Math on iPhones Just Doesn't Add Up? 289
Tech Dirt is reporting that recently announced numbers by Apple and AT&T suggest that there is a large gap (1.7 million) between the number of iPhones being sold and those being activated. Taking into account factors like the iPhone launching outside the US and a 20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for. "[...] suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory."
i know! (Score:5, Funny)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg1ckCkm8YI [youtube.com]
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Perhaps some poeple who bought 2 Baught one to use and kept one in its origional package as a collectors item... Like some colectors do with Comics, or with some toys.
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She's an ACTION FIGURE, you bastard!
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Yet.
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(did I just say that?)
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Another possible factor is that the numbers used may be an AT&T report of new customers, excluding people who were already using AT&T cell service before getting an iPhone.
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Re:i know! (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:i know! (Score:5, Funny)
You know, I have no love for Apple (I actually hate the company), but I did buy an iPhone, because it has the best browser and best map application (I wanted a browser with a phone, not a phone with a browser).
That said, I have to say one thing. The iPhone came in the nicest box and packaging I've ever seen. It's almost decadent, how thick the cardboard is and how nicely constructed it is. The iPhone comes cradled in this thick, thick, clear plastic holder. The manual came in an elegant black envelope. You have to see the thing to believe it.
I seriously can't bring myself to throw it away. It's utterly useless at this point, but it's so nice, it feels like I'm being wasteful by putting in the trash.
It actually gives me another reason to hate Apple. There is absolutely no reason that this box is necessary, and it really is a waste of resources. I think they used an entire tree to produce the box.
Re:i know! (Score:5, Insightful)
Style, man. STYLE
You may hate Apple for doing the box that way, but to ME, it shows a company going all out to make something the best they can possibly make it the moment the end user comes into contact with the product.
Fine wine doesn't come in a plastic jug, does it? So, for Apple, a fine electronic device such as the iPhone should come in a nice box, too. Macs are expensive yet aren't the fastest computers out there, despite the hype. But you couldn't get a mac user to switch to a PC just because it was cheaper or faster. Why? I think it's the experience. Any Mac-o-philes care to chime in?
No, I don't have an iphone, I don't own a mac, and I'm not a mac fanboy, either.
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The most important reason for many people buying - and loving - Macs is Mac OS X, which indeed is the experience. But it doesn't stop there, a great design case helps too. You won't find any ports on the back of any Mac laptop (so annoying on Dells I have worked with) and y
Re:i know! (Score:5, Insightful)
Regardless, I've worked with Italian equipment, and Italians. They are good engineers and take great pride in workmanship. They also are very much into aesthetics and style. Very much. But, the Italian culture is way way different than that of the USA. To make a hasty generality, American engineers always always always focus on function above form. The Italians are so relaxed and laid back, they put things off or get things just good enough and let it go. As long as it just works, and as long as it looks good, it's fine. That's why they only crack down on the mafia when they become embarrassing. Out of sight, out of mind.
Here's an example. The PLC on a piece of equipment in Europe probably is going to be Siemens. In the USA, the PLC will be Allen Bradley, more likely than not. Well, if we would sell a piece of Italian equipment in the US, we would sell it with AB. They didn't want to completely rewrite the fairly extensive PLC program, so they employed a translation program that converted it from Siemens to AB. Polish it up a bit, and it works. But anyone with a clue who looks at it finds it to be spaghettied up and a clumsy mess. Whether it was spaghettied up and clumsy before, I don't know for sure, but
Now, don't get me wrong, the machines were very refined, worked very smoothly, had a lot of ingenious and elegant features, and look quite stylish. And had some not-insignificant shortcomings that you overlook because
Now I've figured it out - Steve Jobs is Italian!
Hey, get ahold of and watch the first episode of season 10 of Top Gear. When Clarkson is driving the Lambo and can't get the gas cap open - That sums it up.
Re:i know! (Score:4, Funny)
Believe this man! Mod him up! Buy him a beverage of choice when you meet him!
All joking aside, I ride Italian motorcycles, and by God isn't this post on the money. The engine, the frame and the suspension are a wonderful unit, the cycle rides like a dream, the styling is great. Yet, stupid little design flaws keep cropping up, like the headlight fittings not being designed to hold up under heavy use (my headlight is now fixed to the frame with tie-wrap).
That's Italian design for you: it does what it's supposed to do, so we it out of the factory. Never mind the details, they're not important to the main purpose of the product. So we get cars that look great, drive great, and have body panels that fit badly; the creaking of the body of some Alfa Romeos can really get on your nerves. Or motorcycles where someone thought it was a good idea to run the cables to the rear light right through the middle underside of the rear fender (my previous bike).
And yet...there is something in Italian engineering that captivates us fans, and makes us put up with their lackadaisical attitude to details. Damned if I know what it is, but it's there.
MartOr Bricked (Score:5, Funny)
Tomorrow, I'm getting my sixth truckload. The North Wing is almost complete, and then I'll start working on the guest house.
* (just kidding, of course. I'm a working techie stiff just like everyone else here)
Solomon
Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluster (Score:2)
Just kidding, but there was a story years ago about Iraq buying Playstation machines (and prior to that a story about the purchase of C64s) to use. The iPhone is the cool new thing.
As a more serious one, perhaps a lot are being shipped overseas and unlocked for use there?
Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:5, Funny)
Totally. Kim Jong Il got one, and now Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Osama Bin Laden are really jealous, to the point that it's threatening to completely disrupt the Axis of Evil. It doesn't help that Osama got a brown Zune for Christmas and now Kim Jong Il and Ahmadinejad are teasing him mercilessly about it.
Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:4, Funny)
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- RG>
Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:3, Insightful)
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Of COURSE! Santa is stockpiling so that he doesn't run into the same situation next Christmas with the iPhone that he had this year with the Wii!
Re:Terrorists buying them to make a Beowulf Cluste (Score:2)
Ummmm (Score:5, Insightful)
Does the number of ATT activations also include the pre-paid plans, or just the contracts?
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And I have this [mac.com] to say to Apple and Jobs.
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When carriers report their subscriber numbers they focus almost exclusively, in the US anyways, on post-paid subscribers.
You get a +1 insightful kudos sir, I hadn't considered this possibility until you mentioned it.
I have an idea.... (Score:2, Insightful)
You are right (Score:5, Interesting)
For example: "20% estimate of people buying the iPhone just for the purposes of unlocking, there are still 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for."
OK, so then I guess maybe the 20% estimate is wrong? Horrors.
What I do know for certain is that this discussion won't solve something that only Apple can answer.
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No worries (Score:3, Funny)
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Awesome.
A million here, a million there, and sooner or... (Score:2, Flamebait)
Re:A million here, a million there, and sooner or. (Score:3, Insightful)
The share they get from ATT is just more profit.
Also, the iPhone is said to have cost 150 million $ in development. Not such a big deal when they sell millions of them with a decent margin.
There is a lot of speculation about this device, isn't there?
Re:A million here, a million there, and sooner or. (Score:2)
Apple isn't subsidizing iPhone hardware.
Enough anti-iPhone FUD to choke on... (Score:4, Informative)
Surely some small percentage of phones are being unlocked, but did you ever stop to think that maybe the numbers are off because AT&T hasn't reported yet how many iPhone subscribers there are for December/January and there were probably tens of thousands of iPhones purchased as Christmas gifts that sat under a tree and just barely got activated in the last couple of weeks?
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Both Sony and Microsoft have a well established, and documented, history of announcing shipped instead of sold numbers!
Last I checked both are listed on the NYSE. Do MSFT and SNE ring any bells for you?
Re:Enough anti-iPhone FUD to choke on... (Score:5, Informative)
You can announce whatever you want, the question is what you recognize as revenue. For that you need to ask an accountant.
I'm not an accountant, but here's the basic principle. The important question is who is the customer and when a sale is made. If you sell a product to another company, such as a distributor or retail store, that's revenue, even if it hasn't been sold to their customer. If you ship a product to your own retail store, that's not revenue until it's sold to a customer.
Then you get complexities like, what happens if the distributor has an agreement where they can require you to buy back unsold product? Does that mean the distributor's inventory should also be treated as your own inventory?
That's why there's a genuinely interesting question about how many iPhones have really been sold to customers, and the truth may not be a simple matter of reading quarterly press releases from Apple and AT&T.
Last I checked both are listed on the NYSE. Do MSFT and SNE ring any bells for you?
Actually, MSFT is listed on Nasdaq, Sony is listed in Tokyo. SNE is a secondary listing (American Depository Receipt).
Martin
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I'm not a CPA though my BS focus was Accountancy (and it's been awhile)... The first thing that came to mind was to treat returns like a warranty account. Companies will come up with a % of sales they believe they will spend on warranty/returns and that will be part of the balance s
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Re:Enough anti-iPhone FUD to choke on... (Score:4, Informative)
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This is business 101. Manufacturers do it because the store is their customer, not the end user. The end user is the customer of the store. The store buys the iPhone from Apple for cost $X. When the customer buys the iPhone from the store, Apple doesn't get that money, the store does. Only if the store has managed some sort of consignment arrangement (Walmart is reported to force these on weaker companies) does the manufacturer not get paid on delivery (actual terms very, but gene
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Re:Enough anti-iPhone FUD to choke on... (Score:5, Insightful)
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Correct.
Apple can't stuff their own channel because that wouldn't count as a sale.
Unless the Apple Store is a separate corporate entity, which I'm pretty sure it is. Then that would count as a sale.
And do you think AT&T is stupid enough to take inventory of 700,000 phones at once? That would be bat-shit insane.
Then again, given the iPhone's perceived demand (spell that "hype"), Apple is in a position to prett
Re:Enough anti-iPhone FUD to choke on... (Score:5, Funny)
Having been on the phone with AT&T for the last four hours, yes, yes I do.
Some synonyms for "channel stuffing" (Score:2)
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then it depends on the corporate relationship between Apple stores and Apple itself
Apple Stores are directly managed by Apple in their jurisdiction. (i.e. Apple Stores in California managed by Apple, Inc., Apple Stores in Canada managed by Apple Canada Inc.)
All Apple Store employees work for Apple, Inc., not some "third party" subsidiary that was created to handle its retail presence.
I think it's pretty safe to say that Apple can't count Apple Store inventory units as "sold".
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Not true. The terms you're looking for are "sold in" vs "sold out". Sometimes "sold out" can be very difficult to know with any precision, because of the time it takes retailers to reorder and variance in their stocking levels. "sold in" (meaning goods went into the channel) is when the revenue is recognized, because the channel _is_ the customer, from the manufacturers perspective.
Of course Apple also has their own retail stores and
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If you knew anything about Wall Street
Reading the other posts in this story, it sounds like the only one who "doesn't know anything about Wall Street" is you. Care to justify your position with some evidence to support it?
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This anti-iPhone FUD is pretty crazy. It makes me wonder how many MS shills and bloggers they have on the payroll:
You don't have to be paid by Microsoft to find annoyance [dailymotion.com] in Apple's hype factory. It's just like you defending Apple even though you're not on their payroll.
As others have pointed out, you're not so right that people would have to be paid to disagree with you.
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Maybe... (Score:3, Funny)
(British joke only, I guess)
AT&T numbers are likely for iphone specific pl (Score:3, Insightful)
Many people will need more minutes than the regular iphone specific plans can deliver or wanted to keep their existing plan and simply add the iphone features to it.
Or AT&T simply doesn't like paying Apple and they are looking for ways to under report the activations of iphones until after the customers window to cancel without penalties expire or something like that.
Click through and find the answer.... (Score:5, Informative)
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2 million new customers or total? (Score:5, Insightful)
If this is the case, it would explain a large amount of that gap.
I think part of the problem here is that the major media would like to report that the iPhone is a dismal failure somehow--and channel stuffing (a'la Microsoft's channel stuffing of the Zune) is one way to paint this picture. However, given the number of units I've seen on the shelves at the various stores I've gone to, I cannot imagine that 30% of Apple's iPhone stock was stuffed into the channel: that would mean that every Apple and AT&T store would have a mountain of iPhones sitting in the corner, and I'm not seeing it.
Only 20% being unlocked? (Score:4, Informative)
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Makes no sense (Score:2)
So pull a different number out of your ass (Score:2, Insightful)
Crazy People. (Score:4, Funny)
2. Horders buy as many as possible and sell them on ebay.
3. Short attention span. They bought one but never decided to use it.
4. Stupid People. They couldn't figure out how to use it.
5. Loose recepts. Broken or didn't like it but never returned it.
6. Like to break things. Will it blend what makes it tick.
7. Uninformed after spending $600 on a phone they realize their home has no Cell reception
8. Competitors buy the phone and study it for its secrets.
9. Compulsive cleaning spouce. New Toy left in the wrong spot got tossed.
10. Enemies a person is jelious that you just got an iPhone... Have it dissapar.
11. Kids... Shiny... Small... Toilet... Nuff said.
12. Gifts that were never open.
I bet more too.
Look under the there... (Score:2, Funny)
Apple's business model... (Score:2)
1351 iPhones on eBay right now (Score:2)
There are 1351 iPhones on eBay [ebay.com] right now. Most of them are unlocked. Some of the sellers have hundreds of iPhones. [ebay.com] So a sizable chunk of that unsold inventory is over on eBay.
It's like the early days of the PS3, when eBay sellers overbought and there was soon a glut of the things on eBay for months, selling below retail.
Some are just sleeping. (Score:2, Interesting)
iPhones are hidden (Score:2)
(subtle...)
How Many Bytes in an Apple? (Score:2)
alternativly (Score:2)
really, how hard is it to find out how many sold?
random anecdote (Score:2)
Boston might not be representative, but given that it's a pretty pricey thing, I'm impressed with its marketing inroads already. (I'm also impressed with how much new functionality the upgrades have been adding)
One paragraph constitutes news? (Score:2)
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Course some of us can settle for having just one billion $$$ instead of dozens.
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iPhone service starts at $60 (Score:5, Informative)
Service plans for the iPhone start at $59.99/mo, which is $39.99 for the voice line and $20 for data. I added another iPhone for my wife for another $20 (data plan).
Don't forget the fees (Score:4, Informative)
Still pretty dang expensive for me, even at the lowest rate. I'll sign on when I can get an iPhone for $200 and then pay $40/mo. I take after my dad who should have founded cheapbastard.com.
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Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:The recession and Apple (Score:5, Insightful)
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Does that sound like an Apple-sponsored ad for their product to you?
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The only problem with this tac
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I wouldn't be surprised if this is typical late 90s shenanigans on the part of apple. I know a lot of software companies did this back in the 90s - they print up a jillion boxes of software and ship it to the stores, counting it as sales. This works in the short term, but when the stuff shows up on wooden palettes at the Qwiky Mart all marked down 50%, it travels back up the chain pretty quick, and affects share price. so, i would propose a tag to this article, stuffthechannel.
Apple just released their number of iPhones sold in the last quarter. There are accounting rules for this: An iPhone counts as sold at the time when it is either paid for, or when the person receiving it has an obligation to pay and can't get around it (without being bankrupt). And since Enron, the SEC checks these things quite carefully.
So now we have two choices: Either Apple has done things that will get them into deep trouble, and most likely someone into jail. Or, as unlikely as it may sound, there
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Maybe the real story here is the way Apple's stock has tanked in the face of strong profits.
We can rest assured that there was no insider trading, because people are basically good and wouldn't break the rules and stuff.
http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/2008/01/stock-is-getting-killed-ive-instructed.html [blogspot.com]
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