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China Iphone Apple

Kuo: iPhone Shipments Could Decline Up To 30% If Apple Forced To Remove WeChat From Worldwide App Store (macrumors.com) 80

Posted by msmash from the how-about-that dept.
An anonymous reader shares a report: In a worst-case scenario, Apple's annual iPhone shipments could decline by 25-30% if it is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world, according to a new research note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo viewed by MacRumors. The removal could occur due to a recent executive order aiming to ban U.S. transactions with WeChat and its parent company Tencent. Kuo lays out optimistic and pessimistic scenarios depending on whether Apple is only required to remove WeChat from the App Store in the United States or if the ban would apply to the App Store in all countries. WeChat is extremely popular with Chinese mobile device users, essentially operating as its own platform on top of iOS and Android for many users, and Kuo argues that a worldwide ban on WeChat in the App Store would be devastating due to the size of the Chinese market.

"Because WeChat has become a daily necessity in China, integrating functions such as messaging, payment, e-commerce, social networking, news reading, and productivity, if this is the case, we believe that Apple's hardware product shipments in the Chinese market will decline significantly. We estimate that the annual iPhone shipments will be revised down by 25-30%, and the annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices, including AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch and Mac, will be revised down by 15-25%," he wrote in a note. Under his optimistic scenario in which WeChat is only removed from the U.S. App Store, Kuo predicts iPhone shipments would be impacted by 3-6% with other Apple products being affected by less than 3%.
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Kuo: iPhone Shipments Could Decline Up To 30% If Apple Forced To Remove WeChat From Worldwide App Store More

Kuo: iPhone Shipments Could Decline Up To 30% If Apple Forced To Remove WeChat From Worldwide App Store

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  • Can't congress countermand an executive order with legislation?

    • Can't congress countermand an executive order with legislation?

      It could but the second (orange) coming of god would smite them in the Republican primaries.

      • Besides, legislating is risky. You might alienate a voter.

        Better to just authorize an agency to create regulations. Might have to create the agency, too, but that's no problem. That way, you've got deniability if the regulation isn't liked, or there are unfortunate consequences.

        Better still, if the agency screws up (or does its job as directed by Congress, it doesn't matter which) and angers a constituent, the congresscritter gets to be a hero and fix the problem. The problem caused by the agency the

    • Re:Countermand? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by smooth wombat ( 796938 ) on Monday August 10, 2020 @01:12PM (#60386125) Journal
      Can't congress countermand an executive order with legislation?

      According to Republicans, executive orders are both illegal and unconstitutional and a president using them is acting like an emperor [nbcnews.com]. They even questioned the use of executive orders to rewrite a law [foxnews.com]. The con artist himself said executive orders were nothing more than a power grab [latimes.com].

      Why is @BarackObama constantly issuing executive orders that are major power grabs of authority? This is the latest http://t.co/4IVBckTE [t.co]â" Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 10, 2012

      So based on what Republicans say, Apple can ignore whatever the orange clown does via executive order since it's not law and has no force.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Could be interesting if the Chinese government countermanded it. "Make WeChat available world wide or pay compensation to every Chinese consumer and Tencent."

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by schwit1 ( 797399 )

      Yes, if they can get a veto proof majority(2/3s). They won't get that in either House or Senate.

    • Like facebook, Wechat is a walled garden. Just the fact that you need an app to use it's many services shows you it's not web orietned. Like face book. It breaks linking. It forces all coupling to occur through their define API not simple web protocols.

      Then there's apple which is a hardware walled garden. the place these meet in the App store.

      Now I personally, see the hardware and operating system walled garden as the layer I actually want, and I see the application level walled garden as the one I don'

      • Apple does make what is perhaps the most important flagship app of all, the web browser. Unlike computer platforms and Android, there is no real choice on iOS or iPadOS; the supposedly alternative browsers are just reskins of an old version of Safari. Apple mandates that all browsers use the Javascript and HTML rendering engines that are built into the OS, which are derived from the ones used by Safari and lag behind the ones in that browser most of the time.

    • Can't congress countermand an executive order with legislation?

      It depends. In this case, probably yes, but not in every case.

      For instance, if a President issues an executive order using authority granted his office by the Constitution, Congress can't countermand it. Absent a constitutional amendment, they would lack the authority to deny the President the ability to exercise his constitutionally-granted powers.

      On the other hand, most executive orders are based on the control the President has as head of the Executive Branch over the day-to-day operations of various rul

      • There's nothing stopping Congress from passing a law that disbands Congressionally-created agencies, removes or restricts their authority to enact the rule in question, shifts their day-to-day control from the Executive Branch to a legislative subcommittee, or orders them to NOT follow that executive order.

        Congress cannot place day-to-day control in a legislative subcommittee. That would violate the separation of powers.

        • Congress cannot place day-to-day control in a legislative subcommittee. That would violate the separation of powers.

          How so? The power was theirs to begin with. The only reason any of it lies with the Executive in the first place is because Congress chose to put it there.

          To be clear, I'm not disagreeing with what you said; I'd just like more information. I'm not seeing why this would be a separation of powers issue, but I am very aware that I could be mistaken.

          • Replying to myself quickly to make it clear that I was NOT suggesting the legislative branch could move enforcement authority under itself, though I can see how my original post might seem to suggest that, and I apologize for the ambiguity. I was suggesting they could move rule-making authority to a subcommittee.

            • Congress passes laws, and may permit the executive branch to create rules, which are limited by the laws. Congress may not give itself rule-making powers. That may seem like a silly distinction, since there is no clear line between laws and rules, but it is important. When Congress passes a law it must go through both houses, and the President must sign it (or both houses must override the President's veto by a 2/3 majority). A rule goes through a very different process involving public hearings but not

  • Yes WeChat is very popular... but it's not impossible to think that there's some amount of those 30% that could live without it, rather than stop using iPhones.

    It's not like there are not other contenders for chat use, or new ones could not be developed...

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by nnet ( 20306 )
      You're Chinese and have a reliance on wechat? Or were you implying americans?

      • You're Chinese and have a reliance on wechat? Or were you implying americans?

        I'm talking specifically about the Chinese, I don't think many Americans have a heavy dependance on WeChat.

        As I said, even though WeChat is very popular, I am sure there are some percentage of people that would not be willing to stop using iPhones if the app went away... remember there is also a WeChat web interface [google.com] so it's not like they would be cut out altogether.

        That said, I think it likely Apple would only be stopped from usin

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by sycodon ( 149926 )

      Funny how people that have constantly complained bitterly about Spyware are complaining about spyware from a foreign nation being banned.

      As for Apple losing 30%...

      First, it's a worst case scenario. You know, the ones they use when they don't otherwise have a story with shit.

      Second, Apple probably should have thought twice about embedding itself so deeply into a market and making it such an important part of its revenue mix when that market is essentially controlled by a Communist Government. That market cou

      • Funny how people that have constantly complained bitterly about Spyware are complaining about spyware from a foreign nation being banned.

        Probably they are thinking if you are going to have bans you should ban US and Chinese spyware equally.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by sycodon ( 149926 )

          How many times have we heard the argument that you can't wait until you can do it all before trying to do some?

          • How many times have we heard the argument that you can't wait until you can do it all before trying to do some?

            Sure. Don't think it is not obvious when your agenda is unrelated to the ostensible problem though. Only the most witless are fooled.

  • At this point, what's stopping China from doing their own "WeChat phone"? They already have their closed internet, they already manufacture other smartphones, it wouldn't take much for them to make their own WeChat-only smartphones and limit sales to China.

    • Why would they limit sales to China? They would specifically want sales as broad as possible. If some country doesn't let them in, that is on that country. But China wouldn't restrict it on their side. They would want as much penetration into the world wide market as possible. Both for financial reasons and for intel gathering reasons.

    • You mean Android?

  • OMG why on earth do fools constantly listen to that Ming -Chi Kuo idiot when he has an unblemished record of being consistently wrong for 15 years now? People will just not use WeChat. People rather have an iPhone than WeChat! There is literally nobody who will consider lack of WeChat as a reason not to buy an iPhone. Thatâ(TM)s a FACT!

  • The courts will decide if the President can block an app globally.

    India will be blocking it? I would expect a lot of nations to follow suit with the US.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday August 10, 2020 @01:40PM (#60386241)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  • So if china is full of people working for $10/day, exactly where is the loss of revenue if chinese people arent buying on apple devices? Everyone keeps talking about this chinese market, but if they are paying pennies on the dollar for the same shit where is the profits? Either the iphone would feel like it costs $6k to them, or apple is selling the damn thing for $200 when its $1200 here.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by e3m4n ( 947977 )

        if they do then the narrative that everyone there works for pennies on the dollar cannot be. its a mutually exclusive fact. If an iphone cost $1200US (in whatever local currency) no matter where in the world it is sold, then for someone to afford it, I would assume they have at least $600/yr in luxury disposable income. By contrast, ive seen other places that work for penies on the dollar ... like cocoa farmers in africa, who have never actually eaten a chocolate bar because the cost of one is more than the

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by e3m4n ( 947977 )

            well thats a good point. but china has already threatened to make their own andriod phone and only allow it to be used there, i assume so they can spy on everyone all the time. I cant see how this is a valid threat if china is already going to do this anyway. Its like threatening to ban volkswagen, when you have already outlined plans and have begun the process to ban every car that isnt SAIC Motor car anyway. either they are bluffing or they intend to do it, and as much of a control freak they are, I doubt

    • China has a massive middle class and even a healthy number of millionaires and billionaires. They are a population of 1.4 billion, even if a billion of them only earn $10 a day that still leaves 400 million with health incomes.
  • Why would Apple remove it world wide? They would only need to remove it in the US, which is only the whole world in the eyes of an American.

  • If Apple is required to stop doing business with business with ties to mainland China, it will run out of products to ship.

  • Right, and further, the focus should be allowing Whatsapp / LINE / facebook / Google / Telegram / Twitter and and other apps to operate freely in China too

  • If you provide an exemption for the Chinese market, you solve the issue, and really you can't argue Apple is damaging the privacy of Chinese citizens because the Chinese government already does that. And it keeps the American/Chinese money flow going.

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