Apple to Buy TiVo? 491
vallette writes "Reuters is reporting that Apple may be interested in buying TiVo. Seems like a good fit to me. Both companies stock price is up on the rumor."
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Apple to Buy TiVo?
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Go for it! (Score:5, Interesting)
Of course the business analysis will make the ultimate determination of whether or not Apple is willing to make the move, (and Tivo has been losing money), but if any company can make it work, while showing the MPAA and equivalent TV organization a past history of success in media with iTunes, Apple is it. Come on, how would you like to in addition to the traditional PVR duties, be able to pull up TV episodes of old series that are not being shown, even in syndication? Or have a truly "on demand" movie library of all sorts, not just the popular canned options that cable companies think will be most profitable?
Alternatively... (Score:5, Interesting)
As usual, good ideas never live up to the reality and the problem here isn't so cut and dried. CONTENT is the issue. All I see Apple gaining is the TiVO name (which in and of itself isn't a bad thing). Content suppliers are the ones who will have to meet consumers halfway and if what's been going on with the DMCA, Broadcast Flag, and other nonsense, I don't see this changing.
Now... If Apple decides to take chances and 'loophole' solutions to let their consumers do what they want with the content - THAT would be interesting. So far, it appears the consumer electronics industry as a whole is rolling over when challenged by the likes of the RIAA and MPAA.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually, Steve Jobs might be the one guy who can do this. Remember, he's not just a potential DVR manufacturer, he is also, through Pixar, a content producer himself. So as he did with iTunes, he may well be able to work out a DRM scheme that is acceptable to the industry, yet not unacceptable to the average consumer.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Insightful)
iPod Media Center or ... (Score:3)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:5, Insightful)
This puts him way ahead of most the CEO pack. His repertoire of leadership practices extends beyond posturing and playing power games with his subordinates, although he certainly does those things well enough.
You may rightfullly despise Jobs' personal style with respect to his subordinates (as I do), but at this late date it's pretty clear he's not some empty suit. In particular, he is smart enough to understand the strategy of enlightened self interest. In that respect, his ties to the entertainment industry give him the credibility that walking in their shoes and talking their language brings.
So a Tivo/Apple marriage could potentially be a watershed event in the whole DRM affair.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Insightful)
Pick on Mikey! (Score:3, Informative)
<Insert your own Michael Eisner joke here>
For those who don't get it, Eisner predicted that Finding Nemo would be a box-office bomb. But what do you expect from a guy who greenlighted Home on the Range?
Re:Pick on Mikey! (Score:3, Interesting)
Plus Pixar's refusal to make Toy Story 2 a crappy direct-to-video movie calls in to question Disney Animation's whole business plan of making one good movie a decade then turning it into a franchise of bad movies/TV
Re:Alternatively... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Interesting)
Hello? iTunes Music Store on your TiVO, anyone? Not to mention if Apple starts selling music videos or other video content via iTMS...
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Alternatively... (Score:4, Insightful)
There is a reason why some music is not yet available on iTunes. Every company wants to own the online portion of this business and Apple - while they may be the biggest - is certainly not the only one. And we haven't even gotten to fighting with the big movie houses. You think Sony's Pictures division is going to be interested in supporting someone else's standard? I don't think so. 'Spiderman' is on it's way to a PSP near you but I'll be it would be a LONG time indeed before Jobs would be allowed to sell it.
What makes DVD ubiquitous is the fact that you can find tons of content of every type for it, and know that it will play on your player. TiVO has built a business on a relatively open platform - the user's cable tv.
I'm just not convinced that Apple needs TiVO to do 'iVids' or ultimately what this will get them.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Insightful)
Yes, it's probably just coincidence that the President of Sony appeared on stage with Jobs at the last MacWorld [macobserver.com]. He probably was just passing by and thought he'd stop in to say "Hi."
Re:Alternatively... (Score:5, Interesting)
Apple would not only get the name but the familiar and excellent Tivo interface/software. This includes the familiar and excellent Tivo remote. Sure, upside down it looks like a, ahem, little black dildo [designfund.co.kr], but other than that its probably the best remote design out there. They also get Tivo's customer base and a chance to build upon a well-known brand.
Lastly, they also get all that sweet, sweet tv datamining. The data tivo collects makes the Neilson system look like 1950's technology. Apple could better resell or use this information than tivo currently does. Sounds weird? Not any weirder than Apple being the largest online digital music seller and mp3 player producer.
There's a lot to tivo Apple can build on. If apple wants to bridge the TV/PC gap then this looks like a smart move.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Funny)
Hey there Mister, you missed a zero! No Tivo for you! One year!
Re:Alternatively... (Score:5, Insightful)
Okay, I'll bite. TiVo collects anonymous statistics. The annual "most-replayed Super Bowl moment" press release is a marketing gimmick. It makes the handful of people who still don't know what TiVo is sit up and say "wow, I wish I could do that."
Sure, there's the potential for them to connect those statistics to customer names and sell it to advertisers, but TiVo has built a solid reputation for being a company, like Google, that "gets it". They earned our trust years ago when they turned a blind eye [com.com] to hacking, and they've done an admirable job of walking the line between customer satisfaction and entertainment industry lawsuits.
Let's put this in context. Google issues a press release every year about their Zeitgeist [google.com] site. Are you upset that they keep statistics on top queries? Does it worry you that every search you do can be traced back to your IP address? Are you outraged that this info may be used to build databases for Google Suggest [google.com]?
If so, then put your tinfoil hat back on and let's agree to disagree.
Re:Alternatively... (Score:3, Informative)
It's a contractual issue, and they *can't*. They've deliberately set up theri agreements this way.
This was actually litigated in another context a couple of years ago. A compy (etoys? itoys?) had pledged that if you provided your email, it would never be released to any third party under any circumstances. The compnay found itself in bankruptcy, and other companies tried to buy the list. The privacy conditions were upheld. (ISTR that in the end, Disney bought it out to destroy the l
Ask them if they care (Score:3, Informative)
Firstly, most people wouldn't care at all. Secondly, TiVo has been doing it for years, and although the *potential* for them to do evil things exists, it just hasn't manifested itself.
Having your TiVo spy on you is kinda like having your mom spy on you. Sure, she could potentially embarrass you and do all kinds of other awful things, but you're pretty sure she won't, so you don't bother to hide things from her.
Besides, if the remote-monitoring bothers you *you can opt out!*
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Funny)
Or are their deaths still interdependent?
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Funny)
It'll seem faster because you can skip the commercials.
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Insightful)
As a TiVo owner, I'd like to see Apple buy TiVo.
But as an Apple stockholder, I don't see what Apple gets out of the deal.
DVR technology? It's no great secret. There are open-source DVRs. If they want to buy the technology, Elgato [elgato.com] is probably cheaper, and their stuff already runs on OS X.
The TiVo brandname? Apple is probably one of the few companies with little to gain from the Tivo name. Apple already has more brand recognition than TiVo, and they'd to better to merchandise a hypothetical Apple DVR as "the company that brought you the iPod" than on the basis of the less well known TiVo name.
The TiVo interface? It's impressive for a consumer electronics product, but nothing special by Apple standards. Presumably, Apple would want to roll their own, as they did for iPod.
Tivo's current customers? If they aren't making a profit for TiVo, why would they make one for Apple? Besides, Apple presumably will want to introduce something like the iTunes Music Store for HD video. This will require H.264 [apple.com] for efficient content delivery. Current TiVo hardware can't handle this. Presumably, current TiVo owners will be looking to upgrade in the next few years to a DVR with HD capability. Why shouldn't it be an Apple instead of a TiVo?
TiVo's patents? This is the only thing I can think of that Apple might want. But I'm not sure how crucial they are. They certainly haven't stopped cable companies from handing out competing DVRs, or Elgato from implementing one on the Mac. Still, I suppose that it is possible that TiVo has some patent that would be crucial to the kind of user experience that Apple hopes to create.
Eliminating a potential competitor for the DVR market? Again, perhaps, but at the moment TiVo isn't seeming like that big a threat.
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Insightful)
Think of possible upgrades. "Buy a computer AND a DVR" at a switch of a button you can browse the 'net on your hdtv, click a button and you're back to watching the shows you missed while browsing on the 'net. Hell, it wouldn't be so out of the ordinary that the DVR and OS can mingle together in some capacity (but not too much as they would want to keep the setup as simple as possible).
When people buy a second home computer, they're going to buy the type of computer that's already found controlling their TV.
Microsoft gained dominance by attacking the business market back in the 80s. Gaining dominance now means that a company needs to attack the home entertainment market.
And someone will bring up how the game systems are trying to do DVR work. They won't succeed nearly as well because their is no line of succession past those systems. An Apple branded Tivo could lead to an Apple/Tivo hybrid (separate hardware in the same enclosure, don't make the mistake of windows mce) that leads to people using an Apple as their primary computer. Apple can do this because they do a great job of homogenizing their brand. An XBox has no consumer friendly interoperatiblity (sp?) with a Windows box.
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Interesting)
I wouldn't think it would be that much of a stretch to get the Tivo software working on a Mac with extra hardware for the MPEG-2 encoding and TV Tuners anyways. Not to mention it would probably work very well with the home video strategy Apple is pursuing on their desktops.
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Insightful)
Tivo has a large HDD, a network connection, and a large installed base. If you go with MPEG2 (still the DVD standard) instead of MPEG4, you A: save yourself a lot of re-encoding costs and B: incentivize buying a newer model with a bigger hard drive.
This would be great. I don't think it's serious, but this would be great.
Don't forget, Apple bought the basis for iTunes and the iPod before making them over with good design.
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Insightful)
Developing from scratch would take what, a year minimum? These boxes have to be solid. You can't just throw MythTV into a system and start shipping.
Buying TiVo gives them a running start. They can always call it the Apple TiVo or the Mac TiVo if they want.
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Funny)
or the iVo!
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Interesting)
The subscribers have obsolete equipment that won't be able to handle h.264 (MPEG-4), which Apple will need for HD content delivery. Why not sell them an Apple box instead of an Apple/TiVo box when they decide to upgrade? (and they'd be less likely to expect a special deal for being "loyal subscrib
You missed the point... (Score:3, Insightful)
Tivo's current customers? If they aren't making a profit for TiVo, why would they make one for Apple? Besides, Apple presumably will want to introduce something like the iTunes Music Store for HD video. This will require H.264 [apple.com] for efficient content delivery. Current TiVo hardware can't handle this. Presumably, current TiVo owners will be looking to upgrade in the next few years to a DVR with HD capability. Why s
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Informative)
Don't worry, it's a minor one.
Pixlet is designed for video editing. It compresses each frame individually. This is good for doing certain effects, since any frame can be pulled out of context.
MPEG-4 compression uses previous frames to make a frame. This allows the file to be smaller, but doesn't allow frames to pulled out of context for effects to be added.
Hope that clears things up! Otherwise, great post.
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Go for it! (Score:5, Funny)
it's "sole purpose", dumb-ass.
otherwise, great post.
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Go for it! (Score:3, Interesting)
Right... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Right... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Right... (Score:5, Funny)
Maybe it's going here (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Maybe it's going here (Score:5, Informative)
heh.
Re:Maybe it's going here (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Maybe it's going here (Score:5, Funny)
Figures (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Figures (Score:3, Insightful)
In my day... (Score:2, Interesting)
the little "i" thing (Score:5, Funny)
Maybe they should buy Audi as well (Score:3)
Ob. Family Guy (Score:3, Funny)
Digital hub (Score:4, Interesting)
iPodTV anyone?
--Fairfax Underground [fairfaxunderground.com]: Where Fairfax County comes out to play
Mac Tivo? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Mac Tivo? (Score:5, Funny)
Wait till you see the one-button remote control.
(I kid because I love.)
Re:Mac Tivo? (Score:3, Informative)
It already has one. Much in the Mac spirit, virtually all TiVo functions can be accessed just with the directional pad and the single select button. Most of the other buttons are just optional shortcuts.
I wish (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:I wish (Score:4, Interesting)
I like the part about "cheaper" (Score:2, Funny)
Apple Product Cycle (Score:5, Funny)
Ready, Set... (Score:2, Funny)
Snide Remark (Score:2, Insightful)
Frankly, I'm not really interested in paying $699.00 for a TiVo in translucent blue plastic.
Besides, it doesn't seem all that great a fit. TiVo is based on Linux, and Apple has spent the last half decade working on Mach/BSD. "Apple-izing" the TiVo would take an enormous amount of parallel engineering, during which time no new TiVo products would come out.
It's almost a cool idea, but I don't see it working.
Schwab
Re:Snide Remark (Score:5, Insightful)
WTF is up with the blue plastic crack? How many current Apple products come in blue plastic?
Re:Snide Remark (Score:3, Insightful)
After all, as you so astutely pointed out, TiVo runs Linux, and Mac OS is based on BSD. The two are far more similar than different.
I think the "analyst" -- and I use that term very loosely -- is demonstrating the very definition of "wishful thinking," but you're insane if you think an Apple TiVo would cost $200 more than a Mac mi
Re:Snide Remark (Score:4, Insightful)
2) Why would it be difficult to port the actual PVR software to OS X?
3) Why would it cost you $699?
4) Why would it be in blue plastic?
I suspect it would cost $499 and come in a Mac mini shaped box as additional software, and it would integrate with some kind of media software, like iTunes, and use Rendezvous to stream it across the network to all your Macs/PCs, and it would be compressed in H.264
Re:Snide Remark (Score:3, Funny)
The answer probably involves a sentence ending in, "you cocksmoking teabaggers," but I'm not going to go there.
A use for the Mac Mini (Score:2, Interesting)
Could mae a lot of sense - it would look pretty nice next to a tv.. with a wireless controlloer of some sort.. could be a very nice package.
How do you think apple's FairWatch (or whatever they choose to call it) would end up looking like?
The discussions went something like... (Score:5, Interesting)
"Of course it would also nice if we could somehow integrate some PVR-like capabilities into our system... Time shifting and the like... Well say, that's what you boys do, now that I think about it. Look... You could sell media boxs for the next few years, until the cable companies, and the satellite companies put you out of business, Or... You could join up with me, and we can change the world!"
Tivo + Airport Express = Sweet. (Score:3, Interesting)
Why would this work for Apple? Yes, Tivo is getting hammered by the big cable companies, but Apple has never needed market share to succeed, if they make a nice box to fix in the home threatre cabinet then the Apple hoardes will follow.
Apple better off on there own (Score:4, Informative)
Far better off just making their own PVR software. You can already hack together a pretty nice PVR using a Motorola DCT-6200 and a Mac. see here : http://macteens.com/more.php?id=410_0_1_0_C [macteens.com]
The only reason Apple might want tivo is to leverage themselves somehow into the way that cable/satellite/ip content is distributed, just to block M$ push. Maybe i'm missing something but I don't see how buying tivo would help much if any with this.
That said I would love to see a nice Mac Mini DVR from Apple. That said if they don't make one, not too hard to make one yourself.
I, for one, welcome our iPippen overlords
Re:Apple better off on there own (Score:3, Interesting)
Maybe they're holding out until the stock price drops lower before they buy. The answer to your question is that Apple is buying the brand, and for cheap. They also probably have some internet-to-Tivo movie distribution scheme in mind. This could be big.
One more thing: You meant "their" not "there". Please don't
Re:Apple better off on there own (Score:3, Insightful)
Yeah, Apple would never base a product on tech they got by buying a company that had fallen on hard times.
That's why when it came time to design OS X, they made sure to start by buying a thriving, market-leading company with tons of customers: NeXT! :-)
My Tivo Sucks (Score:3, Funny)
In addition, during this program transfer, the Channel Guide will not work. And everything else has ground to a halt. Even the media player software for the PC is straining to keep up as I type this.
I won't bore you with the laundry list of other problems that I've encountered while working on various Tivos, but suffice it to say there have been many, not the least of which is I've never seen a Tivo that has run faster than its Wintel counterpart, despite the Tivo's faster Linux architecture. My ReplayTV with 8gigs of HD runs faster than this machine at times! From a productivity standpoint, I don't get how people can claim that the Tivo is a superior machine.
Tivo addicts, flame me if you'd like, but I'd rather hear some intelligent reasons why anyone would choose to use a Tivo over other faster, cheaper, more stable systems.
(Word to the mods. [kottke.org])
Cue the obvious comment (Score:3, Funny)
Perfect Match (Score:4, Funny)
Wonder when Apple will pick up BSD cause that's been dying forever, oh wait.
Mac mini is the next TiVo unit? (Score:5, Interesting)
1. Mac mini can be a TiVo unit (just use the S-Video out adapter for your TV set). Although it'll need a TV card (wish they'd come out with something like the Hauppauge Nexus-S satellite TV card).
2. Next generation iPod Photo will probably be iPod Video with content that can be transferred from your TiVo unit (the Mac mini) to your iPod Video portable unit.
3. Apple is probably not happy with just distributing music media (via its iTunes store) but is looking to the future to also provide downloadable video content via an "iVideo" store--what better way to do that than to buy the TiVo customer base and offer them this content.
4. Apple can ensure that the saved video content has the right digital stamps (a la
The one downside I see in this merger is that Apple will probably concentrate less and less on the service of "timeshifting" (i.e. drop it entirely), unless they can ensure that users have a right to that material. READ: unless the bigwigs of TV land is happy about how Apple handles digital rights management of timeshifted/saved content. Although timeshifting and saving media for later viewing is currently acceptable, the logical path that this technology leads to, is the ability to share that content or make it portable--something that is not yet acceptable among Hollywood and the TV networks.
Re:Mac mini is the next TiVo unit? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Mac mini is the next TiVo unit? (Score:3, Interesting)
Simplest case, a Sony-made companion box for the Mac Mini, call it MacTiVo. Firewire to the Mac Mini, full set of A/V connections to your other A/V components.
More complex, and less likely. A Sony-made Mac Mini Plus - Tivo & Macintosh features all in one box.
Far fetched. Mac Mini Super - TiVo & Macintosh featu
Re:Mac mini is the next TiVo unit? (Score:3, Informative)
Debt (Score:5, Interesting)
Doesn't TiVo have a huge amount of debt? While their product may be interesting, I am under the belief that if Apple were to purchase Tivo, it would mean also having to acquire that debt--whereas, if anything, if Apple just purchased the rights to the TiVo software (to run on a mini, etc) they don't have to take on that debt too.
What does Apple gain from a TiVo purchase vs a license to their tech? If Tivo were making money, there'd be that--but they aren't and their prospects are dim.
I can see Apple licensing the tech, releasing it for free (for Macs) or as part of their iLife tools--and then charging a sub to hit Apple servers for schedule download. And I think they could do really interesting things with DRM content with OS X as a platform. I guess we'll see.
Re:Debt (Score:5, Insightful)
Jobs, not Apple... (Score:3, Insightful)
Why not TiVo? (Score:4, Interesting)
Regardless of its declining status, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't TiVo still the current market leader for PVR products? I mean, if Apple DOES want to quickly get into the PVR market, wouldn't it just make sense to buy the market leader and go from there if possible?
It just seems to me that even if TiVo is losing money and/or subscribers and/or market share, it would be a hell of a lot easier for Apple to buy it and turn it around than to start from scratch and overtake them with a whole new product line. Besides, TiVo does still have some interesting things going on. Even though the deal is winding down, they still have the DirecTV subscribers, plus the Home Media capabilities (easily integrated with iPods), plus the Netflix deal, and so on.
Whether or not this actually happens, it seems to me that this would be a sweet deal for both companies, if (and only if) Apple seriously wants to get into the media center market.
(If Apple does this just to "play around" in the media center market, then it will be an unmitigated disaster for both companies.)
anatomy of a rumor (Score:5, Informative)
TiVo Sale Rumors -- link
by: phillipswann 02/23/05 12:21 pm
Msg: 239226 of 239994
http://www.swannisez.com/tivorumor022305.html
(If you look at that link now, it's a rehash of Reuters news concerning the rumor, with no hint that Swann -- who has probably scared himself half to death by singlehandedly moving the market -- started this rumor himself)
At 3:11 pm, Marketwatch issued a sloppy story [marketwatch.com] that credited an entity called "Inside Digital Media" for cracking the apple buyout story. However, if you visit the site, [insidedigitalmedia.com] you will find a blog entry that presents a well-reasoned rationale as to why Apple should buy Tivo, but no hard news at all.
Subsequently, analyst Steven Kroll, Jr. (whose dad is a senior partner at the same firm) provided the "what we hear on the street" quote that Reuters served up.
No one seems to have bothered at all to trace this garbage to its specious sources.
I own some Tivo, and was watching all of this today because I was considering cutting my losses (this dog had lost one-third of its value in a month). Instead, I'm holding on and hoping for a short squeeze, or even the possibility that the rumors will alert video-on-demand competitors to what a bargain TIVO's 3 million subscribers would be for anyone seeking a toehold on the living room.
So, while it looks to me that the rumor is only that, I wouldn't be too surprised if it became reality.
Blogs are both good and bad for journalism (Score:4, Interesting)
What's particularly interesting about this saga is that it was started by some random guy who could be your next door neighbor or someone embedded deep in Apple. Who really knows?
The sloppy reporting that followed was then exposed by aka-ed, who though not "blogging" it in the most exact sense of the term was for all intents and purposes doing just that - taking advantage of a Web forum to shed a little light on how the rumor got started.
The interplay between traditional "Big Media" players and bloggers is getting weirder and weirder every day.
Re:anatomy of a rumor (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:anatomy of a rumor (Score:3, Insightful)
Thanks for that. It's nice to know where this all started, because... well, despite all of the talk and speculation, I don't see how it would make _any_ sense at all for Apple.
The true advantage TiVo has in the marketplace consist of (1) some patents on DVR tech and concepts, like Season Pass and such, (2) scheduling data to support tha
cringely's prediction (Score:3, Interesting)
Pricing? (Score:3, Insightful)
For bette ror worse, peopl will ocmpare them to $50 VCRs and think - $300 Why? Plus $12 a month? No way.
That makes it hard to get th market share needed to sustain it in the long run. Sure, TiVo does a lot more, but you need to convince the average consumer, not a
TiVo is not exactly a household name, and I don't see Apple changing it's business model to sell them. After all, we don't see cheap 40G iPods to sell iTunes.
OTOH, Apple could want some critical technology and buy TiVo to get it, then kill the service. Jobs is pretty ruthless with things he didn't invent, witness the newton, and some he did. Is TiVo NeXT?
OTOOH, Appple has some great hardware engineers, and maybe they could come up with a TiVo Shuffle.
Re:Pricing? (Score:3, Interesting)
So people would have to buy the hardware outright. They'll probably get a one year subscription for free. Then pay monthly after that.
You can't really compare Apple products to mere VCRs and DVD players. Apple does a fantastic job at selling highly priced hardware to people willing to pay. In other words, Apple's version of Tivo wou
Re:Pricing? (Score:3, Insightful)
Or Apple will just require a .Mac subscription to get the program guide data.
AAPL (Score:3, Informative)
It just makes sense. (Score:3, Informative)
My 1st generation TiVO is already a box that sits in my living room, connected to my stereo, from which I could play songs/videos pulled off my hard drive. An I'm running Mac OS X. Considering I ended up buying a second device to do just the music piece of this http://www.slimdevices.com/ [slimdevices.com] if Apple came out with a new TiVo that did this plus movies, I'd have to seriously consider upgrading my TiVO.
Its inevitable and obvious that Apple was going to eventually build a device to serve as the home entertainmentcomputer connection. For one thing, Steve Jobs said so about 8 years ago. They already have the codec to use for the video portion: H.264/AVC http://developer.apple.com/macosx/tiger/index.htm
Whether or not they do an iVideos store is probably moot in the end. TiVo is a success just doing broadcast TV, the real growth would be becoming the defacto standard for digital cable and satellite. TiVO hasn't really persued this, but I expect Apple might, there's nothing sacred about the settop box business, and Apple has already show willingness to license iPod to other vendors like HP/Motorola.
Nor does iVideos require broadband. DirecTV is already marketing cheap movies to PVR owners like myself. Come to think of it, even without broadband you could easily sell a service that was satellite based and offered you a menu of 100 different movies a month. After all, over pay per view, I already have a menu of about 25 movies/month, and the only reason its only 25 is because they repeat the movie all day long. With a Tivo, they would only have to broadcast a movie once.
Hmmm... The TiVo already has a modem, so it could connect to a master server, order any movie from a long list of movies, then get the movie downloaded in one burst via the satellite. Since multiple people could mooch off the same movie download, it might be possible to have a list of 1000 movies available. If you picked an obscure movie, you might have to wait 24 hours for a download slot to open. It would be inconvenient, but if new releases were instantaneous (since you could start in the middle of any running download), its proabably acceptable.
So say $500 for a new box that plugs into my existing video crap, lets me download from a list of 1000 movies over my satellite dish, replaces my sqeezebox for music (one less thing), stores all my DVDs for easy playback (less crap in the living room). In a word, hmm...
TiVO couldn't do it alone, but Apple and TiVO could do it together.
Apple can make Tivo Cheaper (Score:3, Insightful)
Take a $499 Mac Mini form factor. Remove the CD-RW, lower the processor speed, and use less expensive single purpose GFX hardware. You'll likely get hardware that is actually sold at cost instead of below cost.
Add to the mix the fact that you're reseting the company, and can visit media partners you'd previously blown it with.
Add to the mix being able to add the Tivo Software (Linux on PowerPC) to Mac (BSD-Like on PowerPC).
Leverage Apples Media and Content distribution services.
It might just work.
Does Apple even need TiVo? (Score:3, Insightful)
The key component missing from TiVo's business model is something Apple has already done with music -- replaced broadcast with play on demand. (This is probably why iPods don't have FM tuners, even though they could be added for insignificant cost -- Steve Jobs/Apple is simply anti-broadcast as a concept. You decide what you download / rip and play, not some random DJ or corporation.)
Many of the companies Apple cut deals with to make iTunes Music Store possible are the same companies it would have to cut deals with to make Mac Mini Video Store possible.
TiVo's model in a nutshell: If it gets broadcast, we'll make it easier for you to watch, kind of. But because the legalities are iffy, we'll place some weird artificial restrictions on what you can do with the recorded material. We haven't changed the relationship between the consumer and the content producer -- advertising is still paying for the broadcast, but our profitability is in large part predicated on screwing the advertiser.
iTMS model translated to video: If you own it, we'll let you RIP it (or at minimum play it for you). If you don't own it, we'll let you download it for a reasonable fee (and maybe burn it). You pay for the content, not the advertiser, and not your cable company. You get exactly what you want, when you want it, not a rough approximation with ads you can kind of skip over.
Re:Imagine if this was Microsoft... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Strange... (Score:3, Informative)
The Tivo boxes out there, and Tivo's 3 million subscribers (6x the half-million they had at the beginning of 2003) can provide that scale. The Tivo is a linux box, so compatability with Apple devices will not be a problem.
Mind you, I believe the rumor is only a rumor, but Tivo does have a lot to offer Apple if it comes about.
Re:renamed to (Score:3, Funny)
"Dad, during the Superbowl halftime, I saw a Nipple on the Tipple!"
You don't do justice to the .torrents and eDonkeys (Score:3, Insightful)
I agree with the gist of your post, but actually many of the "bootleg" TV episodes on BitTorrent and eDonkey are exceptionally high quality.
Many are recorded direct from HDTV and carefully encoded by real fans (doing virtually professional work as a labor of love). They have clean edits to remove the commercial
Re:Dear God (Score:3, Funny)