The Odds at Macworld 526
Moby Cock writes "Jason O'Grady has posted the odds on what is to be announced at the Macworld Expo beginning next week. Coming in at 100:1 is OS X 10.5 and even money on a new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks. Gentlemen, start your credit cards."
The odds? (Score:4, Funny)
If this guy [zdnet.com] is there, I would say the "odds" are well represented.
Re:The odds? (Score:3, Insightful)
"start you credit cards" (Score:3, Funny)
I predict no 10.5, no Intel machines releases, nothing major. Just a bumped Mini.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
We're definitely getting Intel Macs. (Score:4, Informative)
Nah.... (Score:4, Funny)
Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) (Score:3, Insightful)
Actually the mightymouse only has one button and it looks and works just like the old single button mice. The trick is that depending on which finger you press down on the single button with you get a left or right click functionality and the trackball on top of it doubles as a third button. This is a typical Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) solution:
Fact #1: Official Apple policy is that a user on
Re:Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) (Score:3, Insightful)
To put it bluntly, that's just because your expectation of what sort of innovation a good product should contain is abnormally high. All Dell ever seems to do is make things cheaper. All monitor manufacturers seem to do is to make bigger monitors with better resolutions. All printer manufacturers seem to do is to
Re:Apple (aka. Steve Jobs) (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Nah.... (Score:5, Insightful)
OS X has supported multiple buttons and scroll wheels natively since its very first release, as the OS's event architecture was originally designed to accommodate Next's three-button mouse. Apple continued to develop the multi-button support under OS X despite shipping a single-button mouse. Most OS X applications (Cocoa, Carbon, and even Java) have always automatically taken advantage of the OS-level support for scroll wheels and right-clicking for basic tasks (e.g. copy, cut, paste) without doing anything, plus OS X developers routinely add additional contextual menus and other types of support for modern mice. I don't know a single OS X developer who routinely uses a single button mouse, and I've met a good number of them. On top of that, I believe that the Mighty Mouse's buttons are fully customizable in the System Preferences (not sure on that - I still use an old Logitech mouse on my Mac)
OS X applications never require a multi-button mouse, but they almost universally support them.
Re:Nah.... (Score:5, Informative)
In my experience, the 'Mighty Mouse' is difficult to use as a two-button mouse, because if you have a finger resting on the "left-button region" of the mouse, tapping on the "right-button region" gets interpreted as left-clicking rather than right-clicking. In order to successfully do a right-click, you have to remember to lift your finger off of the left-button region first, which is really unintuitive and annoying.
Have other people noticed this problem also, or am I doing something wrong?
Re:Nah.... (Score:4, Interesting)
The side buttons are kind of worthless though, given how much force it takes to activate.
check with the lawyers (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:check with the lawyers (Score:3, Insightful)
iLife '06 comes in at 10:1 (Score:5, Interesting)
What I want... (Score:3, Interesting)
I'd like to see them open up the .Mac XMLRPC schema so it'd be easier for users to roll their own .Mac [tnpi.biz].
Ah heck, lets just list a couple of things I'd like to see (which are completely unrelated to iLife):
Re:iLife '06 comes in at 10:1 (Score:5, Informative)
As would I, however, in the meantime, perhaps this [iggsoftware.com] may interest you.
Quicken for mac (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm glad to know I'm not alone in this sentiment. I tried migrating from Quicken 2005 for Windows (running in VMWare) to Quicken for Mac 2006 and it was a disaster. Migration issues aside, when I managed to get enough imported to start using it, it crashed left and right. Intuit's "support" consisted of a painful java-based chat with some ESL monkey who was totally unhelpful...
Now I'm working on getting my money back and figuring out some other way to get my wife involved with the finances.
Price increases for iTunes (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:5, Insightful)
Personally, I don't care if the prices go to a tiered structure. I don't buy the "hits" so the songs I'd purchase would probably come out cheaper than $.99.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Insightful)
The music industry would, I'm sure, like to have a tiered structure set up like so:
Tier 1: Music you don't buy: $.49
Tier 2: Music you do buy: $2.99
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:2, Funny)
Now, how to market it.
Obviously the RIAA's attempt has been less than satisfactory.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Interesting)
Tier 2: Music you do buy: $2.99
Imagine if this were literally true: the prices you see are prices pitched to you individually based on their profile of you and your purchasing history. If your history shows you buy everything put out by a particular artist, those titles are pitched at higher prices to extract more money from your obsession-compulsion. Others may pay more or less.
It is technically feasible today: pricing not for what the market will bear but what each indi
That sound you hear? (Score:5, Insightful)
That sound you hear in the background is thousands of executives worldwide laughing at your naiveté.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3)
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:5, Interesting)
My prediction: If Apple goes to $ 1.99 for popular songs (read all but a small token number of the songs on the sight), allofmp3.com will begin to become an _enourmous_ hit (think Napster at its height). The RIAA is going to absolutely freak out and do everything in their power to shut them down. The funny thing is that that sight is bringing true market dynamics to selling music online (along with giving customers what they want, no DRM crap), but as much as they _say_ they are capitalists, the RIAA is just a price fixing oligarchy.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:2)
Apart from not actually paying the creators. That part of the "market dynamics" are a wee bit distorted.
And some portion of AllOfMP3's money surely goes to the Russian mafia, also known for such delightful activities as human trafficking. I can't see the Russian mob failing to take a chunk of a money-spinning business like this.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:4, Interesting)
Musicians obtain the vast majority of their income from live performances. Recordings serve the same purpose as radio play -- to promote performances. AllofMP3 does not represent a market failure.
There was music before there were records or radios. Selling copies of pre-recorded music is a very recent phenomenon for this art form. The disappearance of substantial cash flow from record sales will not harm our musical culture.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Interesting)
I see this falsehood repeated so often, especially when P2P is the subject. Having spent twenty years in the music industry, I can say with assurance that both of the above sentences are completely backwards.
In 2003, US gross numbers for live music totalled $2 billion. That same year, recorded music grossed $12 billion.
Most touring acts are lucky to break
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Interesting)
I've never seen a site that says "yep, allofmp3.com is illegal". In fact, I've never seen a music or RIAA rep say that, which is pretty unusual.
Firstly, I would say that the music industry guys WON'T register as required, as they DON'T want to provide legitimacy to the site. With the site running from Russia, and
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:4, Interesting)
now let the "soviet russia" jokes begin.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Insightful)
Now assuming they have the money put aside, as is required by Russian law, is it my fault that the recording companies haven't registered for the money?
No. In fact, if I were a recording artist, I'd be hounding my manager and anyone else that would listen to get their arses in to gear and sort it out because it's their fault that I wasn't getting my money.
Like I said in another post: if I were able to
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Interesting)
People complain "but it's taking money away from the artists". I say "no, it's the artists' managers and so on who are taking the money away from the artists, as they're frightened of admitting that it's a legal form of distribution, while still having no way to limit that distribution".
The record companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place in that that is their exact situation: they either take the money and have no control or don't take
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3)
sight = vision.
site = location.
as in, "we have an on-site admin" or "can you send someone out to the job site to check on this?". while there are many sights to be seen at various sites on the web, one does not go to a websight, but to a website.
got it? kthxbye.
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Insightful)
I'd totally buy into it if they also drastically lowered the price of less popular tracks. I don't listen to top 40 crap anyway. Go ahead and jack the price of Jessica Simpson tracks up by two or three time
Re:Price increases for iTunes (Score:3, Insightful)
Gentlemen, start you credit cards. (Score:4, Funny)
In the last time I have the impression that he is working, here in our company, for nothing.
I told him, that would be much easier, to talk with the payroll, so that they send his salary directly to Apple.
Bah, humbug!! (Score:3)
In the last time I have the impression that he is working, here in our company, for nothing.
I told him, that would be much easier, to talk with the payroll, so that they send his salary directly to Apple.
I could say the same thing about most of my colleagues and their expensive jeeps. There is no way I would ever get into that much debt because of a dispensable luxury like a car I only buy used ones and drive them until they fall apart out o
Stupid odds (Score:5, Funny)
The irony (Score:4, Funny)
Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel. Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.
Re:The irony (Score:4, Informative)
Re:The irony (Score:2, Interesting)
Oh, man, that's gotta hurt the Mac zealots even more than the switch to intel. Apple hiring *PC laptop designers* to build the next Powerbook.
Why? Who do you think makes the laptops for Apple? The same OEMs that make all of the PC laptops, that's who.
Re:The irony (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The irony (Score:4, Insightful)
I think Mac zelots (arguably myself included) are more enamored with the OS than the hardware. My gripe with PC manufactures out there is a lot of shoddy support, bottom-of-the-barrel parts, and bulky/ugly laptop design and only a handfull of gems.
And since they're former Sony... (Score:3, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The irony (Score:3, Funny)
Re:The irony (Score:5, Funny)
The thinner it is, the more suspectible it is to braking. ''
Absolutely. I always slow down very gently when I have one in my car. It is so susceptible to braking, I suspect it would break if I brake too hard.
Re:The irony (Score:3, Interesting)
Which makes the hiring of Vaio engineers (if true, of course) all the more amusing.
Upcoming products (Score:5, Interesting)
2. More tie-ins with TV producers
Who cares about the pro users? (Score:5, Insightful)
So, basically, he's saying that because a certain segment of the userbase will be waiting a little while, EVERYONE should wait?
If Apple doesn't ship Intel Powerbooks now, these users are going to be waiting, because they certainly aren't going to buy G4 powerbooks unless they absolutely have to. If Apple does ship Intel Powerbooks now, these users are going to be waiting for their apps to be shipped as Universal binaries.
So, given that these customers are ogoing to be waiting either way, why shouldn't Apple get hardware on the market to serve the customers who *can* buy now? Customers for whom XCode is their main app, not Photoshop or Final Cut.
Re:Who cares about the pro users? (Score:4, Insightful)
Because unlike every other laptop vendor out there, Apple is all about the full experience, not just the box. If Apple did what you're describing, why wouldn't people just go buy a Dell, or a Sony instead? It's the same hardware for the most part now...
If they want to keep their premium rep, they can't ship the new hardware until *all* of the new software is ready.
Re:Who cares about the pro users? (Score:3, Interesting)
It's not like this wouldn't be known up-front. Further, I would expect the very fact that so much runs, and so well, that any apps not ready yet won't be given much weight. And, they'd be shipping early.
Do you honestly think Apple is going to sit on their hands until Adobe gets their act together and ships?
Re:Who cares about the pro users? (Score:5, Insightful)
Apple switches to 32-bit clean 68K: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to System 7.0: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple starts using 68040: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to PowerPC: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple starts using SMP: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
Apple switches to OS X: Adobe promptly updates Photoshop
So except for these events you're correct. If you want a laggard, try Quark.
Re:Who cares about the pro users? (Score:3, Insightful)
And (Mac, Unix, Java) developers, scientists and, well, people who like good technology and can afford to splurge.
It's been widely noted how common OS X laptops have become at technical conferences and get-togethers. Those people are all potential happy purchasers of Intel Powerbooks, who would probably not be satisfied with an iBook (for one thing, iBooks
They forgot the.. (Score:5, Funny)
999999999-1
Re:They forgot the.. (Score:3, Funny)
My breakdown... (Score:5, Interesting)
10. OS 10.5 - not gonna happen. Apple is focused on Rosetta/Xcode QA for Mac OS X86. Whatever works well gets ported to 10.5 (think of 10.4 as the beta for X86)
9. X86 Powerbook - Could be. I would bet on this one.
8. iWork '06 - Could be. Who cares? I really like iWork '05. Pages is a treat, and Keynote is indespensible for me. But if they are working on a spreadsheet, yeah, this is the time to release it.
7. iLive '06 - Unless it adds things similar to Front Row, I don't see that it needs anything more than bug fixes. I wouldn't bet on it.
6. BT remote - Definitely going to be some kind of Front Row remote. Bluetooth? Probably. All new Macs have it, for several months now.
5. iTunes price increases - Not gonna happen. Steve knows this market. The market will not ignore him, no matter how greedy they are. Too much money is being made.
4. AirPort Ultra - Neat idea, but I won't bet on it. I would buy one, though
3. 1GB iPod Nano - Don't think so. The shuffle fills this space, but that's not big enough for the Nano's market segment.
2. X86 Mac Mini - I'd bet on this. I might even buy one for my parents. Their old IBM suck ass.
1. Widescreen X86 iBook - This one is obviously going to happen, but probably not now. Apple will drop 4:3 format entirely, as will the rest of the world (showing they are, as always, technology leaders). They just won't cannibalize Powerbook sales with iBooks until they have milked it long enough.
Re:My breakdown... (Score:5, Interesting)
That being said, the switch over to Intel is obviously going to be a big one and the chances for serious bugs is still high even with a lot of testing. Apple could try rolling out the mini/iBooks first to test the waters, knowing that pro customers make up a lot of Apple's revenues and are much less tolerant of bugs than say consumers.
Regardless, twenty-aught-six should be an interesting year for Apple!
Re:My breakdown... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:My breakdown... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:My breakdown... (Score:3, Interesting)
No, me too. I think we are the only two.
I mean they want to have differentiation between the consumer and pro models. Why not release the ibook with "similar" specs to the current powerbooks with celeron or lowend pentium m processors? This will prevent major cannabalization of the current powerbook lines and allow them to release the yonah based powerbooks as the pro model they really are.
There will be a single single- [arstechnica.com]
Re:My breakdown... (Score:3, Insightful)
I've seen this incorrect information in more than one place. It's not emulation, it's on-the-fly translation. It is not painfully slow, and some of that software will run substantially faster on the new notebooks than on the old G4s.
Native x86 software, of course, will be faster still.
I'm getting an Intel Powerbook as soon as I'm reasonably sure there aren'
Re:My breakdown... (Score:3, Informative)
Except that they would not be first. I checked a random PC laptop vender (Sony) and they don't have any non-widescreen models at the moment. Sorry.
I predict (Score:5, Funny)
I'm sure they'll keep flogging the iPod cash cow; maybe an iPod portable DVD player?
Re:I predict (Score:3, Funny)
How will we know? (Score:3, Informative)
"Journalism" (Score:3, Informative)
Major and minor Mac news sites like Macintouch [macintouch.com] and MacNN [macnn.com] always have someone in the audience blogging the Apple presentation in real time. Lately Apple's been blocking wi-fi connections during the presentation, but you still get the information immediately after it's over.
iLife and iWork '05 for Intel (Score:2)
new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks (Score:4, Funny)
Re:new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks (Score:2)
Re:new and sexy Intel Mac Minis and iBooks (Score:2, Insightful)
Two Things (Score:2)
2. Who's "Jason the Greek" [google.com]? No dice on my initial search. Do I live in a cave? (You don't have to answer that.)
Inconsistencies... (Score:4, Insightful)
BT Mighty Mouse (Score:3, Interesting)
He doesn't bring that up, or do most think it is so insignifigant, that it doesn't rate being mentioned.
Huh? (Score:3, Insightful)
-The AirPort "Ultra" would "be able to stream video to your TV - in High Definition". Where is all this HD content coming from? Not from the iTMS, not from DVDs. Assuming this AirPort is running 802.11g, streaming HD content is iffy at best. Apple is known for making things easy. I don't see how this could possibly fly as a consumer product. Maybe in another year or two, with faster WiFi and more HD content.
-Jason reckons that the Intel PowerBooks won't be released because (despite all the engineering done) not all the pro software is written yet for Intel, and Rosetta emulation just isn't fun. But then his #1 prediction is for Intel iBooks? Doesn't make sense to me.
-Why are iLife & iWork updates so unlikely (10% and 4% odds, respectively)? Unless Apple is just willing to let this software die (unlikely given relations with Microsoft), this is practically a given. Maybe not until summer, but the odds of an announcement or mention are more likely on the order of 50% - 75%, IMO.
Sorry, I'm just not buying it. Guess I'll wait until next week to find out for sure.
I'm holding out for (Score:5, Funny)
Known for its skills in magic.
SpeedBump's Mini wishlist (Score:5, Interesting)
1) Optical Audio (we want surround sound!)
2) Better DVD playback software (for a UI centered company like Apple, "DVD Player" program blows donkey wang)
3) RF receiver (for my kick ass universal remote, or maybe Apple can make a bluetooth+RF remote)
4) Better support for my TV (having to use VNC to set it up is beyond most people)
I've been using a Mac Mini as my entertainment hub for a while now (almost a year), and its great. DVDs, AVI and WM files, ITunes though my stereo, internet surfing on my HD TV, flash, movie previews, games; the list goes on and on. Its quiet, low power, wakes quickly, and does what I want it to do.
Oh, and can you guys please make it so I can autohide the menu bar? You know, like the dock can do.
Re:SpeedBump's Mini wishlist (Score:3, Insightful)
A DVD player which doesn't moan about regions and doesn't prevent you from skipping would be a good start. I know about VLC and MPlayer OS X, but they don't work well on all DVDs. I have Region 1 DVDs which I can't even play on my Mac, but which work fine on my Linux box. This isn't the way it's supposed to be ...
Rich.
Re:SpeedBump's Mini wishlist (Score:5, Informative)
Why the "Replace Tivo" hardon? (Score:4, Insightful)
I just dont think Apple is going to make a DVR to actually compete with Tivo. Let alone "defeat it in one fell swoop!!#!11111!!!".
Might they make DVR software for say, college kids and such? With a little dongle for cable input? Sure. But this would hardly make any waves in the DVR market.
Well my friend that works at Apple says... (Score:5, Funny)
The Flying Spaghetti Monster iPod. This iPod includes a non-removable case for your iPod made out of durable foam latex. A respectable amount of "noodly appendages" keep the iPod off your desk and floating mysteriously in the air. This can be had for you and your loved ones for the price of... $599, $100 of which is donated directly to the beer volcano.
An old catchprase (Score:3, Funny)
It can be said about a woman looking for a date at an engineering school or next Apple keynote: "The odds are good but the goods are odd."
The one sure thing (Score:3, Insightful)
Geoff
Noooooooo! (Score:4, Insightful)
And then Apple can kiss all of its corporate sales goodbye. Nope, not gonna happen. Maybe a light-duty, somewhat-compatible spreadsheet for people to make little lists with, but Apple knows it will lose more in corporate hardware sales than it can ever make back with their little $99-a-pop suite.
Besides, if there's one thing we have learned, it's that 100% compatibility with MS Office file formats is impossible. Can OOo do it? Can Quark or InDesign perfectly import Word docs? Hell, do MS Office for Mac and Win perfectly read each others' files? No, no, and no.
Re:Noooooooo! (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Noooooooo! (Score:5, Insightful)
Pointless Macworld Story (Score:4, Interesting)
Some executive from Microsoft coming over and hanging out too. With the programmers, basically talking about some info John Carmack posted on Worldnet BBS about using Eigenvectors for color quantization of video to 256 colors. A great excuse to spend some time in their booth
When Carmack came up, of course so did Wolfenstein. I remember the MS guy talking about how it gave him motion sickness. LOL
I was suprised by the sheer amount of porn there. They had one porn booth that was enclosed in a curtain with the hardcore stuff. There were so many dudes in there, when you walked by, you could see their shapes presses against the curtains. Like in the movies when the ghouls start coming out of the wall.
Damn that's creepy. Last place I'm going to watch porn is pressed against 20 other dudes.
Screw 10.5 (Score:3, Interesting)
Firewire and iLife (Score:3, Insightful)
Don't be surprised if this IBook is the first to ship without a FireWire port.
Which instantly eliminates one of the big USPs of the whole iLife suite - that you can import, edit and burn your own movies. Without Firewire, how are you supposed to get the data off your digital camcorder? (Do many camcorders support USB 2.0 yet?) And what about all those people (like me) who have their data backed up on Firewire external drives? What are they supposed to do, transfer it on Zip discs when they upgrade?
Hell, Apple invented Firewire, so it's not like they have to pay a per-unit royalty to have one somewhere on the machine.
Re:Probably not... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:A great technological marvel (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:A great technological marvel (Score:3, Interesting)
the best solution is something like SideTrack which lets you use your trackpad as up to 5 buttons and 2 scrollbars.
plus the design of only *needing* 1 buttons is great.
Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha (Score:5, Informative)
Buddhism has a tenet known as "right livelihood", and for a layman selling consumer products doesn't violate it. Things like being a butcher, or selling intoxicants, or selling weapons would, but not the selling of computers, regardless of how pre-expo rumors can have a seemingly intoxicating effect on Mac fans.
Technically, it's the users doing it to themselves.
Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Jobs is the Anti Buddha (Score:5, Informative)
I think you're misreading Buddhism. The Desire and Ignorance spoken of in the passage you quoted are personal in scope. One quenches his own desire, destroys his own ignorance, and thus (eventually) relieves his own suffering.
The desire for the product exists in the individual consumer, who is his own responsibility. Do people really blame Steve Jobs for somehow forcing them to desire things? If you're "suffering" from desire for an iPod, that's your own damn problem.
That said, it is wrong conduct to scheme and pursue gain for it's own sake, and one could argue that these are unavoidable for the CEO of a large corporation, but I suppose that's up to the adherent to decide.
Hm it seems doubtful Apple products are actually the path to spiritual awakening.
Who ever claimed they were?
Awh shucks, well if it makes you feel better (Score:4, Funny)
Wich can only lead to the conclusion that all the real work is being done on OS/2.
Re:Intel Integrated Graphics (Score:3, Informative)
Your doubts are unfounded, the demo Jobs gave at the Intel announcement WWDC were all on a desktop box with integrated graphics - identical to all the x86 development boxes that've been sent out.
Re:Apple (Score:3, Funny)
Re:How about giving putting a DVD-R in the iBook (Score:3, Insightful)
Those are just work arounds.
Fact is, this is how Apple works. They like to dangle a carrot in front of your face (The $999 iBook, the Shuffle) to get you interested. But the thing is, they cripple the low end models so they can try to upsell you to the higher end models. And they like to carefully set their price points so that the next model up is "just a bit more".
On the