Apple Prepares For the Coming iPod Slump 340
Hugh Pickens writes "Companies like AOL have stagnated along with the products that made them successful as a mature market and downward pressure on prices led to a nasty death spiral, but Saul Hansell writes in the NY Times that Apple has used its amazing six-year run with the iPod to nurture other business lines. Even though the number of iPods sold this quarter grew only 1 percent from the same quarter a year ago, Apple should be able to sustain itself with three business lines that will help it withstand a collapse in the MP3-player market: a continuing revenue stream from the iPods that have already been sold because of the iTunes Store, product upgrades to the iPhone and iPod Touch that are so different that they may well appeal to a significant number of iPod users, and perhaps most significantly, sales of the Macintosh which showed an increase of 51 percent by units and 54 percent by dollars."
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One more reason is China is heavily M$ dominated, even in the media format area. And iPod doesn't play with WMA stuff well.
In the culture side, Chinese like function more than smooth experience. So those FM radio, GPS enabled, video playing, recording, picture taking, video taking media player sell much better than the simple iPods.
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Re:A slump? (Score:5, Insightful)
Spoken as the non-iPod owner you are. Buy music from Amazon and put it in the iPod? How about free podcasts? Audible.com? Transcode your own movies? Download mp4s from bittorrent and play them in your Touch/iPod video? Free apps for jailbroken iPhones/iTouches? All of the above work for me, zero worries. Notice how I can fill my iPod to the brim without even mentioning the iTunes store?
And then, I still that option if I want to exercise it to get commercial music, latest movies an option that you certainly don't have. It might be "absurdly high" for you, it's absurdly convenient for me.
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You can't, but that doesn't imply that iTunes is the only way to load music onto an iPod. There are 3rd-party apps (for Windows and Linux, at least...probably for Mac OS X as well, but iTunes works well enough for me there) that'll manage what's on your iPod.
(Now that I've thought about it a little more, if you use something
Heh (Score:5, Interesting)
I notice you don't say what kind of player you got, but simply that "the interface is fine". I haven't seen any MP3 player with a half-decent interface that isn't an iPod, so if there was another one, I'd love to hear about it, but I doubt it exists. Good work, though: you're playing off the classic "Apple is expensive!" meme, while not giving slashdot readers an alternative to pick apart. That's the sort of vague memethink that gets you to +5!
Apple has a good schtick going on. I don't know why anybody would buy a new Mac or iPod when you can save a ton of money buying one a couple months old (but which looks brand new). But apparently most people want that new-Mac-smell because their refurb and clearance pages are almost always full.
Re:A slump? (Score:4, Insightful)
Do you need to see a YouTube video showing Amazon.com media going onto an iPod?
Your statement is 100% false. It's wrong.
For the audience, the reason why non-iPod owners spread the 'compatibility' myth is because some cute girl asked them "Is that an iPod", and the guy says "No, it's a Creative" and the girl says "Oh" and looks away. Guy gets all mad inside, blames Apple. Instead of enjoying his media player as-it-is, he has to justify his purchase to others.
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I never quite understand this comment. You're not constrained to Apple's applications or usage with the iPod. There are iTunes alternatives and music bought on other stores (except ones using competing DRM solutions) will play fine on iPods.
Where does this idea come from? If anything the lock in is from iTunes Store to iPod, but not at all from iPod to iTunes. It's iTunes Store customers who experience lock in, not iPod customers.
Re:A slump? (Score:4, Interesting)
More like 200 million, at most 15%, are middle class and buying luxuries. Note that middle class there is less voracious than in USA. It's debatable, but not much larger for a few years. [/stultifying pedantry].
Re:A slump? (Score:4, Interesting)
The iTunes application does support Arabic, but when you sync the music to the iPod, you just see a blank space where the song name would go.
Someone did hack together Hebrew support on the iPod, which tackles the RTL problem, but Arabic needs to be written in cursive, with all the letters connected. It's a solvable rendering problem, but to date, Apple has obviously not felt it to be worth the candle.
Rice before iPods. (Score:3, Insightful)
We are *so* insulated here in the US and Europe. Food prices have inched up here, but nothing like what they've done in developing parts of the world. Maybe we should stop paying farmers to NOT grow food, then maybe people will be
batteries (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:batteries (Score:5, Informative)
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Re:batteries (Score:5, Informative)
No, because that one is user-replaceable...
Re:batteries (Score:4, Informative)
Re:batteries (Score:4, Informative)
Most of those are not spot welded in place. After working in a repair shop for many years, I noticed it was common for many of the coin cells to have spot welded terminals which are then simply soldered onto the PCB. A soldering iron replaces these with ease if you have any soldering skill. Often a standard coin cell socket will go in it's place. Leaving out the socket is a cost cutting move an is seen only on the lowest quality boards made. The battery is replaceable, but not by breaking off it's terminals. Congratulations on getting one of these cheap motherboards. Many of these expect a battery life of about 5 years which is past warranty.
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Point well taken. I was using the context that the in-tank fuel pump in my car is replaceable, but not everyone has the tools so I would probably hire someone to do it who has the tools and skill.
Re:batteries (Score:5, Informative)
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Re:batteries (Score:4, Insightful)
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History repeats itself (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:History repeats itself (Score:5, Insightful)
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That is why many geeks recommend against buying their proprietary form-factor upgrade-resistant machines.
Re:History repeats itself (Score:4, Informative)
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Perpetual? Really?
I think you're having a seniors moment. I empathize, I use the wrong walrus in sentences all the time.
Cheers
You should have bought the Apple. (Score:3, Interesting)
My G5 iMac is still running fine and is my media server (bought in late 2004)
My G4 PowerBook is still running fine and is my print server. (bought in early 2002)
My G3 Blueberry iMac is still working but its getting replaced because my friend has no more use for it because it sucks too much power. (bought in 1996)
Though I will admit that my old Mac (a 7200 I seem to remember dimly) died in 2002.
On the other hand b
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As of market close today:
Apple market capitalization $148.48B
Dell market capitalization $39.09B
Maybe Michael Dell should just liquidate the company and give the cash to the shareholders....
I'm sure they predicted it (Score:5, Insightful)
Nothing to see here..... move along.
Eureka! The iPod killer (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:I'm sure they predicted it (Score:5, Insightful)
Apple is pretty good at planning things but they are secretive so you don't know what they are planning. The iPhone was in development for 2 years before they announced it last January. And the only reason they announced it 6 months before they were able to sell it was that Apple had to apply for a FCC license on it.
Over 10 years ago, Apple bought NeXT to save themselves. Some analysts couldn't understand why Apple with it's faltering personal computer product line would buy a Unix computer company whose product line wasn't very successful. Was Apple going to start selling 2 product lines? What few understood was Apple bought NeXT for their OS expertise not their hardware business. That expertise became OS X.
Just yesterday, Apple bought PA Semi. This slump might be something that planned for a long time and PA Semi is just the start. We don't know what Apple has in store for PA Semi if NeXT is a good example.
What about an 80-column card? (Score:5, Funny)
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I'd pass on that, as it doesn't really benefit my favorite SubLogic program.
TV-typewriter cookbook (Score:2)
By the way, please advise, Should I get the new fangled double-buffered version or try to write to memory during the re-trace?
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this had the side effect of hitting every (lower byte) address every 60th of a second. That in turn solved the great problem of how to refresh dynamic memory without wait states for the cpu. This allowed the apple to avoid using static ram.
this in turn let them have a sm
Re:What about an 80-column card? (Score:5, Funny)
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I didn't get it, because I'm too old [uiowa.edu].
And it turns out I can produce 80-column cards on my Apple computer [x3270.bgp.nu].
Re:What about an 80-column card? (Score:5, Funny)
iPod choices are going downhill (Score:2)
Yeah the iPod touch is cool, but 32GB is woefully inadequate.
The 160GB iPod Classic might be nice, but then I read comments that they have Cirrus Logic (*shudder*) sound chips instead of Yamahas. No thanks.
I've never used iTunes. Amazon.com sells MP3s with no DRM for the same or lower price than iTunes.
iPod still has the name recognition and is much sought after, but there are better alternatives, I'm looking at an Archos WiFi
Re:iPod choices are going downhill (Score:4, Informative)
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If I want to carry around my entire music collection then I need at least 100GB. Otherwise I fuss around deleting music to make room for other music, what's the point in that?
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Do you have music on your computer? Are you listening to it 24/7? If not, delete whatever you're not listening to.
Maybe I can help here (Score:2)
He's not alone.
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Re:iPod choices are going downhill (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:iPod choices are going downhill (Score:5, Funny)
I live in NYC, you insensitive clod.
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That said, I still use a G1 10GB (actually a 5GB with a bigger hard drive). I'm on battery #3
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No, but I routinely listen to music when I am not at home and often feel like changing what I'm listening to. So why wouldn't I want to have my entire music collection readily available so that I can have music that suits my mood?
I don't know about you, but I am unable to predict with 100% accuracy what I will fee
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Is this the iPod slump from three years ago? (Score:5, Interesting)
Or is this the one which was supposed to hit two years ago? Or the one from last year? You see, I get them confused, as it seems every year someone is predicting that Apple's iPod growth will suddenly crater as Teh Next Big Thing comes along and steals Apple's thunder.
I don't know if iPod growth will crater, or slowly slow down or whatever. But I am pretty well convinced that, whatever happens, no "expert" will predict it.
Re:Is this the iPod slump from three years ago? (Score:5, Funny)
No, no, you're getting that confused with the Year of the Linux Desktop(TM) again. Keep it straight, man!
Re:Is this the iPod slump from three years ago? (Score:5, Funny)
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But hereâ(TM)s the thing: iPod revenue growth continues to grow at about the same pace. Last year, iPod revenue was up 18 percent over the previous year; this year, it was up 17 percent. Think about that: a year ago, iPod unit sales were up 50 percent but revenue was up just 18 percent; this year, unit sales are up just 5 percent but revenue is still up 17 percent. (Compare and contrast to Appleâ(TM)s Mac hardware sales, which are up 44 percent in units and an almost identical 47 percent in revenue.)
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Mac Sales Affected by Vista? (Score:5, Insightful)
That would suggest that Dell and HP's consumer PC business will show unit and dollar sales declines.
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Move to new markets (Score:2, Insightful)
Mac Sales (Score:5, Funny)
Sounds like Vista is paying dividends for somebody.
Re:Mac Sales (Score:4, Interesting)
According to the chart, Vista's share increased from 3.75% a year ago to 14% today. The chart also shows that XP's share decreased from 82% to 73.6%. Vista has been cannibalizing XP's share, but Vista+XP today has a 1.6 percentage points greater share today than a year ago (86% in March 2007 to 87.6% in March 2008).
The chart shows that Mac share went from 6.5% a year ago to 7.5% today, which is a significant increase. But note that the chart separates PPC Macs ("Mac OS") from Intel Macs ("MacIntel"), and here you can see that MacIntel's share has increased from 2.5% to 4.5% while PPC Mac OS decreased from 4% down to 3%. That is, most Mac sales are due to people upgrading from Mac PPC to Mac Intel in the same way that most Vista sales are at the expense of XP's share.
So XP+Vista increased by 1.6 percentage points from a year ago, while PPC Mac + Intel Mac increased by 2% from a year ago. Not much difference, and with Vista well ahead of the combined Mac total (14% vs 7%) it's difficult to argue that Vista caused mass defections to the Mac.
However it CAN be argued when you look at the Windows 2000 stats. Windows 2000 went from 4.3% to 2.3% during that same time period. It appears that of that loss of 2 percentage points, 1.7 went to Vista and the other 0.3 went to MacIntel. I think that Mac also gained from the decrease in "Other", which decreased from 2.5% to 1.9%.
Something to look forward to in 2010 (Score:3, Insightful)
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I'm predicting the final tally in 2012 will be a higher total number of users for all operating systems but statistically will be split like this for primary OS.
Microsoft 40 percent
Apple 40 percent
Linux gaining traction at 20 perce
Re:Something to look forward to in 2010 (Score:5, Insightful)
If you take businesses out of the count and look at a consumer level, then your numbers seems more feasible to me. You just have to walk into a college lecture hall and count the Apple logos to see the inroads that they're making.
Macintosh (Score:3, Insightful)
Back on topic, Apple has been smart to diversify a little, but even the article mentions that the new features of iPods (eg, Touch) are meant to appeal to existing iPod owners, meaning they want existing customers to buy even more iPods. It also worked with the iPhone and the Shuffle, where fashion-conscious current iPod owners went out and bought "the next thing," but is this strategy really sustainable? How much longer can Apple really keep selling to the same hardcore user group before enough of them say "I have enough trendy mp3 players."
I don't really consider marginal improvements and marginal innovations that appeal to the same core group to be really sustainable over the long term. What they need to do is find the next "trendy gadget" line. That isn't mp3 players. Until they find out what the next "big thing" is and trend-itize that, their investment in other revenue streams (at least the ones that are still dependent upon popularity growth in mp3, like iTunes) is still susceptible to market growth deceleration. Bravo for making your computers popular again with all that iPod money though.
Re:Macintosh (Score:4, Insightful)
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Arguably, Apple has already found the next big thing. Its the networked, touch-based PDA, also known as the iPhone/iPod Touch. While the iPhone is encumbered by its contract with AT&T, the iPod Touch has no such encumbrances and still manages to include all the PDA features.
iPod sales will never go down... (Score:2, Insightful)
It used to work for cars until this company called Toyota came along and ruined everything. Maybe I'm just cynical.
American car bashing ... Re:iPod sales will never (Score:3, Insightful)
It used to work for cars until this company called Toyota came along and ruined everything.
OK, take off your tinfoil hat for a moment and consider the state of manufacturing in the US circa approximately 1970. There were several things working against the US auto manufacturers at the time that were irrelevant (or even favorable) to the imports:
So while it is very popular to bash on American car companies, I say that at least some of this is unfounded. People really need to take in th
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What do I care, I have karma to burn.
iPod = iPod Touch (Score:3, Insightful)
So long as Apple continues to upgrade the product line like this, they'll do fine. Offer more, better, and fancier, and people will upgrade. In my opinion.
iPod Touch = laptop substitute (Score:2)
Then they released the iPod Touch (iPhone not available (officially) north of the border, or this would be a comment about the iPhone...). It's basically the same thing with some fancy bells and whistles added on. Really fancy bells and whistles. Really, really fancy. No. I mean REALLY fancy.
Fancy enough that I convinced my semi-retired dad that if all he needed to do was travel lightly and surf the web and do email, take short notes, reference maps and view documents and photos, he didn't need a laptop. He got an iPod touch instead, and is more than pleased. It's better than a laptop, because he's more likely to have it when he needs it. Much better than the blackberry option too, once you get used to the keyboard.
Apple in driver's seat, rest can't keep up (Score:5, Interesting)
Apple is driving the market and has been doing so since introducing the iMac. Apple invests in technology years in advance while the Dells and HPs are running their businesses on a quarterly basis.
The punditry will be surprised when they finally notice Apple's growth in the enterprise, at 2-3 times the industry rate. Anyone who's paying attention will realize that the features and capabilities that will make Apple unstoppable in the enterprise in a few years are being designed into Apple products today.
Similar things can be said for Apple TV's prospects for becoming a more ubiquitous consumer appliance - but don't be surprised if even Apple TV shows up in the enterprise, as a device to stream corporate training podcasts hosted on a MacOS X Server.
Apple introduces useful new capabilities that provide compelling reasons to buy new Apple products. What compelling reason is there to upgrade Windows PCs, other than for the sake of upgrading?
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Apple is driving the market and has been doing so since introducing the iMac. Apple invests in technology years in advance while the Dells and HPs are running their businesses on a quarterly basis.
Different target markets. Unless Apple is going to compete with razor thin margins against Dell/HP/Lenovo, they're really making no in-roads.
You're correct that Apple is making impressive inroads in the consumer market, but they're still by far the minority shareholder.
Apple now has two highly successful platforms (Score:5, Informative)
Solution: Apple lowered the price (Score:2, Insightful)
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People like style and quality. Apple packed both with their music player.
Then they dominated the market. No real surprise there.
Apple prices have lowered, and the shuffle is a great device for what it does.
No I am not a fanboy of Apple, but these device are really good.
Why I bought something else (Score:5, Interesting)
I went to a very nice mac store, 3 times. The first time I asked one of the sales people a question I knew the answer to. I could see in her face she didn't know the answer. Instead of telling me that she gave me wrong information that could have cost me money. The 3rd time I went back I spent a lot of time playing on one of their systems to get a feel for it. I liked it very much. I didn't like the idea of having to relearn everything to migrate and I thought Ubuntu is very nice. Then a young clerk with a snotty attitude asked me to get off the chair I was using to check out the computer. I guess I wasn't as important as the class they were holding in the store. I figure if I was going to deal with snotty 20 somethings I should do it with the linux community and save myself a grand.
Then I wanted an MP3 player.
I was seriously considering an iPod.
Then I found out I could not use iTunes on Ubuntu without an emulator. Then I read a few "fuck you" articles from the mac high priesthood addressed to linux people who used iPods. then I read articles about how the iPod would get changes making more work necessary to get it going with linux.
I went on the ubuntuforums got some recommendations for linux friendly mp3 players. Then I bought a used one for $50 that does everything the iPod would have done for me and more.
Re:Why I bought something else (Score:5, Funny)
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Too much focus on individual products. (Score:5, Insightful)
Honestly, I think this is a problem with American companies and media. All they seem to care about is that one hit. They're desperate to come up with the one product that will ensure success, at least temporarily. Because then all too often they seem content to rest on their laurels or worse go to extreme lengths to prevent competition.
So what do we constantly hear from the media, nonsense about this-killer and that-killer, how a particular product is going to change everything and there apparently is little patience for methodical, evolving improvements.
The iPod didn't just fall out of Apple's collective ass. It really was the embodiment of Apple's design philosophy and corporate vision. It also helped that Apple actually had the resources to design the device, develop the software and actually have a direct hand in it's manufacture.
Contrast that with other companies who claim they want to develop something to compete with the iPod. In many cases, like Microsoft, they take an existing product, a Toshiba MP3 player, and customize it for their use. For that reason alone it will never be as well integrated as the iPod.
In many other cases companies will take existing products, particularly Chinese-made products, rebrand them, maybe modify the external design slightly, and resell them here. So the American consumer gets stuck with a subpar product. In the short-term the company earns some easy money but in the long-term they've hurt their brand.
There are many other issues here, but this is one of the bigger problems I see afflicting American companies. Many American companies don't actually make anything anymore. They've effectively dumping the engineering and manufacturing core of the business and have focused almost completely on marketing. Innovation seems to only exist within marketing departments. They're constantly hunting for new advertising gimmick to sucker people into buying more of the same.
Instead of taking the approach of focusing on quality at a premium they're still trying to compete on price. Then they wonder why they lose to the, usually foreign, competition. And when things go south they always blame everyone and everything but their own decision-making. Granted, I'm over-simplifying a bit, but I do think it's a big problem nonetheless.
Re:cant wait for those 64gb iPod Touch's... (Score:5, Funny)
Yup, your Gf is unlikely to complain if I buy one also
Re:cant wait for those 64gb iPod Touch's... (Score:4, Insightful)
Overall I think it works for them just fine, since they time things well and their products are always a good value. But part of me wonders if they wouldn't make more money if they would just wait a little longer before bringing out new generations/products.
Re:cant wait for those 64gb iPod Touch's... (Score:5, Insightful)
Microsoft's second generation Zune, had it arrived a year earlier, would have been competitive hardware wise with the then current iPods. As it was, Apple's rapid upgrading left it looking like nothing special.
The old Apple of the late 80s basically stopped the frantic pace of upgrades, and that's exactly what allowed Microsoft to catch up over a ten year period from 1985-1995. The bumper sticker that said "Windows 95 = Mac 89" was funny, but the sad part was that Mac 89 wasn't so far behind Mac 95.
Now the tables are turned, and Microsoft is the one coasting along on past performance, allowing Apple to catch up and surpass it.
Windows Vista, 7, and Singularity: The New Copland, Gershwin, Taligent [roughlydrafted.com]
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Re:cant wait for those 64gb iPod Touch's... (Score:5, Informative)
(FD: I bought a 16 gig, but gave it to my wife so I had an excuse to buy a 32gig - it's enough for the essentials. I'll have to find someone else that needs a gift when the 64gig comes out)
Re:Here's one way they can prepare (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Here's one way they can prepare (Score:5, Insightful)
While I don't own a Mac Book Pro, and I haven't looked at its specs
when I first saw those commercials, I immediately though Wow!!! I remember ads for laptops and luggables in the late 80's/early 90's -- they didn't fit in no inter-office envelope.
I know someone a few years ago who bought himself an Apple laptop, because he was frustrated with his Windows laptop work provided. He seemed to think it was well worth the money, as it just worked.
I honestly can't say if it's a lot of hype and hot air or not
I guess it's all a matter of what you want and need.
Cheers
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With the Macbook/Pro, Apple effectively closed the gap between its 'Pro' and 'Consumer' grade laptop products, and immediately faced a barrage of criticism for not offering a "Pro" 12/13" laptop.
The iBook was a fairly significant step down from the PowerBook. The MacBook is a fairly small step down from the MacBook Pro. Even back during the PowerBook days, the 12" model was often speced lower than the larger models.
That all said, I still use a 12" PowerBook as my main machine, and do w
Re:Apple will continue to sell Ipods... (Score:5, Funny)
entirely.
What's really funny about this is that you seem to have it totally backwards. Your attitude puts you smack dab in the middle of the Mac stereotype.
Check out stuffwhitepeoplelike sometime. The Mac user is supposed to be a yuppie elitist who likes to brag about not owning a TV, drives a Hybrid, shops at flea markets, participates in athletic activities for fun (jogging, cycling, etc), listens to electronic music, and generally disdains middle america. In other words, you.
I'm a Mac user, but I guess it all makes sense because I'm a Bay Area elitist who drives a BMW and commuted 60 miles to work by bicycle today.
My only failing is that I refuse to apologize for the fact that I watch TV when I have nothing better to do.