iPad Isn't "Killing" Netbook Sales, According To Paul Thurrott 457
mantis2009 writes "Paul Thurrott, the prolific technology analyst and Windows expert, reacts strongly to an article highlighted on Slashdot. Thurrott takes numbers from IDC and the Wall Street Journal, indicating that netbook sales have not in any meaningful way been affected by sales of Apple's tablet computer, the iPad. Money quote: '[N]etbooks and sub-12-inch machines will sell 45.6 million units in 2011 and 60.3 million in 2013. If I remember the numbers from 2009, they were 10 percent of all PCs, or about 30 million units. Explain again how the iPad will beat that. Please. Even the craziest iPad sales predictions are a small percentage of that.'"
Watch the messenger (Score:5, Interesting)
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Paul is also ignoring key issues, saying that 'he doubts' things instead of citing any data whatsoever, and tossing out a lot of vested-interest PC geek magazine predictions as if they are fact.
Par for the course from someone whose wallet size is correlated with the performance of the PC market.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
To be fair, though, the idea that sales were affected was based on asking people what they were going to buy, not what they already bought. People talk a lot of crap. So it's best to ignore what they say and concentrate on what they do. Not many people are going to not buy a netbook because of an iPad, because they satisfy different markets. Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go. iPads are great for..well...uh..say you wanted an expensive, easy to scratch laptop but wanted to have to hold it awkwardly all the time you were using it, didn't want to actually type anything on it etc. They're great for that, I guess.
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Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Informative)
So, as far as I'm concerned Netbooks are alive and well.
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Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
So....netbook sales are dropping?
Except that they aren't. What is dropping is the rate of growth in sales. Well what do you expect? Lots of people went out and bought one when they first came out. Now they have one. They don't need another one yet (netbooks have not been around for the standard life cycle of a computer).
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
This. It would be foolish to assume that the iPad hasn't affected netbook sales SOMEWHAT, and may be responsible for the slowdown...but that slowdown was coming anyway. The "saturated market" theory makes a lot of sense.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the people that bought an iPad originally intended to buy a netbook. That being said, even if every single iPad buyer had at one time been a potential netbook owner, that would account for a very small portion of overall netbook sales.
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Like any marketing checklist comparison, you only include items which your preferred solution has, and miss out all the features that the competitor has that you product doesn't. And then you make errors on top.
First the errors.
1) Yes you can dump your camera on to it.
2) Yes you can plug a real keyboard into it.
3) Both products are connectible to VGA and HDMI monitors.
Now some of the omissions.
iPad has a touch screen - HP Netbook does not.
iPad has built in GPS - HP Netbook does not.
iPad has built in 3G cell
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
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And if you haven't had an iPad, you would probably have assumed a healthier position in a comfortable chair. And your wife wouldn't have had to learn to sleep with you doing weird things in bed.
In other words, it's quite likely that his arguments are more suited to general public than yours.
Regards,
Ruemere
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If your wife sleeps while you're doing weird things in bed then you're doing it wrong.
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The camera connector kit that enables most of these things is $30, which is cheaper than expected, coming from Apple. $30 is about 6 to 9 cups of reasonable coffee. That is hardly expensive these days.
So Ebenezer Scrooge would rather buy a netbook than an iPad. He isn't most people.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
Netbooks are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.
Correct.
iPads are great for people who want to throw a small pc in a bag and have access to the net, type emails etc on the go.
Sounds pretty accurate too.
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I am not able to legally install whatever software I want to and use its computing abilities to its fullest just because their manufacturer decided to intentionally cripple it.
What's that got to do with the iPad? There's no law against jailbreaking it.
Regardless, you're playing semantics. Whether you want to call it a "PC" or not is entirely irrelevant to the issue of the iPad's functionality. It serves as a computer you can toss into a bag to check your email, browse the web, etc. What you prefer to label it does not alter the actual functionality of the device in any way whatsoever.
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There is a law against jailbreaking, it's called the DMCA. Moreover, you violate Apples TOS and invalidate your warranty.
How does jailbreaking violate copyright? You know, the 'C' in DMCA. And voiding your warranty is not illegal.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
That's simply not true.
First, newer netbook chipsets built within the last year should handle 720p just fine. The only thing holding it back on the web is Flash being a bloated pig, and if you have to use Flash, those videos won't play on the iPad anyway, making this a moot point. With the new Flash 10 betas, even recent netbooks should be able to handle 720p Flash videos [gizmodo.com].
Second, most tasks (word processing, web browsing, sending/receiving email, etc.) don't require much CPU power at all. A netbook should be able to handle those tasks with ease. Thus, they do a lot of things reasonably well. They just don't happen to be the things you care about.
Stop right there. The iPad is a cool device, but as a long-time Apple zealot, even I can't argue that it can do everything a netbook can do. I currently use a real laptop, but if I did have a netbook, I could still run Finale or Sibelius (clumsily); I could still run Apache, PHP, and a web browser to prototype a web site; I could still compile and debug software; I could still run Photoshop (slowly); and so on.
Eventually, the iPad will have equivalents for many of these tools, but they don't exist yet. Thus, at least for now, the right tool depends on what you want to do with it.
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Yikes! Using a remote desktop solution might be okay for managing servers, but I can barely stand the performance of VNC from across my house at 802.11g speeds. I can't imagine the sheer torture of trying to use it for everyday tasks, much less connecting to a home computer served by a DSL connection over a 3G connection. That would make the slowest netboo
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> Netbooks may not have a large keyboard, but it is physical, and it has keys.
I have an Apple Bluetooth keyboard I use with my iPad. It is physical, it has keys. The keys are 100% scale, not 89% as on a netbook. It is so small and light, that even when combined with iPad, the whole thing is half he weight and size of a netbook.
> Flash runs fine on every netbook I've tested it on. FUD.
No, Flash runs like shit. Unless you are using Windows, it can't access the GPU, which means it can't play full screen
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
I for one will buy either a Tablet or a Netbook. Not an iPad though, a true Tablet, with LAN access to my files, Tethering, SD card, USB ports and video out. I'm holding out for all those Tablet pre-announcements, to see if one actually pans out.
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I think flash games would run OK on a netbook. DOS games in Dosbox too.
Anyway, one of the reasons to buy a netbook (with the OS that the main PC has) instead of the iPad is so I can "run the same types of applications as you main machine", but have them on a portable device. I want to browse the internet? OK, I can have Firefox with various extensions (noscript/abp...) installed on both devices. I want to watch a movie? OK, the same player and the same codecs on both devices, so I know that if it plays on m
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
Sign me up!
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Why do people buy laptops when they already own desktops? the answer: portability, portability and portability.
And the iPad doesn't offer that?
Different third-party apps, all non-free (and not only in the FSF)
There are both free gratis and free libre software on the App Store.
and wholly unsupported by the device manufacturer
I wasn't aware Toshiba supported Photoshop (as an example)?
And your 'adapter' solutions all fail at the single thing the iPad has for it: portability!
What? How big do you think these adapters are?
Unlike an iPad, you *can* run applications meant for PCs on a portable device.
Yeah, poorly.
And I guarantee you, every single game that runs slowly on a netbook won't run at all on an iPad, with many that'd run perfectly fine (ie, most Flash and indie games) *also* won't run at all on an iPad.
You can guarantee, for example, that Plants vs Zombies won't run on an iPad?
You're trying to twist "is wholly uncompatible with the software most people want to run" in an advantage of the iPad, and that's simply idiotic, sorry.
No, you're trying to pretend that if you can't run the same binary on an iPad as you can on your PC, then you can't perform the same task. That's simply idiotic, sorry.
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So what you're saying is: iPads are no good for having access to the net and email while on the go? Uh, right.
I guess what you're also saying is that people who value mobility won't pay 30% more to get something that is half the size, half the weight, and has double the battery life? And doubles as a reader?
You can't knock the iPad keyboard in a context of a netbook because netbook keyboards SUCK. They are 89% scale. I have a friend who carried a Bluetooth keyboard with his netbook for the past year and rep
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
Seems like a worthy market to be in. Isn't that actually the stated purpose of netbooks... providing a PC operating system in an ultraportable form factor?
No, it's a crappy market to be in. Very few people actually want an ultraportable PC. What they want is an ultraportable device. The fact that the most capable solution at the time was a miniature PC notebook doesn't mean that that is specifically what most people wanted. It's just all they had available.
Aside from that... the iPod Touch was really just Apple's (2nd) attempt at a Palm Pilot.
Newton predates Palm. So, Apple's first attempt was made years before the US Robotics Pilot?
It did pretty well
You could just stop there, because your "why" is just that "people are stupid". While I don't agree with your assessment, either way, nothing's changed in that regard between the iPod Touch launch and the iPad launch.
The iPad is a jumbo-sized Touch with a few nifty extras.
The same way a swimming pool is just a jumbo-sized bath tub.
Through the magic of advertising, Apple has made them seem attractive to a huge number of people, but the success so far has been pretty stunning, and there's a good chance the lustre will fade once early buyers realize it's too big to fit in a pocket and doesn't offer much that a smaller, less expensive, but otherwise virtually identical product with equal or greater sex appeal has had all along.
Again, you're projecting stupidity on other people's choices, and (regardless of the correctness of your opinion) somehow expect them to change. Ain't gonna happen.
Personally, I'm looking to see what the next generation of netbooks brings to the table. I'd much rather have the keyboard, and if somebody sells a model with 1080p HDMI out and an SSD at $500 I'm going to be a very happy camper.
Good for you. I hope they make what you want. But most people do not want what you want. You're a geek (or a nerd, or whatever you want to call it), and your intelligence appears (based on your surely unbiased assessment) to far exceed that of the average person. On what bizzaro world do you think that the needs of someone like you, technologically speaking, would be the norm?
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> Isn't that actually the stated purpose of netbooks... providing a PC operating system in an ultraportable form factor?
The purpose of a netbook is to take the "net" with you in a "book". It's to have a portable Web browser and email and video with you.
Yes, iPad is better at this than netbooks are.
People fucking hate PC's. Nobody wants to take a PC with them except PC hobbyists. People want to take the Web and email and video with them.
> the iPod Touch was really just Apple's (2nd) attempt at a Palm P
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1) Since when is 1 million of a new tech product sold in the first month described as "only"? Thats half a $billon in sales for a single product for a month. That's no rational person's notion of "only".
2) For that month, the 3G iPads were not on sale;the sales were constrained by supply; and the only country the iPad was so far on sale in was the USA.
40 million per year, of all iPad models WORLDWIDE? No problem. It'll sell far more than that.
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I doubt it. The tablet market is going to become a very crowded space very shortly with several potential competitors who have been developing their products for much longer than Apple has.
While the iPad won't fail, it won't enjoy the same long-term success the iPhone has had.
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Yes, like I'm sure the 90 pre-orders for the JooJoo tablet really put a dent in Apple's sales.
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I doubt it. The tablet market is going to become a very crowded space very shortly
HAHAHA.
Oh, you were serious? Two things. First, the "tablet market" was going to become very crowded months ago. Apple is the only company to actually deliver, which is key. MS Courier was just a concept rendering, and HP's Slate has hit a huge roadblock that was so bad that they ditched Windows 7 and bought Palm.
The second thing is that, yes, there will be plenty of tablets available, but how are they going to compete with the iPad? The tablet market that the iPad is going to be facing will be similar to t
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Funny)
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Well, do you honestly think that iPad will sell 40 millions units a year and keep it up? I don't. Besides, iPad has been out over a month now and is still only at 1 million units
So that's 12 million a year at that rate? Even if you account for preorders, that's probably 6 million a year. Given that the second iPhone sold literally 10 times faster than the first one, I'd be getting pretty worried as a netbook vendor.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem is, most people pretty much think of the iPad as exactly what it *is*: a much bigger and bit more powerful iPhone.
My wife, who is unlike me straight right bang in the middle of the target group for the iPad, looks at an iPod Touch, and then she looks at an iPad, and she doesn't see the slightest similarity. To her, these are two completely unrelated devices. One is a music and video player that can also run games and show a web site on a useless tiny screen, the other is a web browsing and email computer that has lots of other applications, games on a big screen, video, and that also can play music. No similarity. None at all.
And you can argue with me all you like, if you tried to argue with her, she would just think you are being silly.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
Netbooks sales are in freefall
The growth of netbook sales has slowed, but it's still positive growth. That means that netbook sales are still increasing. Not at all a "freefall".
It's not your reading comprehension skills that failed you since you understood exactly what the previous article intended for you to understand (read: you were misled). Instead, it was your critical thinking skills that failed you when you didn't pick up on the deception.
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If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover?
I believe most people would refer to that as market saturation. There is a finite number of people needing to purchase a new computer in a given period of time and the explosive growth of netbooks could very well be slowing now that a large percentage of everyone who wants to buy one has. Still, I think the entire debate is baseless because the two products (iPad and netbook) serve very different purposes. The iPad is best suited to enable the consumption of media (movies, music, web, ebooks, etc) whereas n
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But those are what an iPad is for as well... (Score:3, Insightful)
The iPad is best suited to enable the consumption of media (movies, music, web, ebooks, etc) whereas netbooks are most often used as simply small, inexpensive notebooks. Every person I know who owns a netbook uses it for work computing- Office, presentations, e-mail, scientific computing, I even use my old Eee 900 for editing and managing photos when I travel.
Currently the iPad is better suited to consumption.
But that's a software issue... all of the things you mention - presentations, editing documents, em
Re:Watch the facts (Score:2)
Not to say that there aren't going to be SOME people who decide to buy an iPad over a netbook (just like there are going to be some people who decide to buy a Livescribe smartpen over a netbook) but the graph of prospective "iPad cannibalization" shows that by far the iPad is more likely to "kill" sales of Apple's own notebook/iPod numbers. In any event, the fallacy in all of this killing talk is in assuming that every iPad sale must come at the expense of some other electronic tool that would've been boug
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The overlap is for grandma, who needed some kind of web device, and wasn't going to spend much at all on it. Until now, she would have gotten the cheapest laptop possible: a netbook. As of today, her geeky grandson is getting her an iPad. That's where the overlap is.
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I'd argue that a significant proportion of people who buy the iPad want the latest device from Apple and don't really think much beyond that.
Hell, when the iPad Nano comes out, they'll queue up for it in droves, tweeting how much better it is than their iPod Touch, because Pad is better than Pod.
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
Netbooks compete against laptops and desktops as a low cost, ultra-portable alternative. They're not very suitable for the things tablets are designed for, and tablets are not suitable for many of the things netbooks are designed for. The only product line the iPad could possibly put out of business is the Kindle and other e-readers. Maybe if PDAs were still around, they'd be competing in that market niche as well. But netbooks? No. Though a netbook with a detachable multitouch screen and proper online cloud support services (media store, cloud backup, etc.) might. But no, Jobs needed to start the whole brouhaha by thumping his chest about tablets being the end of netbooks.
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If the growth rate drops off and is replaced by growth in iPads, how in the world is that not a takeover?
What makes you think the two are related? If netbook and iPad users are completely separate populations, you can still see the same behavior: one market gets saturated after a few years of sales, and a completely different market takes off.
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It's silly. The ipad is interesting. It has by far the best touch screen software I've ever seen. But IMO, touch screens are loathsome especially for typing. There is no way that I'm buying an ipad rather than a cheaper, more capable, netbook. At least not unless and until "they" somehow fix ipad data entry. Which may or may not be possible.
Yes I could buy a keyboard for the ipad. But why not buy a cheaper netbook that comes with a keyboard tidily packaged?
I'm sure that I have a lot of company.
My wi
Re:Watch the messenger (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:Watch the messenger (Score:5, Informative)
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you would have to have a negative growth rate to indicate that netbooks are loosing market share
Market share is not what you think it is.
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you would have to have a negative growth rate to indicate that netbooks are loosing market share
Market share is not what you think it is.
Sorry, did not mean "market share" meant "sales"
1 million (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:1 million (Score:5, Interesting)
Netbooks Vs. iPad? (Score:5, Informative)
I think if the iPad had a competitive price point it might be an interesting battle, one in which the iPad might win... But right now the iPad is priced like a laptop. If you look at the typical Netbook price and the cheapest iPad then we are talking above 100% price increase.
ePC - £199
iPad - £429
"Full" Laptop - £400
However what you might see happen is the iPad gets bundled with 3G mobile services and winds up costing a fair bit less in relative terms... Netbooks have tried to bundle with 3G but I think it is safe to say it has been fairly unsuccessful.
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Re:Netbooks Vs. iPad? (Score:5, Interesting)
"Netbooks have tried to bundle with 3G but I think it is safe to say it has been fairly unsuccessful."
I think it's fairly safe to say bullshit - might be true for your neck of the woods, but around here, bundling a 3G dongle is a big hit (EU - Denmark), in fact, such a big hit some of the big carriers are having trouble delivering the amount of bandwith needed.
Oh, oh! I know! (Score:2)
Based on projections ... (Score:4, Insightful)
So let me get this straight, the argument here is that the iPad isnt effecting netbook sales because the projected number of netbooks to be sold in 2011 hasn't been changed in the last month ...
Seriously, someone fucking fire timothy, he hasn't posted anything that wasn't a blatent slashvertisment or flat out obviously wrong in at least 2 years.
Why don't we wait until someone gets some real sales numbers and there has been more than a month before we start talking about how its effecting the market.
I don't think the iPad is going to effect much either, but I don't try to back that up using sales PROJECTIONS made by people who aren't actually doing the selling. The WSJ must be pretty damn smart to predict the future with 0 input to base it on.
The Difference Between Affect And Effect (Score:2, Informative)
Generally speaking, affect is a verb and effect is a noun. When you affect something, you produce an effect on it. Even in the passive voice, something would be affected, not effected.
Re:Based on projections ... (Score:4, Insightful)
ie. the most optimistic projections are saying about 3-4 million ipads, now if one assumes that they are going to take that directly from netbooks (something I seriously doubt) then the future projected size of the market is very relevant. If the market is expected to be 46 million than it can be assumed the ipad even if it reached the optimistic end of predictions will have only a small impact on the netbook market
however what is more likely is that the ipads are stealing sales from ebook readers and there is also a large group of apple fanatics that would buy steve jobs farts if he bottled it. Thus significantly shrinking the possible effect on netbook sales.
So what he is saying is, if the market is supposed to be ~50million for these small computer devices, how the fuck does a million or so units of that market taken by apple equal the the end of netbooks.
Its not a static market (Score:2)
Android tablets are coming out every day. ARM based Netbooks are selling for less than $100.
If you believe people who plan on buying a sub-$200 netbook will really buy a $400 Ipad, you have got
a screw loose.
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Could you please provide a link to where these ARM based netbooks or Android tablets are being sold? Cheapest netbooks I've seen start at $400 CDN and functional tablets have been pretty much vapourware..
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Re:Its not a static market (Score:4, Insightful)
None of the linked products are competitors to the iPad or a typical netbook. With a 800x480 screen and puny single-core ARM they have specs equivalent to a high end phone - except that a phone can fit in a standard trouser pocket and make voice calls.
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puny single-core ARM they have specs equivalent to a high end phone
The iPad has a "puny single-core ARM" that's not significantly faster than the 1GHz Snapdragon that is currently in many high end phones.
Re:Its not a static market (Score:4, Insightful)
I find it funny that people get so emotional over someone else's choice in computers.
I also find it funny that only on Slashdot you can find people comparing computing devices that were engineer well enough to actually revive a basically dead touch tablet market, to pieces of crap thrown together at a Chinese assembly plant.
Let's use Slashdot's mandatory car metaphor as an example:
Sure we can all drive to work on a Vespa scooter, but I prefer to drive my Honda automobile. There is a tangible difference between having the capability to drive to work, and actually wanting to use the vehicle to drive to work. The same applies to computers.
Sure I can spend a lot of time figuring out how to get that $80-$190 off brand device to do what I want, or I can spend a little more money and get something useful like a $300-$400 Asus netbook or $400 - $800 Apple iPad.
That's not even taking reliability into consideration, I have yet found anything that is both really cheap and reliable. Face it the only thing those cheap pieces of crap found only on ebay are good at is to provide some flimsy evidence to a Slashdot poster so that they can say "See I can find something cheaper that technically could do something similar to that expensive computer you like so much!!"
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Paul thurrott an expert? (Score:3, Insightful)
Seriously? This guy has been so wrong on apple over the years that I think taking his opinion on apple or anything tech would be like believing exRaider Jamarcus Russell that he was doing well at QB.
seriously slashdot should have higher standards than Thurott
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How is this flamebait? Seriously?
Here is just ONE example of Thurrott and how he has no creed.
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/592E3270-32C8-4852-975C-162E788749CA.html [roughlydrafted.com]
And there are others like:
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/24671/ [macdailynews.com]
Or Apple copying Microsoft?
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/10489/ [macdailynews.com]
Or just generally being an idiot?
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/23845/ [macdailynews.com]
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/10584/ [macdailynews.com]
http://macdailynews [macdailynews.com]
Two different market segments (Score:5, Insightful)
See, I can get actual WORK done on a netbook. I can do paperwork, make website edits, do a whole lot of other things without having to lug around (or pay for) a much more expensive high end laptop...and I don't see myself replacing that netbook with a bigger laptop anytime soon unless I'm stuck using higher end systems for a client. If I need to do something really high end, I use my desktop at home or whatever a client dumps on my desk for work purposes. Otherwise, the netbook is all I'd need...the only real reason I had my old laptop was for gaming, and I'm better off doing that on my desktop at home anyway.
The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments. Tablets are fun, show-off things that you use to waste time (though just like netbooks, they really suck for gaming). But you can actually get work done on a netbook and a good one will cost you less, too. Sorry, tablet fans, but that's how it is. They may be super cool to you and you think that you paid 500 bucks for a great thing, but you know in your heart that you paid 500 bucks for a goof-off device.
Re:Two different market segments (Score:5, Insightful)
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Given the iPhone OS 3.2's now hooking Bluetooth keyboards into the keyboard API(Not to mention the Apple Dock keyboard), I'd easily say that no, the iPad IS meant for content creation.
It's just not ment to ape the Netbook formfactor. If I'm at my favorite bar, there's enough room in my bag for a stand, an ipad, and a bluetooth minikeyboard for use with things like SSHTerm should I be called about critical failures with something or another.
Re:Two different market segments (Score:4, Insightful)
My feelings as well.... I just plunked down the money for a 64GB iPad 3G, which was quite frankly a lot MORE expensive than most netbooks or half the notebooks out there. Why? Because I'm a believer in the idea that it's in a class of its own ... not just a "netbook killer/competitor" or what-not.
I've never had a netbook or a notebook that was worth a darn if you had to use it while standing up, for example. And I wind up doing quite a bit of that when I go out someplace and have to wait in long lines. (Ever notice how a lot of people try to take a notebook computer with them to use on lunch breaks during the business day, and then they waste a good 10 or 15 minutes in line to order their food, while carrying the thing under one arm, closed and shut off or in "sleep" mode?)
And furthermore, the respective strengths and weaknesses of a tablet type computer like the iPad depend a LOT on the software. If it's intelligently designed for the touch-screen environment, it may be GREAT. If it's a port of something designed for a keyboard and mouse originally? It may be frustrating and useless. People saying the iPad is no good for gaming, for example, are just focusing on certain types of games and not others. I was just playing "Crazy Birds HD" on mine earlier tonight, and it's IDEAL for a touch-screen environment. I think the board games lend themselves extremely well to the touch-screen setup too. Scrabble for iPad does an excellent job of demoing the possibilities, including letting multiple players use iPod touches or iPhones as the holders of their letter tiles, and the screen turning so its oriented properly for each player sitting at a table with the iPad in the middle, as each player takes a turn.
The iPad is also "instant on", most of the time. I understand a notebook/netbook is similar if you just leave it powered on but put it to sleep whenever you're not using it for a few minutes ... but that whole sleep/wake thing doesn't work nearly as well as the custom OS in an iPad or iPhone. It'll eat your battery up a lot faster, for starters ... (Hence the "hibernate" mode most portables offer along with plain "sleep" .... but coming out of hibernation takes a little while as the system reloads the saved state of the system from the hard drive.)
Lastly, even *if* I want to use a full-size bluetooth keyboard with the iPad ... at least I can do so on-demand and have a "best of both worlds" scenario where I can carry just the tablet when I like, but use it more like a traditional computer when I like. With a netbook, I'm still stuck carrying around the keyboard at ALL times and can't just opt to do everything by touching the screen.
Re:Two different market segments (Score:5, Insightful)
Why on earth wouldn't paying $500 for a goof-off device be a good thing? It's just the right size for some idle browsing or watching movies, and small and light enough to be an easy carry. $500 bucks may be a lot if you're shopping for a netbook or a light laptop, but remember that not too long ago we paid this much for rather crappy portable dvd players.
Actually I plan on using mine for work too. The things that come to mind immediately are:
- e-reader/browser for reference material. I don't always have a twin monitor setup available, and the iPad makes a great e-reader for reference books. For this sort of work the screen beats a typical netbook, though it won't replace my e-paper reader for heavy reading anytime soon.
- taking notes in meetings. It may not be the best device for this, but it does let me quickly draw diagrams as well as write text, and it is thin enough to slip into my leather folder for easy carrying.
- Capturing ideas. Again the ability to do some quick diagrams come in real handy for this. Netbooks, laptops or even desktops kind of suck for this, as the drawing tools (mouse + primitives) distract from the thought process, whereas a tablet lets you draw naturally (fingers on a touchscreen).
I am by no means convinced yet that the iPad is the better choice for my particular line of work, but it sure hit the ground running. The fact that it lets me goof of in ways hereto unimagined is just a bonus... by the way, what gave you the idea that gaming on iPads suck? The thing just hit the market but there's already a couple of great games available. Different games than we play on our desktops, to be sure....
Anyways, I am not sure how useful this thing will turn out to be... for sure, it is a whole different way of working. But if it turns out to be not so good, at least making someone else happy with it should prove easy.
The problem with Slashdot is the same (Score:5, Insightful)
Worked like a charm for me. And I do a lot of .NET development and SQL stuff... ....
The problem that a lot of folks have with understanding why tablets just aren't that much a threat to netbooks is that netbooks and tablets sate two different market segments.
And the problem with people that think the iPad lives in a different space is that they do not realize how few people need to do things like .NET development that cannot be done on an iPad.
Consummer vs. Producer device (Score:2)
And the problem with people that think the iPad lives in a different space is that they do not realize how few people need to do things like .NET development that cannot be done on an iPad.
Still, there are fundamental difference in the way the devices are designed.
- the iPad is mainly a device designed with a "consumer" mind set. It's great to have around in the living room to watch video, listen to music, read e-books, read web pages (note the "read" verb) and maybe a few games. In short, the user is just a consumer of available media. For starter it lacks a real decent input device like a real practical keyboard. Not that its bad for its intended usage - it is not. A keyboard is not needed
iPad works fine for textual production, and others (Score:3, Informative)
- the iPad is mainly a device designed with a "consumer" mind set.
I totally disagree. It's a large flat touch screen with one button and a large number of input (touch, bluetooth, network) and output (video, network, display) options. It is anything software makes it.
For starter it lacks a real decent input device like a real practical keyboard.
I think you missed the part where I said "I can type very fast on it". Is it better than a physical keyboard? No. But I can type almost as fast due to the lar
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
I would suggest that for most buyers, netbooks are goof-off devices too. The fact that you had to attach a separate monitor, keyboard and mouse would seem to suggest that netbooks really aren't intended for work either, you can do it, but without slinging some peripherals into the mix, it's not very comfortable for work use.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Tablets are fun, show-off things that you use to waste time (though just like netbooks, they really suck for gaming). But you can actually get work done on a netbook and a good one will cost you less, too. Sorry, tablet fans, but that's how it is. They may be super cool to you and you think that you paid 500 bucks for a great thing, but you know in your heart that you paid 500 bucks for a goof-off device.
Not unless you count ALL web browsing as a waste, most email, and perhaps reading in general. Let's see, I also have spreadsheets that I keep (and maintain) on my iPad, To Do lists, Keynote presentations (admittedly created on my Mac), a calculator, financial information programs, sketchpad, and a thousand research PDFs (Papers), and yes, games. Sure, I won't be running R on my iPad, but I can easily do my thinking and research on it... And goof-off when I need to.
All in a convenient form-factor, free from
End of the world (Score:2)
Paul Thurrott knows the world ends in 2012. He only quoted netbook sales for 2011 and 2013.
Not much impact... already leveling off (Score:5, Insightful)
Netbook sales were already leveling off. Looking at the sales figures, they have continued their downward growth trend that started months before the iPad was released. I have no idea how this is stretched into an iPad effect.
MacBook Air anyone? (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe iPad sales are cutting into netbooks, maybe not. But what makes people think Apple can keep this up?
The MacBook Air looked like the granddaddy of netbooks, it was shiny and hot; and a year or two after its release, its just another expensive, light, and slow laptop for Mac users with too much cash.
The same is likely going to happen with iPads. Apple pushed the thing out the door quickly, but low-cost tablets have been in the pipeline for a couple of years, and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs than the iPad and no software restrictions this year.
The "likely" $200 tablet (Score:4, Interesting)
and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs
Why then is the Crunchpad (sorry, JooJoo) $500?
Before it was released, it was supposed to be $200 too... I'll believe that price point when I see it.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe iPad sales are cutting into netbooks, maybe not. But what makes people think Apple can keep this up?
The MacBook Air looked like the granddaddy of netbooks, it was shiny and hot; and a year or two after its release, its just another expensive, light, and slow laptop for Mac users with too much cash.
Umm, that was the MacBook Air's market to begin with. It was always a niche device for those with more disposable income than most. The assumption was that you already had a computer and probably a laptop too. Nobody predicted the Macbook Air would change the face of computing.
The same is likely going to happen with iPads. Apple pushed the thing out the door quickly, but low-cost tablets have been in the pipeline for a couple of years, and you're likely going to see $200-$300 tablets with better specs than the iPad and no software restrictions this year.
Wow - I can't wait to login to the iTunes store on one of those $200 tablets and download my favorite apps!
What do you mean it won't run those apps?
The more important question is... (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Dear Paul, (Score:3, Insightful)
Show me a netbook that's projected to sell 10 million units and support a media and application infrastructure that will allow it's manufacturer to continually reap income from the device long after sale?
Thought not.
Come Christmas, the iPad will be *the* tech item to buy.
CorrelationIsNotCausation tag wtf? (Score:4, Insightful)
Now I *know* iPad is killing the netbook (Score:5, Interesting)
The numbers look pretty grim for netbooks since the pre-iPad hype that dominated CES, and they get worse after the iPad introduction and worse again after the iPad shipped. But even so, I wasn't really sure that iPad was killing the netbook until Thurrott said it's not.
Thurrott was pro-tablet right up until Apple reinvented the tablet. Now he will be anti-tablet right up until Microsoft has an iPad copy for him to promote.
The guy is paid by Microsoft and Dell and has no credibility.
He whined and whined and whined about iPhone v1 and v2 not having "such a basic feature" as Copy/Paste and multitasking of 3rd party applications. Then when Microsoft announced they were killing Windows Mobile in 2009 and would be back in 2011 with "Windows Phone 7" which would lack both Copy/Paste and multitasking of 3rd party applications, Thurrott cheered them. So, keeping score: not having Copy/Paste in 2007-2008 during your first 2 years in the phone market is just totally inexcusable, while removing Copy/Paste in 2011 in your 10th year in the phone market is just fine, no biggie.
He also said of Steve Jobs' "Thoughts on Flash" that "he can't disagree more" with it. That shows Thurrott knows nothing about mobiles, where there is no FlashPlayer at all, and nothing about the consumer market, where vendor neutral standardized audio video is not just the norm, it's a religion.
To the actual issue of tablet versus netbook: it's clear that perceptions of the tablet and netbook have been changed, same as iPhone versus the smartphones of 2007. A month ago, HP released an HP Slate teaser video, then just recently they bought Palm and we hear the Slate has been canceled because Windows 7 is apparently not a mobile OS. (You don't say!?) Compared to a netbook, iPad is half the size, half the weight, double the battery life, and 1000 times sexier. It makes a netbook look like a pocket protector. Half the size and weight and double the battery life ... that just can't be argued with. Even with a small Bluetooth keyboard added, iPad is still much more mobile than a netbook. And you can use a 100% scale Bluetooth keyboard and get real typing done.
The netbook had fatal flaws anyway. If you're going to have a keyboard, make it 100% scale. Every PC maker CEO spoke out against netbooks, even when they were most popular. So it would actually be surprising if we could have this Year Of The Tablet in 2010 and not see the netbook be very much affected. Walt Mossberg said iPad replaced 80% of his notebook use in the first week, so where does that leave a netbook? He's a techie. For consumers it is even worse, they are finding iPad replaces 95% of their Mac/PC use.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
He also said of Steve Jobs' "Thoughts on Flash" that "he can't disagree more" with it. That shows Thurrott knows nothing about mobiles, where there is no FlashPlayer at all, and nothing about the consumer market, where vendor neutral standardized audio video is not just the norm, it's a religion.
Actually I think you misrepresented Paul's statements on just about everything there. But in any case you show your ignorance with this statement.
Flash exists on pretty much every Nokia Symbian based smartphone in existence. So that means at least 40% of all smartphones have Flash Mobile. The Nokia tablet range including the N900 phone include full Flash, and it works perfectly fine.
Jobs just has a vendetta against Adobe. Nothing more, nothing less.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /. would not give this guy a platform to rant on. I've written many a rebuttal to his posts simply because he says things simply to be controversial He's an 'expert' in nothing other than being a total asshat
Re: (Score:2)
***Even if he's 100% correct in what he says about the figures, I wish /.***
Ironically, Thurrott is complaining about others doing exactly what you are down on him about. Publishing silly statements based on inadequate research and thinking. I sort of think he's right in this case and I'd also give him some points for having the good grace and good judgment not to disparage the ipad.
Maybe you should make an exception this time. But feel free to unload the next time Thurrott returns to his old ways.
Re: (Score:2)
Don't worry, summer is coming so we'll have iPhone news soon enough! /duck
Re: (Score:2)
I for one welcome our new netbook killing overlords.
Re:Content creation (Score:4, Insightful)
As a content creator, for me, the Ipad just doesn't cut it.
As a plumber, I can tell you that the iPad's not very useful for that, either.
Did you have a point?
Re: (Score:2)
As a plumber, I can tell you that the iPad's not very useful for that, either.
Sure, and I bet you have your wrenches sorted by whether they're good for tightening or loosening.
Re: (Score:2)
I used to shoot commercial video for a living; do you think I used a consumer grade TV as a viewing monitor in the studio or on OB?
I certainly did sort my screens into "good for using while shooting video" and "good for watching finished product on".
Funnily enough, I sorted my computers that way too, since I didn't need a multi core behemoth for browsing the net on the sofa. I got by with a small laptop.
Did you miss the marketing? (Score:2)
That's exactly how it's being marketed. Nowhere do I see or have I seen it being marketed at content creators.
Why would you even try to shoehorn your needs into a device that clearly won't do what you want?