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Dvorak to Apple - Stop The iPhone 409

Posted by Zonk
from the wave-off-wave-off dept.
eldavojohn writes "John Dvorak is advising Apple to cease all efforts on the iPhone, citing the mobile handset business as a 'buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies.' With Apple's image as a 'hot company that can do no wrong' on the line, Dvorak warns that the extremely fad-prone marketplace for cell phones will quickly turn the 'hot' iPhone passe'. Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail. 'If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'"
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Dvorak to Apple - Stop The iPhone

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  • Seriously, there's nothing to see here. Move along. Dvorak has known for decades that Apple users are protective of the Apple name and products. So he regularly goes about trying to get those users worked up. He even admits it here [youtube.com]! Rather than giving him the satisfaction of getting you worked up again, why don't you try ignoring him for a change?
    • by MoxFulder (159829) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:01PM (#18532369) Homepage
      And I thought the iPhone was gonna be a flop... but now that John Dvorak says so, I *must* be wrong.

      The man is a giant windbag of nerd conspiracy theories and technical misunderstanding. Why do the slashdot eds. slurp up all of his moonshot predictions?
      • by Viper Daimao (911947) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:57PM (#18533451) Journal

        The man is a giant windbag of nerd conspiracy theories and technical misunderstanding. Why do the slashdot eds. slurp up all of his moonshot predictions?
        See the previous sentence.
      • by Bastard of Subhumani (827601) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:09PM (#18533673) Journal
        I quite like his New World Symphony. On the other hand, I never really got on with his keyboard. Overall, I'd say I'm neutral.
      • by cbreaker (561297) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:24PM (#18533979) Journal
        He's wrong on occasion - but that doesn't mean he's ALWAYS wrong. I happen to agree with him here, although I don't think that it will ruin Apple or anything. I think they will release the iPhone, it will be a big seller for a little while and a status symbol (kinda like the $600 razr phone, which is now $50 or free with a plan.) But, the margins are very slim, the phone is kinda big and fragile in comparison to a flip-phone (big screen, like the PSP.. with a very shiny surface) and expensive as all hell. In the long term, I don't see Apple producing too many phones.

        To top it all off, they aren't really introducing anything new that would be a "even if they fail, at least they brought us ..xyz." Touch screen on a portable phone is novel, but not necessary in any way. The device is still locked down to all hell.

        I wish them luck, and I think they're going to need it.
        • by Ortega-Starfire (930563) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:39PM (#18534283) Journal
          He's wrong on occasion - but that doesn't mean he's ALWAYS wrong.

          Even a broken clock gives the correct time twice a day, right? Dvorak is about as accurate as that.

          Now that Dvorak has condemned it, I shall now buy stock in Apple, for this is now a sure thing.

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by anothy (83176)
            People get this wrong all the time: it entirely depends on the failure mode. Sure, a clock which is broken in the sense of being stopped cold will be right twice a day. But that's not Dvorak. Dvorak's a clock that runs slow, missing, say one minute per year. He's right once every 720 year, not twice a day.

            And this is me being generous. At a casual observation, Dvorak seems to be insightful and informed; that is, mostly a "working" clock. Maybe he runs just fine, but is "broken" in the sense of having a bad
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by cowscows (103644)
          If the iPhone fails and takes Apple down and my powerbook spontaneously turns into dust, hopefully the rest of the cell phone industry will adopt "Random access" voicemail. That is the single most attractive feature I've seen on the iPhone, and hopefully an idea that everyone else will steal.

        • by StarKruzr (74642) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @05:08PM (#18534939) Journal
          I think the iPhone has potential. As a device, it's extremely well-designed. The multitouch interface is certainly something new and could redefine the way people interact with mobile devices. They've clearly put a lot of top-of-the-line hardware into it; the demo Jobs gave of things like Cover Flow on the iTunes portion of it is proof enough of that, and every smartphone -- or product that pretends to be a smartphone, anyway -- should have 802.11 these days.

          As a product, ehhhh. Who are they selling to? Certainly not Joe Consumer -- who has $499 to throw away on a 4GB iPod, even if it also happens to be a cellphone and web browser? For $499, I want a device that matches up to what the iPhone ACTUALLY is -- a handheld OS X device. But no, Apple had to go and lock the machine down and give a bunch of phony excuses for it, when all it really comes down to is "Jobs wants to be emperor of 'his' product." So all of the potential that it had as a handheld OS X machine -- the potential that they actually touted with all of the talk about it "running OS X" and "having Cocoa" -- will go to waste. No GNU tools. No open-source software. Bah.

          OK, maybe we agree more than disagree. :)
          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            by MoxFulder (159829)

            I think the iPhone has potential. As a device, it's extremely well-designed. The multitouch interface is certainly something new and could redefine the way people interact with mobile devices. They've clearly put a lot of top-of-the-line hardware into it; the demo Jobs gave of things like Cover Flow on the iTunes portion of it is proof enough of that, and every smartphone -- or product that pretends to be a smartphone, anyway -- should have 802.11 these days.

            As a product, ehhhh. Who are they selling to? Cer

            • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

              by John Nowak (872479)
              Why do Linksys routers sell so well? Because people change the open source Linux firmware and add all kinds of nifty things to use them as web servers, robotics controllers, home automation, etc.

              No offense, but this just shows how out of touch you (and a lot of other people posting here) actually are. I know dozens of people with Linksys routers in their homes -- All of them are just checking their email.
          • by naasking (94116) <naasking&gmail,com> on Thursday March 29, 2007 @07:24PM (#18537013) Homepage
            As a product, ehhhh. Who are they selling to? Certainly not Joe Consumer -- who has $499 to throw away on a 4GB iPod, even if it also happens to be a cellphone and web browser?

            Please, I know someone who just bought his son an iPod for Christmas: $299 (CAD). Now he's buying him the bigger model plus a speaker set, because he's getting a good deal on it: $599 (CAD). And this is a guy that's owed me $1000 for over a year now.

            I think you underestimate how much people like their accessories, and how poorly they manage their money. All sensible spenders are people, but not all people are sensible spenders.

            Of course, I think the iPhone could very well be a good buy, but I own two cells and a Nokia 770 (and I still have my Sony clie, and a Newton I got off ebay); overall, the iPhone would have saved me money without compromising what I do with my gadgets.
          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            by RogerWilco (99615)
            I bought a Nokia N70 in may last year, it is in a similar price range without plan. Even it's successor the N73, in stores today has nowhere near the functionality of the iPhone. I bought Nokia over Sony or Samsung mainly because I have very poor experiences with usability problems on those two other brands. If the Apply history is anything to go by, it will be even easier to use as the Nokia.
            My current plan for the N70 will run out in early 2008, when the iPhone will be available here in Europe, so I will
        • by podperson (592944) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @06:03PM (#18535855) Homepage
          Even if Dvorak is right about the cellphone market being a bad market for Apple to be in, it would be far worse for Apple to pull the plug on iPhone than to ship it and fail. Anyone can fail with a good product. Only a really boneheaded company will lose nerve after wasting a ton of money on R&D, advertising, and strategic partnerships. Maybe AT&T wants Apple to bug out, but if so I don't think they'd be making press releases about the record number of inquiries they've received for a product they can't sell yet.

          In any event, I think he's wrong on all counts simply because the iPhone doesn't represent a dead end for Apple even if the iPhone product itself fails. Eventually, Apple will want advanced touchscreen products, MacOS X running on very small low-powered systems, cellular internet access, and so forth and so on built into its products. iPhone may not be The Killer Product, but each of the technologies in it is core to Apple and important in the long term.

          Strategically, the iPhone represents:
          • A touchscreen Mac
          • The unification of OSX and iPod
          • A solid-state ultraportable Mac OS X device
          • Apple's re-entry into the digital camera market (which it helped create)*
          • Oh and a really nice phone. A phone so nice most hardened Blackberry users drool when it's mentioned.


          * Gee doesn't shipping the first consumer digital cameras count as a new product Mr. Dvorak?
          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            by cbreaker (561297)
            Counterpoints:

            - A touchscreen mac. A Macintosh actually runs free/paid for apps you can download from the Internet. The iPhone will only have limited software available via "approved" (and paid for) apple online cell phone store. Expect to pay for each and every little utility, app, or game on that phone.
            - Again, it's not a Mac, and it's only a 4G iPod.
            - I could be running Windows, for all it matters. It's locked down. You can't put your own software on it. Ever.
            - Camera function is a "me too" functio
        • But, the margins are very slim, the phone is kinda big and fragile in comparison to a flip-phone (big screen, like the PSP.. with a very shiny surface) and expensive as all hell.

          The thing is that was overlooked is that thin margins are exactly what make the phone industry vulnerable. They have all been competing on no margin forever squeezing device functionality to come cheap as possible.

          Now here comes Apple, who knows margins very well - and prefers large ones thank you very much. So they reject the who
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by MMC Monster (602931)
          The hardware on the iPhone may become a commodity. The place where Apple has the rest beat is on software. I barely use my Motorola razr. I will pay good money, however, for a phone that actually works. By that, I mean an address book that actually works, no crashing of the phone, easy call waiting and merging, and easy net access. The mp3 playing is something that I probably won't use much, tell you the truth.

          I don't ask for much. Just as I don't ask for a lot from my portable music player. Which is
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Mr. Flibble (12943)

          I wish them luck, and I think they're going to need it.

          I doubt that. I don't think that the iPhone is a Newton. New revisions of the iPhone will certainly come out, and I expect to see one with a 60 GB hard drive sometime in the near future. Currently, it competes with a nano in terms of storage, and any other cell phone around for ease of use.

          It DOES bring new stuff to the table. It has the ipod brand for one, second, it changes how the phone itself works to make it easy. Finally, it, like the razr and the

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by naasking (94116)
          To top it all off, they aren't really introducing anything new that would be a "even if they fail, at least they brought us ..xyz." Touch screen on a portable phone is novel, but not necessary in any way.

          The interface is novel as all hell. Have you seen it in operation? Compared to ordinary cell phones, it's the Second Coming. In particular, the browser experience is quite novel. I have a Nokia 770, and while browsing is adequate, the zoom in/out features are definitely not as good as the iPhone. Before I s
    • by astrosmash (3561) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:03PM (#18532395) Journal
      Who else would post a Dvorak troll to the front page? What a waste.
    • by $RANDOMLUSER (804576) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:03PM (#18532407)
      Ask not for whom he trolls, he trolls for thee.
    • by skeevy (926052) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:03PM (#18532417)
      Unless Slashot is adopting the Dvorak page-hit-generation-model by posting intentionally inflammatory references to intentionally inflammatory articles.
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Alzheimers (467217)
      Obviously the guy's a moron -- I mean, no one I know of even uses his bass-ackwards keyboard layouts!
    • by iPaul (559200) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:24PM (#18532829) Homepage
      Before commenting I always read the story or stories indicated. However, in this case I realized my mistake as soon as I clicked the link. I gave that bofoon one more hit to drive his hit count up. Maybe I'll start posting articles on my blog like:

      Microsoft - Should get out of the operating systems business and start a chain of chicken finger restaurants.
      Oracle - Relational databases are just a fad, they should diversify into concrete.
      Apple - Should just liquidate the company and payout the sharholders (oops - Michael Dell beat me to that one).
      Hooters - Is there a Hooters O/S in the works? It should be built on BSD with a Linux Kernel, .NET GUI and Open GL based file-system.
      Linux - Who would ever use a non-Unix Unix clone? It'll never make it in the server market. Trovalds should build an aquarium.
      Google - Who needs search? I already have everything worth reading bookmarked.
      Gartner - They're always soo right about the future, they should publish lottery numbers.
      Amazon - No one will ever get that Amazon sells books, they should sell snakes, large bugs and other things found in the actual Amazon.
      NASA - Should use string cheese to build the world's first space elevator.
      Doctors - From now on they should only operate on the healthy, where survival is much more likely.
      Viagra - Should exclusively market itself on the Internet using spam.

      and finally!!!

      Slashdot - Nerds don't care about news. I bet they don't get any postings or hits.

      This way I can drive my advertising revenue up and get quoted a lot, even if I'm bizarrly and outrageously mistaken.
    • by Aqua OS X (458522) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:17PM (#18533821)
      I bring this up every time someone posts some Dvorak drivel, that said...

      Why does Slashdot actually post an article that is classified to the "wave-off-wave-off" department? We all know people are going to think Dvorak is ridiculous flame bate, and we all know most of us aren't going to bother reading his garbage. What's the point of rewarding Dvorak with web traffic from Slashdot?

      Dvorak's predictions about the tech industry, and especially Apple, are about as accurate as Dick Cheney's predictions about the war in Iraq.

      Write a Dvorak filter, put a post-it note on your monitor, do something. By linking to his work you're indirectly paying him to be a tool.

      Christ, if you're going to post John Dvorak articles, you might as well start posting V1AgRA spam that you get in your email.
  • 3G (Score:3, Interesting)

    by omeomi (675045) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:55PM (#18532219) Homepage
    I think the biggest stumbling block for the iPhone is going to be the fact that it's not a 3G phone at a time when the trend is going toward 3G phones. Cingular is even giving 3G phones away free, now...
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by notthe9 (800486)
      There isn't currently much network architecture in the US for 3G services. I don't think Apple is opposed to selling a 3G phone when the architecture is in place.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by toriver (11308)
      3G hasn't met with much success outside of Asia yet - I can understand Apple not adding it to the American phone in June, but it's too ealry to tell what they will do with the European release later. For me, GPS and WiFi is more important anyway.
    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by PipOC (886408)
      I don't see this as a huge problem, 3G deployment isn't widespread at this point, and EDGE still delivers ~200 Kbit data rates, which is nothing to scoff at for a mobile device, and perfectly suitable for web browsing and the like, but it still gives you wi-fi if you need higher throughput for some reason. Hell we don't even know if the browser supports flash, which if omitted nullifies a signifcant portion of available video content. And you should also note that it isn't a tether-modem so one of the majo
    • I want the iPhone to be just a PDA. For me, they can drop the phone-function, leaving the rest. That would be a great device! They could call it the iTon (well, it's not "new" anymore).
    • by EmbeddedJanitor (597831) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:13PM (#18532623)
      The ipod is a very successful product. Part of that comes down to not so much what features it has, but what was left out.

      "Just pack it full of features" is a very easy and lazy way to define products. Add too much detail and you gunk up the UI. It is way harder and more important to figure out what to leave out to make it easier to use and "cleaner" for the target user base. There are huge numbers of features that could have been added to ipod, but some of its appeal comes from relative simplicity.

      iPhone does not need huge numbers of features to be successful. So long as it does the functions that the target audience expects, it should do well.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by frdmfghtr (603968)

        The ipod is a very successful product. Part of that comes down to not so much what features it has, but what was left out.

        "Just pack it full of features" is a very easy and lazy way to define products. Add too much detail and you gunk up the UI. It is way harder and more important to figure out what to leave out to make it easier to use and "cleaner" for the target user base. There are huge numbers of features that could have been added to ipod, but some of its appeal comes from relative simplicity.

        iPhone

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by sootman (158191)
      Sorry, this thread is for bashing Dvorak and Zonk. Any actual insightful comments should be reserved for a later article on the iPhone. The next iPhone story--possibly from a more benign source, like CNet--should be up shortly. Check back in about two hours.
  • Oh good... (Score:4, Funny)

    by rolfwind (528248) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:56PM (#18532237)
    I wasn't sure how the iPhone would fare, but now that Dvorak is against it - I can rest assured it will be a success.
    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Just like his keyboard.
    • I second that sentiment. I'm not a mac-fanboy (well, I guess I play one on /. from time to time) -- I'm just constantly amazed at how Dvorak can be so wrong and yet so... noticed.
    • by irn_bru (209849)
      All we need now is for Taco to call it lame and it's time to start buying up those stocks and shares with abandon.
      • All we need now is for Taco to call it lame and it's time to start buying up those stocks and shares with abandon.

        It does have wireless though.
  • by CrazyJim1 (809850) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:56PM (#18532241) Journal
    The phone has GPS. The GPS continually updates every minute and stores in cache on phone. Every so many hours, its uploaded to your home account so you can review where you were the days before. It also has a 1 touch blog. You can then record voice/text/pictures/video to your site and it will be formatted nicely. You can let family members or friends view this website. It would be a living diary for you, and would take no effort. Just 1 button and all the complex web work is done automatically. Hey and if someone wants to implement this, maybe you can hire me :)
  • OMG! (Score:5, Funny)

    by Flounder (42112) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:57PM (#18532257)
    Apple should totally listen to Dvorak! He's brilliant and always spot on and always knows what's right for Apple...

    Oh, wait. JOHN Dvorak? Nevermind.

  • by freerangegeek (451133) * on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:57PM (#18532259)
    1) Say something braindead and contrarian about Apple
    2) Get it posted on slashdot to flame contreversy
    3) Get eyeballs on published work
    4) Profit

  • by Trails (629752) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:57PM (#18532271)

    Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering,
    Yeah, just like they did with the iPod. You know. They released the iPod, and then that was it and they never did anything else, or came out with new models. There's still only the one type of iPod you can buy and that's it. I live in Azerbeijan.
  • by JoeWalsh (32530) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:57PM (#18532285)
    Without John, how would I know what's not going to happen in the future?
  • Vacation (Score:3, Insightful)

    by mccoma (64578) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:58PM (#18532287)
    Dvorak must need to bump up his pages hits to have money to go on vacation
  • by Dasher42 (514179) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @02:59PM (#18532317)
    Also consider dropping OSX. We're all using OS/2 now.
  • by Mr.Progressive (812475) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:02PM (#18532373)

    Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail.



    Good thing Apple is already working hard [theonion.com] to make sure the iPhone is laughably obsolete upon release.

  • by bgfay (5362) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:02PM (#18532383) Homepage
    Namely nine out of every ten Apple devotees who love their Macs and have loved them for years.

    Oh, and probably 3 out of ten iPod owners who think it would be cool to have their iPod and phone all in one.

    And then there are the people who just have to have latest gadget.

    Let's see, that adds up to...Dvorak being wrong again and again and again.

    I'm not a Mac devotee, but even I can see that the iPhone has "cool" written all over it. People love having the hot new thing. The Razr is one example in the phone industry. The Prius is another in the auto industry. Hell, I even want an iPhone and I'm still using a cell-phone about the size of a brick. I think it was invented in 1983. I already own an iPod, but I want the iPhone too.

    Remember, Dvorak prefers incendiary commentary over researched ideas.
    • Not sure that that's a good example.

      Sure, everyone had to have one, myself included, but I have yet to meet a person that's owned one for any length of time and actually liked it.

      The RAZRs were riddled with OS problems, bad voice quality, permanent dust under the screen, etc.

      They were cool looking though.

      As for me wanting an iPhone? I don't think so. I still prefer to have real buttons to press. It'll be interesting to see if Apple can sway enough people to prefer a total touch-screen experience

    • by Isao (153092)
      People love having the hot new thing. The Razr is one example in the phone industry.

      Wow, talk about the exception proving the rule. You do know that Motorola is getting its lunch-money stolen right now, right? That it's totally failed to produce a follow-up phone near the success of the Razr? That it's losing market share and will likely declare a Q2 loss? That Carl Ichan appears to be accumulating a stake (not always a good thing for the takeover target)?

      I agree that the iPhone will be a hot commodi

  • by truthsearch (249536) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:05PM (#18532441) Homepage Journal
    Obviously every other comment is calling Dvorak an idiot. But I'd like to point out what specifically makes him wrong in this case. Apple has the rare ability to define a market. The mp3 player market, while small, existed before Apple's entry. Now many people call it "the iPod market". Apple basically defined the personal computer and helped spawn the market.

    Apple has the brand recognition and design abilities to redefine the mobile phone market. Dvorak's assumption is that nothing every changes. But he forgets that Apple often seems to know what people want before they even know they want it.
    • by king-manic (409855) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:16PM (#18532677)
      The two markets you mentioned (non CD based music players and personal computers) were both infant niche markets when Apple stepped in. I doubt they will fall on their faces but the cell market is a fairly mature industry. Time will tell. I for one will not be getting one asmy Motorola Q has 70% of the functionaity and I can't justify dropping $600+ to bridge the gap.
      • by larkost (79011) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:25PM (#18534009)
        The thing that the article ignores is that Apple is not entering in the generic cell phone market, they are entering into the smartphone market (or the newly defined "feature phone" market). And as a owner of a Palm-based phone and someone who has used the WindowsMobile phones, I can tell you that that market is still in its infancy. The vendors have no idea how to make a good product right now, and the bar for entry into the market is can you do it at all, not how well. I really hope that Apple can change that and raise the bar so that it will be how good a product you can make.
  • by coolgeek (140561) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:05PM (#18532449) Homepage
    Article by John Dvorak
    (-99,000) Troll
  • by Wuhao (471511) * on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:07PM (#18532491)
    It's a good thing Dvorak is an intelligent, experienced businessman who has himself run a highly successful, multi-billion dollar company similar to Apple, and not just some blabbering wash-up with a column.
  • by jhfry (829244) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:08PM (#18532515)
    Apple has never been afraid to enter a competitive market... in fact I think they purposely identify markets where innovation seems to have slowed and bring a product that shows the competition where they failed.

    I am confident that the iPhone will be a success. Apple has been VERY good at seeing it's niche and developing the ideal product to fill that void. Once they have filled the niche, they are even better at attracting users who don't NEED the product by showing them a clean, functional, and enjoyable user experience that isn't offered by the competitors.

    I am slowly becoming an Apple fanboy, and I hate to admit that. But when I compare their competitors products, I can rarely find a single one that so thoroughly meets it's customers expectations. Sure there are better music players than the iPod, better computers than the Mac, better STB's than the AppleTV, better media management apps than iTunes, and so on... but find one company that produces these products in such a way that they work as well together.

    My family has recently become a Mac family, and I will get and iPhone for my wife and I because my experiences with other smart phones have all been mediocre at best, and I imagine that the iPhone will "just work" with my Mac. I could make anything work, given enough time, but the griping my wife will do when it doesn't "just work" isn't worth the cost savings. So I'll happily over pay for the iPhone.
  • Powerful advice (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Random BedHead Ed (602081) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:08PM (#18532523) Homepage Journal
    Wow, that's powerful advice. Apple is going to jump on this, and fast. I'm pressing refresh on Slashdot so I can be the first to read the next TFA linking to the Apple press release. I can see it now: Despite much work on our iPhone during the past five years, including Mac OS re-engineering and hardware design efforts, and despite notable interest on the part of the public, and despite our investments in marketing the product, and in licensing the iPhone's innovative multi-touch interface, and despite and our legally binding exclusive contract with AT&T Wireless, not to mention our legal agreements with Cisco, and despite ... oh why go on? Suffice to say we're canning it.
    • by jhfry (829244)

      Suffice to say we're canning it
      because JD told us too.
      • by jhfry (829244)
        Damn I hate the submit button... that should be

        "because JD told us to."

        Just had to correct that before a grammar Nazi put me in a "concentration" camp for my lack of focus during proof reading.
  • by joto (134244) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:10PM (#18532575)

    I can't understand why Apple haven't hired him yet. I mean, does there exist anyone that can beat his predictions, except perhaps Nostradamus?

    Had the major companies listened to everything Dvorak says, they would have been rich by now!

  • by zerofoo (262795) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:15PM (#18532649)
    The cell phone market is filled with phones that are difficult to use, unstable, and generally crap.

    I have a Motorola Q and it SUCKS. Sure, it hooks up to exchange, and it is nice and small, but battery life sucks, voice recognition sucks, and it crashes more than Eddie Griffin driving an Enzo.

    I can't tell you how many times I've looked at phone interfaces from LG, Samsung, Motorola and Nokia and thought the designers were all on crack.

    Apple NEEDS to show the world how to make a phone. God help us if they don't.

    -ted
    • by prelelat (201821)
      Even if apple does release a phone with an amazing interface, it will be 2 weeks before the other cellular companies steal the idea and put it on their own phones. Not like its hard to modify a gui. It does have features that other phones don't currently have namely its an ipod. But will most people throw down 600 dollars for a phone on top of a contract? Especially when LG or Motorola just copied their interface.

      Apple is not going to fail thats not what I'm saying. I just think its too early to say if t
    • I've got a Motorola v3 razr and in many ways, it's quite worse than my first cell phone, those humble, old-school Nokias. See, on the Nokia, there was a number-number-number combination for every operation. Using it was fast, simple, intuitive. With these new phones, you have to manually scroll through menus, wait for the display to catch up with your input, etc. It's a royal pain.

      And I don't see any reason you can't have the features that marketing loves (camera, streaming video, whatever crap they want to
  • He fails to recognize it doesn't matter what Apple does, it has a fan base that will buy anything it produces, whether it works or not. I guarantee you it will express exactly who you are, and that's what matters!
    • As opposed to?? (Score:4, Insightful)

      by King_TJ (85913) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:57PM (#18533447) Journal
      I won't even try to argue that Apple *doesn't* have a percentage of customers who will "buy anything they build". Of course they do. But show me ONE successful company who doesn't! As both a Mac and a PC user myself, I find this accusation really tiresome. I know people who will only buy Ford cars and trucks, refusing to even look at what else is out there. I know people who have all Maytag branded appliances, again, just because of their belief that the company can "do no wrong" compared to the competition.

      I think, in reality, *most* people you see who own multiple Apple products do so because they were impressed with the first one, and saw the benefits of owning hardware that inter-operates well. (The "bonjour" sharing capabilities of OS X on a LAN can't be fully realized if you only own one OS X based Mac, for example.)

      And in fact, Mac fans seem to be quite preoccupied with building and arguing over lists of the "top 10" or "top 20" worst Apple products of all time. Even the biggest Mac zealots will usually admit that Apple's Performa 6x00 line in the 90's was garbage, for example.
  • Phones vs IPods (Score:3, Interesting)

    by rueger (210566) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:20PM (#18532759) Homepage
    Apple may have lucked out with the iPod - let's face it, any new product launch is a gamble, especially into a product for which you have no previous background.

    I have to think though that trying to break into the already pretty mature cel phone market is an entirely different thing.

    The market for iPods was largely wide open - most people who bought were moving over from CD or cassette players, and represented a pretty much untapped population.

    The iPhone though will have to convince existing cel phone owners to change hardware, and in some case change service providers. That's a much tougher sell, especially when you're charging up front for a phone when most providers offer a phone for "free."

    If I were marketing this thing I'd sell it as an upgrade for existing iPod owners, a newer better iPod that just happens to also include a phone.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by shoptroll (544006)
      Except for the fact that the hard drive capacity is a lot less than the standard iPods.

      Yes it looks sleek. I can justify merging two devices and making something just as functional as the two of them already. But, can I justify $600 for a phone and smaller drive iPod? Seeing how I can get the basic cell phone for free, and a larger iPod for $300...

      The iPhone is a nice solution, but I don't know how many people are willing to pay for it.

      I really want to say after watching the PS3 crash and burn at $600, I
  • Shut up... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by 7Prime (871679) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:21PM (#18532781) Homepage Journal
    Ya know, like how the iPod was going to destroy the prestine image of Apple back in 2001? What a fucking idiot this guy always seems to be. Sure the iPhone isn't going to break any records out of the gate, but its something to grow on. It's the way things have to work: the first adopters are always going to be techies, who want the most features possible... this subsidizes the marketing of lower-end models which target the mainstream consumer. It's a good business strategy when trying to bring out a new type of gadget.

    The Zune failed because it tried to copy something that was already on the market, but started with the high end. The opposite would have been better, here, they should have started with really low-end models and worked their way up, because Microsoft wasn't really aiming to establish a new kind of device. The iPhone, on the other hand, is really pushing to try and bring a fairly unique kind of device into the mainstream market place, so they have to start at the top.

    There's a reason Dvorak never gets hired for consulting work, he has no idea what goes into a good business strategy. I don't know why we even post his fluff on here any more. I say slashdot just ignore him from now on, and he'll eventually go away.
  • I'll give him this (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Jaeph (710098) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:22PM (#18532799)
    Having read the article (omg, ban him from slashdot!), I will give Dvorak this: the cell phone market is nothing like the mp3 market that Apple helped to create. The situations are very different, so you can't expect a success like the ipod. Of course, you almost never get successes like the ipod in business, so that really isn't saying much.

    -Jeff

    P.S. The rest of what he said regarding fashion, etc, I have no idea. Personally I think price tag, batteries, memory, calling plan, and the 3G aspect will tell the tale more than fashion. So JD and I may come to the same conclusion, but from completely different logic chains.

    • by iPaul (559200)
      I don't know about that, but fashion is a pretty powerful motivator. There is a good chunk of research to support the notion that people make their decisions and then find justifications for the decision. People spend much more money on purchases like automobiles, granite kitchen counters, and stainless steel appliances than they will on phones, based largely on fashion.
  • by Bullfish (858648) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @03:29PM (#18532897)
    He did say one truth which is that the cell phone business is a buzz saw. It is unknown at this time whether "Apple cool" will be enough. There are a lot of players in the market already, and some very good players that know the market. Apple managed to beat the odds with the iPod, whether or not it will with the iPhone remains a big maybe. The other truth he touched on is that people who follow "cool" are notoriously fickle.
  • Who cares what Dvorak says? What reason is there to listen to him? He isn't even the guy after whom the interesting keyboard [wikipedia.org], the obscure cryptography based on it, or anything else.

    He's been totally wrong about Apple [wikipedia.org] all the time, including such fundamentals of whether people would use a "mouse".

    Enough of this clown. Steve Jobs should just take him behind the woodshed and spank him down once and for all.
  • mobile phone rant (Score:4, Interesting)

    by roman_mir (125474) on Thursday March 29, 2007 @04:37PM (#18534237) Homepage Journal
    man I hate the modern mobile phones.

    I would like to have a phone with large buttons, these can be either raised or sunken buttons, but I want to feel them, I want tactile response, a 'click' sort of feeling. I want to be able to push them without looking, so I want a large enough phone to put these large enough buttons. I want the phone to be made of metal, something that needs a screwdriver to be taken appart, I want it to be waterproof. Better yet it should be able to float, but that's asking too much for something made of metal. In any case I want to be able to drop the f.cking thing into a bucket full of soap water, pull it out after 3 hours and still be able to use it without any problems. I want this phone to have a nice screw on clip, which won't break off. I want this phone to have a power socket, that doesn't break after 3 weeks of use. Not like those f.cking Motorolla power sockets that are completely useless garbage. I want a power socket that can be closed (waterproof, remember?) and the kind that doesn't break even if the power cord is shoved in sideways (well, if there is an attempt, anyway.) I want the battery to last for a month (too much to ask,) ok, if it lasts for 5 days without recharging that would already be a miracle. I want the reception on this phone to be exceptional. I don't want this phone to do anything fancy. I don't want a camera or an mp3 player. However an AM radio would be awesomely appreciated. Not the useless FM radio, but the useful AM, that's where all the best talk shows are in Toronto. I don't want any musical cacophony as a ring tone, I don't care, but a single purpose rotary volume control would be freaking awesome, with a single purpose VERY HARD TO PUSH, BUT A LARGE button to switch from Loud to Soft to Vibrate and back.

    I do not mind paying up to $300 for a phone like that. If it has an AM radio, 350. If it has a built in GPS receiver then 500.

    No cameras, no mp3s, no fancy programming except for very basic features. I want a freaking phone that works and cannot be easily destroyed. It has to be a quad band so I can take it with me anywhere, and it has to have a detachable SIM card (f.ck you, Telus.)

    I can't get anything like this, I may just build my own.

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