Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone 412
narramissic writes "A survey by online market research firm Compete Inc. finds that of the 26% of those who said they're likely to buy an iPhone, only 1% said they'd pay $500 for it, while 42% said they'd likely buy the phone for $200 to $299. Sixty percent of likely iPhone buyers would be willing to make the switch to AT&T wireless to get it."
Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)
The iPhone looks terrible to me for a variety of reasons -- locked application support, AT&T (love my T-Mobile), restrictive networking (GPRS and not EDGE/3G?), etc. But the iPhone will probably win in version 2 because of what has made Apple a powerhouse -- it's the interface, stupid. My iPod is really a great device (even though I don't use it since I have EDGE-radio streamed from my home media PC). I loved the iPod for the interface. I'm glad my wife, sister, father, mother and brother all have iPods -- I have to do absolutely NO work to keep them happy.
My #1 complaint about ALL PDAs and ALL phones has always been the interface. It seems that techies designed a horrid interface around features, rather than integrating everything into a smooth GUI. Apple's interface alone will sell millions, and people will pay the price.
One thing that people seem to forget time and again is that you can not judge tomorrow's prices on yesterday's prices. Inflation [unanimocracy.com] has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar. I think $500 is a reasonable price for all of what the iPhone offers -- even though it is merely version 1.0. By the time the iPhone is actually released, who knows how much inflation has caused wages to "rise" and incomes to "soar." With the Democrats taking over, I don't doubt that inflation will get worse than even the high-spending Republicans forced the issue.
Don't look at prices as a constant. In terms of US dollars, we're almost all wealthier in the number of dollars we earn -- even though we are poorer in terms of what those dollars can buy us.
Sidenote: Apple is also wise to set this price point. It is just pricey-enough-sounding to make the device a little more elitist than the $49 Razr that every 12 year old seems to have. Getting the superstars and Paris-Hilton-models using their phone will make everyone want one, and as sales go up, prices tend to go down. Apple's biggest problem in the short run will be supply -- I guarantee they won't have enough to keep up with demand, even at $500.
I paid $650 for my HTC Trinity P3600, and if Apple can integrate a GPS and EDGE/3G, I'd pay $1000 for it just on the interface alone. Give it a few weeks after release, and I think people's opinions of the device will change. They'll see what it can do for them (especially business folks, teenagers with money, and young adults with new credit cards), and they'll jump at the chance to have one early for $500.
Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)
There are a few things that I don't like about the device that are the reasons why I will not be purchasing one:
1. It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T. This may be a great idea for Apple and Cingular/AT&T but it's terrible for everyone that has to switch to them to use this device.
2. There is no tactile QWERTY keyboard as part of the device. dada, as a previous Hiptop user and now with the P3600, you have to know how great a real keyboard is compared to a touchscreen based one. I could NOT get along by tapping the screen -- it's just not the same and touch typing would become extremely difficult.
3. The price is ASTRONOMICAL especially if you're getting new service and paying out the ass to drop your current contract with a better wireless company to switch. The research is right as $299 is more reasonable than $500+ even with disposable income and the desire for a great wireless device, it's not worth that much to me when I'm locked in to one vendor for at least two years.
Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Ditto and ditto.
When my contract is up I will be shopping around. ATT Wireless was one of the worst cellular providers out there, bar none - and I was stuck with their terrible service "over the hill" in Santa Cruz until I complained loud and long enough that the
Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)
This is what Apple always does. This is how the market works. They invent something, sell it at a high price in order to pay for development and pick up the part of the market willing to pay that price, and lower the price later. You'll get your $300 iPhone soon enough.
No, you won't see an iPhone for $300. (Score:5, Interesting)
All signs indicate Apple's trying to position the iPhone a step-up from the iPod, not a replacement. I really doubt it will ever drop below the price of the most expensive iPod, even with a contract.
Re:No, you won't see an iPhone for $300. (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:No, you won't see an iPhone for $300. (Score:4, Insightful)
Yeah but iPod prices are way lower now (Score:3, Insightful)
I think it's very possible we'll see a $300 iPhone in a few years. Either the best iPod will cost well under $300, or the iPhone WILL be the best iPod--in much the same way the Treo is the top-of-the-line Palm PDA these days.
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Apple invented an awesome new feature! (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)
1. It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T. This may be a great idea for Apple and Cingular/AT&T but it's terrible for everyone that has to switch to them to use this device.
You say tomato, I say tomat... well, you get the point. Everybody has their own opinion, experiences, and whatnot with cell phone providers. In short, they all suck. I believe that Verizon and Sprint are the worst out there. Locking everyone in to their phones and only allowing data transfers (pictures, ringtones and such) through their proprietary services. GSM has always been about embracing more open standards. I can buy most any "unlocked" phone from eBay and use it by simply swapping SIMs. This alone makes a GSM provider miles better than a CDMA provider.
2. There is no tactile QWERTY keyboard as part of the device. dada, as a previous Hiptop user and now with the P3600, you have to know how great a real keyboard is compared to a touchscreen based one. I could NOT get along by tapping the screen -- it's just not the same and touch typing would become extremely difficult.
I'm the exact opposite. I -hate- those tiny key keyboards that feel like you're going to split your fingernails on trying to type on them. They're mostly worthless since they take up most of the phone (which would be large even without them). I'll pass on that.
3. The price is ASTRONOMICAL especially if you're getting new service and paying out the ass to drop your current contract with a better wireless company to switch. The research is right as $299 is more reasonable than $500+ even with disposable income and the desire for a great wireless device, it's not worth that much to me when I'm locked in to one vendor for at least two years.
I've paid more than that for a phone more than once. You can't tell me that $200 is a large barrier if you're serious about considering the phone to begin with. Sure, cheaper is better and knowing Apple it will get cheaper in the future. I think it's perfectly reasonable and smart to control demand by setting the initial price high and make money off of people that are dying to get the device (regardless of reason, being trendy or simply because it's actually useful). I have no problem paying that for a device like this because I've paid it before for devices that weren't even 20% as good.
Of course, all this remains to be seen. The iPhone could very well suck due to restrictive application policies and physical product glitches. I reserve judgement on that until I get my hands on one though.
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You've never used it the correct way and you've obviously never used one that was really designed well. It's difficult to split your fingernails when you're typing w/the flat side of your thumb. I can type almost as fast (using some quick software s
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What is wrong with Cingular? I've always been with Sprint...been happy with them, but, I've been asking friends that have Cingular, and they've been quite happy with it. So far, most all I've asked only use it for voice...I use my Sprint phone as a modem for occasional laptop usage...or
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You have to remember that wireless provider suckitude varies by locale. There are some places where Cingular either doesn't suck, or at least sucks significantly less than the alternatives. There are also many places where there are no alternatives.
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Seriously I had AT&T, they were bad with random charges, then cingular took them over and they had tons more random charges, they were worse, then I tried to quit... there was a 3 month battle over this, and then 3 more monthes of bills before it was finally over. Overall this is not an is
Inflation depends on how you measure it (Score:5, Informative)
If you consider inflation to be the value of precious metals such as gold, then sure, you can get to absurd values such as 50% (mind you, there's no such thing as absolute reference value). OTOH, if you consider consumer price indexes, it's much lower - between 5 and 10%.
Re:Inflation depends on how you measure it (Score:4, Interesting)
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Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Informative)
It -is- an EDGE device. EDGE (2.75G) is pretty terrible though compared to real 3G (UMTS/HSDPA) service that Cingular offers. It's definitely in there for revision B but as Apple has stated they don't feel a need to implement it right now since most of the US isn't covered in UMTS/HSDPA service. That will change in the next 12-18 months when you can expect to see iPhone rev. B. T-Mobile is very lagged on their 3G deployment behind Cingular so your HTC is slow as balls anyway compared to Verizon's EVDO (which has very good coverage now) and Cingular's HSDPA (which is still in early deployment stages).
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This doesn't make any sense. New, comparable items being (in your opinion) reasonably priced at "double of what we paid 5 years ago" is ridiculous. Your reasoning is fl
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You're missing something here. (Score:2)
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The iPhone runs Web applications right out of the box. You go to images.google.com or whatever other URL and its browser has all the specs to run Web 2.0 same as Firefox. There is a lot of stuff that you pay for on other phones that you won't have to either buy or install on the iPhone because you'll just use the Web version.
Slashdot is in the iPhone already, for example, because iPhone has a full-scale modern Web browser. What
Your personal attack is way off-base (Score:5, Insightful)
David
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Re:Your personal attack is way off-base (Score:5, Insightful)
David
Put your UID penis away. (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Put your UID penis away. (Score:5, Funny)
You must be new here.
Come to my website! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Your personal attack is way off-base (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes, a focused and intense education helps quite a bit when you're trying to become an expert in a field. No, you don't necessarily need to have a Ph.D. in every field of endeavor to understand the basics of it.
Sometimes the "experts" are dead wrong themselves, too. Freud arguably never cured a patient, and his best friend is said to have died of a cocaine addiction and overdose from Freud's prescription of it. Dr. Benjamin Spock, the famed parenting doctor, had a son commit suicide. Heisenberg thought it would takes tons of uranium to make a nuclear fission bomb as opposed to the kilograms Frisch and Peierl found it would take. Charles Goodyear died broke trying to sell rain slickers, furniture, and everything else made out of his vulcanized rubber.
Other world-famous people worked in fields different from their field of study -- sometimes very different. Sam Walton was an economics major, not business. Bill Gates dropped out of a pre-law program (but it was at Harvard), and was actually making $20,000 a year at the age of 14. Paul Revere was a silversmith, Ben Franklin a publisher, and George Washington a farmer. Betty Williams won a Nobel prize and was an office receptionist. Harry S Truman -- the man who desegregated the U.S. armed forces, helped get Israel acknowledged by the U.N., approved the Berlin Air Lift, and signed the National Security Act -- never completed his degree. H. Ross Perot, founder of EDS and Perot Systems, founder of a somewhat successful political party, and venture capitalist, graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy.
So please, stop implying people are uninformed morons if they don't meet your standards for education in a particular field. This is Slashdot, and people are voicing their opinions, concerns, and points of view. They are not applying for jobs or trying to get you to publish their books. Please start judging comments by what is said in them and not by how you've prejudged the poster.
Only 1% will buy it at the $599 pricemark (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Only 1% will buy it at the $599 pricemark (Score:5, Insightful)
You joke but it is actually a pretty similar problem.
Most people are used to spending $0-$200 for a phone on contract and buy it because of how it is styled and its color; most of the features of the phone are not important because it is "Just a Phone." To most people spending $500 on a phone seems insane because they realize that they have no use for most of the features.
Now there is an important difference between an iPhone and a PS3
If Sony only sold 5,000,000 PS3 systems in its first year third party developers would abandon their projects and the PS3 would die; if Apple sells 500,000 iPones in its first year they can continue to sell them the following year without any lost value for the system (and the iPhone will eventually become an affordable product).
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MS only sold ~5 mil in it's first 4 quarters of the 360's lifespan. I didn't see the mass exodus of third paties, did you? In Q4 2006 (fifth quarter of its' lifespan) they almost do
I hear... (Score:5, Funny)
I hear it's also got less space than a Nomad. Lame.
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Well then? (Score:2, Redundant)
*Runs away*
Re:Well then? (Score:4, Informative)
Yeah, you'd better run!
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Re:Well then? (Score:5, Interesting)
surveys (Score:2, Insightful)
Not that I disagree with the assessment that nobody wants a $500 phone, but does anyone else really doubt how accurate these online marketing surveys are? To qualify (and get paid) you usually have to answer a question like the following one from a survey to gather information about enterprise class printers:
How many people work in your company worldwide?
Well, you know that if you don't answer with the last one, you don't get to participate or get paid. You know
Re:surveys (Score:4, Funny)
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Hmm (Score:2, Insightful)
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I will likely buy it because, on the surface at least, it has everything I've wanted in a phone since my first cell purchase in 2000. Biggest feature for me is the full size touch screen. I don't care for buttons/keys much. If the WiFi is really open to access any wireless network and doesn't cost me extra to use (you never know) then the only thing left for me is speed.
If it is really as fast and capable as the demos make it look, that'll make it a "yes" on the purchase question.
The cost isn't really
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There will likely always be a $600 model, it'll just steadily improve in capabilities while the abilities of the previous $600 model finds their way into the new cheaper versions.
Although
Skip the phone... (Score:2, Interesting)
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In other news (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:In other news (Score:5, Funny)
Ah, I was waiting for the car analogy folks to show up. Just out of curiosity, why go with the Ferrari in this instance? Our research shows that 77% of people in your position would have gone with a BMW or Mercedes comparison. 20% would have made comparison to a Jaguar, and the remaining 3% would have compared the phone to a Cadillac Escalade.
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Besides... Car analogy's never to work that well with technology anyway.
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Ferrari caters to the uber-wealthy and their products aren't supposed to have high sales volume and mass market appeal. The same cannot be said for Apple.
Well, if we were talking Macs here, he'd actually be right, because that's Apple's exact strategy - high appeal, high margin, low volume. But I think for this phone to be a winner, it needs to have greater market penetration and a lower price point, as they did with the iPod.
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Ferrari caters to the uber-wealthy and their products aren't supposed to have high sales volume and mass market appeal. The same cannot be said for Apple.
Apple is selling a device to the extreme high end of the market, just like Ferrari. If they max out there production for the first two years they will probably manage to make enough for about 0.1% of the cell phone market. That may not be as small a share as the Ferrari, but based upon initial demand it seems like they will be selling them as fast as they can make them on the high end. After a year, the price will come down and they will aim for one step down from the super high end. It makes sense to me.
Wait a sec. . . (Score:5, Interesting)
Sloppy.
phone + computer (Score:2, Informative)
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Re:phone + computer (Score:4, Insightful)
Where they lose me is in the area of applications. Will there be a encrypted notepad? Nothing can really take the place of an encrypted password list on a PDA. My PDA died a while ago and I was hoping to combine the phone and PDA. As it is now, it's a real pain to drag out whatever computer has the most current password list on it (I try to keep a list on my various computers but it's always out of sync). Aside from that, I want a plain old shell with various apps, like the essential SSH. These things may or may not be on Apple's priority list, but they are on someone's. With the OpenMoko, people can make an application and sell or give it away. With Apple's phone, it remains to be seen whether that natural software ecosystem will develop. It certainly sounds like it will not.
people will pay (Score:5, Insightful)
They said the original iPod was expensive, too. But there's are segments of society that won't flinch at $500 for a phone because it's not much money to them. And there are other segments of society that are willing to invest $500 of their hard earned money into something they really like.
The iPhone may be expensive for a "phone" -- but as a pocket computer, it's a pretty cool device. These nay-sayers are the same people shelling out thousands of dollars for HD TVs, and I paid $2000 for my iMac a while ago -- in the grand scheme of things, $500 is not that much money.
iPhone will sell like hot cakes and make Apple a tonne of dough.
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The phone will be locked down and not permit the installation of third-party apps. It's not a pocket computer - that would mean you could expand it. It's a portable information appliance, which means that it behaves like a black box and you are not permitted to open it.
If Apple had allowed unfettered access to the system, and permitted development of third-party apps in xcode, then yes, it would be a fabulous
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Re:people will pay (Score:4, Insightful)
The plan is for 1% (Score:5, Informative)
Undervalued (Score:3, Informative)
Backwards (Score:2, Interesting)
I'd be more interested in what percentage of people who are willing to buy a $500+ phone are planning on getting an iPhone.
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That's utterly useless data, because it doesn't tell you what percentage of people are willing to buy one in the first place. It doesn't help you to know that x/90 people will buy your phone if you don't know the value of x.
"Consumers" (Score:3, Insightful)
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do you not consume anything?
In this context consumer is correct. When on Capital Hill and involves laws that effect the people, then it's Citizen.
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1% of 26% = 0.26%? (Score:3, Insightful)
Also, note that just because the majority of people won't buy a particular product, it does not follow that the product will necessarily fail. What percent of Americans owned iPods when they first came out? It's up to around 10% now, but we're also into the fifth generation and the prices have dropped while capability has increased. Since this is common with technology, I would expect the same from the iPhone.
Reality is US consumers used to contracts (Score:4, Insightful)
In other places you pay the actual price of the phone and your wireless service is $10 to $20 a month.
The same thing will happen with the iPhone - US and Canadian customers will be offered a plan where we basically amortize the cost of the iPhone over 2 or 3 years of wireless service, and end up paying much more than we would if we kept it separate.
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PS. my moto Q was free with a 0$ plan. Sweetness workign for a telecom.
the author is statistically challenged (Score:3, Informative)
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
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That's ok, math wasn't your best suit.
Apple should sell in India (Score:2)
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wouldn't pay for it (Score:2)
I'm getting one (Score:3, Interesting)
Or, rather, my wife is getting one.
Her birthday is in June, and she needs a new iPod and a new cell phone, and we're already with Cingular and are happy with the service. She saw that you can show pictures to people on that wide screen and said "I want to be able to do that." And now that we've got a baby on the way, it will make it a helluva lot easier than having to lug photos around or view it on my iPod's comparatively small screen, or the tiny screen of an iPod Nano. And having her address book and calendar with her would be very convenient.
So it's not for everybody, but for her it can replace having to carry around two larger items that, were I to buy them separately, would cost about the same price.
These comments seem familiar... (Score:2)
$500 + may work without a forced 2 year plan (Score:2)
Most americans aren't willing to pay *anything* (Score:2)
So they'll do the same thing with the iPhone that they do with every other phone. They'll offer 'em at half the price, and charge you an arm and a leg every month for 24 months or more. And most Americans will thank them for it.
That, and employers will buy them for their employees. So yes, only 1% of those surveyed would pay $5
Exactly What Apple Predicted (Score:5, Insightful)
Study: Consumers aren't willing to pay $500 for iPhone [itworld.com] "only 1 percent said they'd pay US$500 for it" - 2/23/2007
Wow. In only six weeks they've managed to estabilish exactly what Apple already said and, in a sensationalist bid, are framing exactly what was predicted as a terrible failure.
As another poster's written: Most people would buy Ferraris for $18,000 but less than 1% will at their current price... and Ferrari is absolutely fine with that.
In exactly the same way, Apple created a flagship brand that's not supposed to be owned by everyone but is supposed to increase brand awareness, move more people to iTunes and sell a hell of a lot of iPods to people who'd like to be able to upgrade "one day." Apple doesn't want the $50, minimal to no profits, tied to carriers for subsidies market. They chose their market, went after it, and all this article does is confirm their estimates were apparently exactly right. Given most companies over-estimate, 0.5% would have been a more realistic expectation based on a 1% prediction. That independent research supports 1% too is the shocking part.
Consider me a 1%er (Score:3, Interesting)
Ridiculous, we don't know what's in the contract (Score:4, Insightful)
OpenMoko will get my $$$ (Score:3, Informative)
This presentation isn't as flashy as Steve Jobs' but is has me way more interested.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRvtAAXTIlg [youtube.com]
Linux Devices has a good writeup.
http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS2986976174.htm
The Company Web Site
http://www.openmoko.com/ [openmoko.com]
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Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
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If you are listening to Enderle or Thurrot, I can see why your head is up your ass.
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Re:I'm getting one (Score:5, Funny)
Jesus Christ! The word is reins. Reign is what a ruler does over something. Reins are what you guide a horse with.
If you don't understand a word, don't use it.
All? Modern macbook is a great mid-level machine. iPod is quite good for a DRM-enabled player. Original Mac was monochrome, but it did graphics while IBM-clones were still just doing text for the most part. iMac was a success by any standard. The iPhone is the only potential boondoggle in your list. If you had talked about Newtons (Priced WAY over what the market would bear) then maybe you would have a point.
Now, I will happily agree that any Mac from the Macintosh II line forward, up until they went to the intel chips, is overpriced and underpowered. The G4 was the fastest thing around for about a second but it always had a horrible price:performance ratio. But your generalizations are inaccurate.
Yes! Give in to the dark side!
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Seriously, I'll pay a lot of money just to not be like you.
My Macbook Pro would disagree with you. (Score:3, Insightful)
Your complaints about Macs used to be valid. I used to have the same complaints. Wake up -- they don't apply anymore.
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Don't get me wrong, OSX is a decent operating system in terms of functionality...however, I cannot fucking STAND the interface, and more than that I couldn't stand the way the laptop felt or looked. I had it for a good 6 months and ended up just selling it.
Forgive me for not falling into the marketing trap. Apple products are complete shit.