Morgan Stanley Cuts iPhone Shipment Forecast on Siri Upgrade Delay, China Tariffs

Morgan Stanley has reduced its iPhone shipment forecasts after Apple confirmed the delay of a more advanced Siri personal assistant, dampening prospects for accelerating phone upgrades. The investment bank now predicts 230 million iPhone shipments in 2025 (flat year-over-year) and 243 million in 2026 (up 6%), down from previous estimates.

An upgraded Siri was the most sought-after Apple Intelligence feature among prospective buyers, according to the bank's survey data. "Access to Advanced AI Features" appeared as a top-five driver of smartphone upgrades for the first time, with about 50% of iPhone owners who didn't upgrade to iPhone 16 citing the delayed Apple Intelligence rollout as affecting their decision. The firm also incorporated headwinds from China tariffs in its assessment, noting Apple is unlikely to fully offset these costs without broader exemptions.

Re:

[UnknowingFool]

I do not know of anyone who does. But banks and investors who are invested in AI probably want it. After all, more AI means Apple and other companies must purchase cloud hardware and software for AI.

Re:

[nightflameauto]

people actually want that shit?

This was gonna be my question. Is AI a driver of a big enough portion of people to actually impact potential sales, or is Morgan Stanley doing their polling through some specific group that just happens to be tapped into the AI Prophet bullshit stream so thoroughly that they believe current-gen AI is the game changer we keep hearing it's going to be?

Frankly, I don't "upgrade" phones until I break my old one anymore. Granted, I'm clumsy as shit, so need a new one about every three to four years when the old

Re:

[larryjoe]

Is AI a driver of a big enough portion of people to actually impact potential sales

AI will drive sales just like better memory chips. No one cares, or at least cares directly. The only thing that matters is use cases. If AI can enable new use cases that users care about, then it will drive sales. However, so far, the suggested use cases are "nice" but not enticing. However, Apple is Apple. Some people will buy Apple Intelligence simply because of the logo.

and Tesla?

[methano]

Morgan Stanley has a price target on Tesla north of $400. So take what they say with a grain of salt.

Re:

[larryjoe]

Morgan Stanley has a price target on Tesla north of $400. So take what they say with a grain of salt.

The price target is a one-year target, and the stock market can be completely disconnected from fundamentals in that short term.

Elon has been selling his "soon to be here" autonomous driving for almost ten years, and there have been believers, even on Wall Street, for those ten years. The EV business is losing market share in a somewhat growing market, so the price target is almost entirely based on autonomous driving. Elon is a great salesperson. People are willing to pay thousands of dollars for ADAS+,

Damping, not dampening

[TheMiddleRoad]

I know tech makes you wet, but...

I guess I'm in the other 50%

[sabbede]

As I don't care about AI on my phone and only upgrade phones when they break. Something I like to call, "reasonable".

Misleading statistics - Phone == commodity device

[will4]

The longer people have cell phones, the more models you use, the more it becomes a commodity device and not a status symbol or toy.

Excluding attention seekers needing some cool product to talk about