostracized because their messages are the wrong color? Good grief.

      Apple sounds like a cult at this point.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      Yes, it's price. New Apple phones are $1000+. Even many Androids are at that price level.

      $400 for an Apple phone can be expensive, especially in this day and age. And phone subsidies have basically dropped to nothing, so the "free phone" is really a "here's your balance you still need to pay off" loan.

      That, and if you really needed a phone, a cheap Tracphone can be had for under $50 with service, running some old Android version on a barely able to run it smartphone hardware. But it's effectively free.

      And s

    • The iPhone SE is around $400

      The $400 iPhone is outfeatured by Android phones priced around $200. And kids around here (EU) communicate with WhatsApp, which is crossplatform.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by flink ( 18449 )

      For me it's a few things:

      * I can run a real version of Firefox with plugin support
      * I can still get a phone with fingerprint unlock
      * I can still get a phone with a headphone jack

  • So Apple stil has 33% while the rest of the market is split by a group? Sure its a decrease, but it;s not like they're a minor player now

    • This is Android's strength. The fact that there are multiple choices, drives competition, which lowers prices and increases selection in terms of quality and features. I wouldn't *want* one Android brand to dominate. Any one company that dominates a market, will always make that market intolerable for customers.

  • Or whatever those apple fanboys are foaming about these days.

  • Seriously, my iPhone 12 is great and I have no real need to replace it. Meanwhile cheapo Androids show their age almost immediately. Disposable electronics.

    I guess a $10 pair of boots might seem like a good deal, but you have to repair them more than the $50 pair.

    • I am in the same boat-- no compelling reason to upgrade my 12. I might do it when the next one comes out; 4 years is reasonable for me, although I expected to do it after 3. The Samsung phones seem like a stretch to get 3 years out of.

    • My Pixel 6 (2021) still runs and performs like it did when it was new.

      Google recently announced 8 or 10 year support for the latest Pixel phones. So, I think that long running support is no longer exclusive to Apple devices.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by labnet ( 457441 )

      I buy the Samsung A5 series. Last one lasted 5 years, my current one comes with 5 years of updates so expect it to last 5 years as well at about 1/3 the cost of Apple.

    • I don't think most Apple users are like you. Most buy the new model every year, regardless of whether their old model is still working.

  • And I am not too proud of either one, they each have their good side & bad side, iPhone is good hardware and IPhone is locked down so no side loading software it sort of sucks on the software side, On the otherhand android hardware varies depending on what you buy the advantage is I can side load on android with f-droid making that a nice choice,

    I will say both the Apple store and Googe playstore suck with too much spammy choices making finding the good apps like finding the needle in the haystack bu

  • If this data includes non-phone based Android devices (car audio systems, refrigerators, washing machines, tablets, home automation controllers, etc), it would make sense that this number is growing suddenly. There are not a lot of these type of systems running iOS, but many of them are running Android.

  • Apple is launching the iPhone 17 extra turbo special xss plus edition. This one is really special. Spatula display, synchs with your fingers, connects all your captive apple platform data. Only $2999 for the 714GB edition. It also has USB-C

    • I think you mean "714MB version". Apple would never provide so much storage for such a low price.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      I wish it would sync with your fingers. Face unlock is crap, bring back the fingerprint sensor. Even under screen is fine, although obviously the back is the ideal place for it, followed by the power button.

  • The EU must investigate Apple to understand why it is using its "monopoly power" to decrease its sales in the mobile phone market, thereby depriving app developers of an opportunity to sell more apps to iPhone customers and reducing the opportunity of 3rd party repair shops to fix iPhones AND the unfair situation this creates for 3rd party browsers and app stores to establish themselves on the iPhone platform.

    Fines must be issued!!!

  • Wrong analysis (Score:3)

    by CAIMLAS ( 41445 ) on Thursday April 25, 2024 @05:58PM (#64425622)

    This is like saying that the car that slows down after crossing the finishline first, is slowest.

    Apple has US phone market dominance, the only thing that's decreased is the percentage of new activations. That means they're reaching market saturation, if anything.

    Add to that the fact that 5-8 year old iPhones are still perfectly functional and useful, in most cases, in contrast to Android devices which are lucky to get updates after the first year or two...

    • This is like saying that the car that slows down after crossing the finishline first, is slowest.

      Huh? In what capitalist world has any market ever had a finishing line? Are you a senior manager at Intel by any chance? Do you have a masters degree in resting on laurels?

  • I own an iPhone XR, still works and still gets updates. 6 years old. I feel no need to buy a new one.

  • US government free money from the lockdowns is over. And interest rates are up. Sale of all luxury goods including iThings are down.

  • I don't like Apple, but I can't imagine cheering for Google.
    These are difficult times indeed.

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