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Americans Are Waiting Three Years To Replace Their Phones, Study Finds (engadget.com) 149

Posted by msmash from the how-about-that dept.
A new study released by Strategy Analytics reflects the current state of the smartphone industry. Apparently, consumers in the US -- Baby Boomers, in particular -- are increasingly delaying their smartphone purchase for three or more years. From a report: In addition, the average iPhone now remains active for 18 months, while the average Samsung phone remains active for 16.5. The era of yearly phone upgrades is over. Smartphone shipments have been dropping around the world over the past year, and some analysts even believe the industry is bound to suffer its worst decline ever in the coming months. Strategy Analytics conducted an online survey with 2,500 smartphone owners aged 18 to 64 years old in the US. Company SVP David Kerr explained that there are several reasons behind consumers' decision not upgrade as quickly as they did in the past. To start with, buyers perceive newer phones' offerings as marginal upgrades not worth getting a new device for.
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Americans Are Waiting Three Years To Replace Their Phones, Study Finds More

Americans Are Waiting Three Years To Replace Their Phones, Study Finds

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  • Good ... should be 4-5 years. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:34PM (#59116934)
    Mandate user-replaceable batteries and charging ports in phones. They can still be waterproof -- put the battery behind a screwed-on panel sealed with a sillycone gasket. Long-term use is the best form of recycling -- if you're using it, you're not burning energy making a new device, recycling the old one, and making e-waste out of what can't (won't) be recycled.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by hey! ( 33014 )

      A bezel-less phone that's less than 8mm thick is almost bound to be glued together.

      Anyhow, IP68 phone ratings are a crock. That just certifies water won't get at the circuit board and battery. You aren't supposed to get the USB port wet.

      • Re:Good ... should be 4-5 years. (Score:5, Interesting)

        by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:55PM (#59117036)
        "Bezel-less" is faddy crap -- bezels are actually a GOOD thing since they protect the screen. Also, I have a (bezeled) phone that's 3-4mm thick and still has a removable battery. Anyway, if slightly uglier phones are the price we have to pay to protect Mother Gaia, I'm OK with that!

        • Re: (Score:3)

          by hey! ( 33014 )

          It's funny how fashion subverts the idealized view of capitalism in which companies compete to fill our *needs*. In fashion-driven industries, they compete for control of our *wants*.

          • It's funny how fashion subverts the idealized view of capitalism in which companies compete to fill our *needs*. In fashion-driven industries, they compete for control of our *wants*.

            There is really not much difference between a "need" and a "want". You don't really "need" clean water, or clothing, or shelter. Some people survive without them.

            In some languages, there is not even a clear distinction between the concepts of "need" and "want" like there is in English.

        • Re:Good ... should be 4-5 years. (Score:5, Insightful)

          by msauve ( 701917 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @01:39PM (#59117362)
          ...and bezels make the phone easier to hold without accidentally touching a screen edge. "Chins" allow front facing stereo speakers and no notches. Most people put a case/protector on their phones - so just make the phones thicker in the first place (thin is the equivalent of 1950's automotive tail fins). That would provide room for more protection and a larger, user replaceable battery. And a headphone jack, if you believe their lame excuses.

          Finally, make the outer case replaceable. Remember the old Nokias, with swappable, customizable covers? A tougher phone with a replaceable cover, and there's no need for additional protection.
      • Lil' Wayne is disappointed [youtube.com] you forgot his commercials with the USB port getting wet...

    • Mandate user-replaceable batteries and charging ports in phones.

      Preach it, brother! I'd be all for this.

      Seriously, I'd be all for a law that mandated certain parts being replaceable. So a phone might have to be 1/10th of a millimeter thicker- people will get over it.

      Long-term use is the best form of recycling -- if you're using it, you're not burning energy making a new device, recycling the old one, and making e-waste out of what can't (won't) be recycled.

      ^^^^THIS this this. Making things that last is *the* single best way to reduce waste and to reduce the need to recycle.

    • Mandate user-replaceable batteries and charging ports in phones. They can still be waterproof ...

      My Kyocera Hydro VIBE [kyoceramobile.com] has a user-replaceable battery (and memory, SIM cards), has a headphone jack and is "Certified dust resistant and waterproof for IP57 - protection against dust and water immersion for up to 30 minutes in up to 3.28 feet (1 meter) of water" -- and came out in 2014. Ya, it only runs KitKat, but still does everything I need it to do...

      • B..bu...but it's so 2014 and UGLY. No notch, big bezel, I wouldn't be caught DEAD carrying this thing.

        • B..bu...but it's so 2014 and UGLY. No notch, big bezel, I wouldn't be caught DEAD carrying this thing.

          I know you're being facetious, but I actually like the way it looks (and feels) -- and it's sturdy and easily fits in my hand/pocket, unlike many of the newer fondle-slabs.

          • I know you're being facetious, but I actually like the way it looks (and feels) -- and it's sturdy and easily fits in my hand/pocket, unlike many of the newer fondle-slabs.

            Yeah, I actually liked my old flip-phone, easy to carry around. I don't understand why phones have to be enormous.

            • Yeah, I actually liked my old flip-phone, easy to carry around.

              If you like flip phones so much, then why don't you buy one?

              There are plenty available, and they are cheap. Go to Amazon and type "flip phone".

              I don't understand why phones have to be enormous.

              I don't understand why people whine about problems that don't exist.

      • Samsung Galaxy S5 here - same deal, replaceable battery, MicroSD card slot, headphone port, waterproof.

        I'd replace it with something better if it existed.

      • protection against dust and water immersion usually means being careful not to drown your phone in water, i.e. stop being careless with a hundreds of dollars (euros) device

    • But then cell phone makers won't be able to sell as many phones, without everyone upgrading every 2 years.

      Won't someone please think of the poor cell phone companies?

    • Mandate user-replaceable batteries and charging ports in phones. They can still be waterproof -- put the battery behind a screwed-on panel sealed with a sillycone gasket. Long-term use is the best form of recycling -- if you're using it, you're not burning energy making a new device, recycling the old one, and making e-waste out of what can't (won't) be recycled.

      Isn't the percentage of phones that die to spills or submersion pretty low anyway? It's got to be far lower than the number that die from falls or dead batteries where repair costs more than its worth.

    • Re:Good ... should be 4-5 years. (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Alain Williams ( 2972 ) <addw@phcomp.co.uk> on Friday August 23, 2019 @02:11PM (#59117624) Homepage

      Mandate user-replaceable batteries and charging ports in phones.

      Mandate that software updates be available for the full life of the 'phone - this should be a minimum of about 6 years from when the last 'phone is SOLD, not when the first one is - too many people buy something and support evaporates in under a year.

    • Stop buying crap designs, and they would still be features.

      You yourself are the only one that change things. Every one of you, yourselves.

      Keep buying garbage, they will make garbage suitable only for their income, instead of things people need. Cameras would still be just cameras; phones would be just phones; Internet tablets would be just be tablets. Standards, modularity, and repair have all died because you and yours keep buying disposable, self-destructing, half broken, untested, non-quality items.

  • And if the Cellular company hadn't given me the phone for free because the 5 year old one used frequencies they were discontinuing I would have kept the old phone until it was no longer working. I'd rreplaced the battery and put in a bigger U sd card.

    I guess I'm driving up the average keep time almost all by myself.

  • The majority of people do the financing through their carrier which has gone from 24 to 30 month duration in most cases. The next round of phone price increases will push that to 36 month. $30/mo seems to be the sweet spot that people are willing to accept for an additional charge per month.

    • Re:No kidding (Score:5, Insightful)

      by b0s0z0ku ( 752509 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:56PM (#59117046)
      Why would you finance a phone when you can buy a perfectly good phone (Moto E5, with removable battery) for $100 cash?

      • In my case it was because the financing was the exact same price as buying the same phone outright. If they're dumb enough to give me an interest free loan, might as well take it.

        • There's usually a downside. Either the phone is gimped (SIM-locked), there are fees, or the price is inflated above the "street" (Amazon) price.

          • here's usually a downside. Either the phone is gimped (SIM-locked), there are fees, or the price is inflated above the "street" (Amazon) price.

            In the USA, carriers are required to unlock phones once they are paid off.

            Because of the way the cellphone market in the USA has been distorted by the carriers, the phone is likely to be cheaper.

            If you want to buy a phone that is cheaper and pay cash, you need to buy a model that the carriers do not sell, or buy a grey market version, with an unenforcible warranty.

  • when i took my 6s to the Apple store for a battery replacement the 'genius' wouldn't shut up about how i was overdue for a new phone. "what do you use your phone for?" Me: phone calls, texting, some games. managing my drug empire. Nothing serious.

    when i insisted i didn't need a new phone he looked at me like i'd slapped his mother. $55 for a new battery and it works fine.

    • Given the current next gen rumors, I'll be doing a battery replacement for my 7 soon. I'm waiting for them to replace FaceID with something else. Either back to TouchID or something new. Same thing with the iPad. I'm wanting a new one, but it will wait until they figure it out.

    • "Shut your yap-quack and replace the fucking battery. Me customer, you worker. Get to work!" *clap*clap*

    • I’ve also got a 6S, and can’t remember ever thinking “this phone is too slow”. Phones are basically commodities now.

      Should my 6S die, I have no intention of spending $900-1200 on a replacement either.

    • FWIW you don’t need to deal with the hassle of going to an Apple store and dealing with the Apple repairmen cum sales droids, if you can do without your phone for a few days. Apple will send you a box to ship your phone into one of their repair facilities. It adds 7 bucks to the out-of-warranty repair cost, but your time is probably worth more than that.

      https://support.apple.com/ipho... [apple.com]

  • Which was released six years ago. Most people don’t upgrade their phones because there is no guarantee newer phones come with newer android versions.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Obfuscant ( 592200 )
      Backwards. I, for one, hesitate to upgrade specifically because they WILL come with newer Android versions. You know, where Google/et al have decided that OTA updates are mandatory and unstoppable, "security" means you can't write to the SD card from the phone itself, apps store their data in their little walled garden instead of easily accessible directories.

      The new LG phone I got yesterday rebooted four times overnight while I was trying to put data on it. No warning, no notice, just boom, reboot. I had

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AvitarX ( 172628 )

      I also think it was the best version.

      It's been a long time since I used it, but 5 was definitely a downgrade, and I'm not sure it's ever gotten as good as 4.4

  • Patent law (Score:3)

    by BytePusher ( 209961 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:44PM (#59116982) Homepage
    Perhaps patent law is preventing new competitors from entering the market. It's identical to local monopolies given to ISPs, once the competition is gone innovation stops. So we have a choice, protect the status quo, or shake up the game through corporate breakups, and drastically limited patent and copyright terms.

    • PhoneArena.com has entries for 130 manufacturers.
      https://www.phonearena.com/pho... [phonearena.com]

      Don't let reality get in the way of the ridiculousness you read on some blog, though.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by HiThere ( 15173 )

      I think it's more a "low hanging fruit" problem. The easy and useful things have been done, and nobody's quite sure how to do something else that will actually be useful. Locally handled voice recognition would be useful...but nobody knows how to do it. What else?

  • Because phones cost nearly $1000 (Score:5, Insightful)

    by JustAnotherOldGuy ( 4145623 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:53PM (#59117018) Journal

    This isn't mysterious- it's because a lot of phones cost nearly $1000, especially the trendy, sought after ones.

    Who wants to pay $1000 every year when there don't seem to be any significant advances or new features?

    A $200 or $300 phone is more than enough for most people, especially the ones who aren't in love with their phone, fondle it constantly, or see it as a status symbol.

    I'm happily using a Galaxy S5 and it's fine for what I need. You can get one on Amazon for under $100 or go for a fancier model for ~$200. There are hundreds and hundreds of good phones on Amazon that sell for a couple of hundred bucks. In short, there's no need for me to buy a more expensive phone.

    But hey, if you want to drop a $1000 on the latest Shiny Thing(r) from Apple or Samsung, be my guest.

    • A $200 or $300 phone is more than enough for most people, especially the ones who aren't in love with their phone, fondle it constantly, or see it as a status symbol.

      I had to buy an Android phone [tracfone.com] a few weeks ago for testing a web app at work. It cost $25 and has a 5" screen, and 8 MP camera and 16GB RAM, and runs Oreo. Never had to activate it for phone service, but I was pretty amazed that I could get a device like this for so cheap.

      • Wow, that is a lot of bang for the buck.

        Hmmm, maybe I should spend $50 on a new phone, something different. I figure no matter what I get, even at $50, it would probably thoroughly trounce my ancient Galaxy S5 in terms of specs and performance.

    • I really like the galaxy line. I've been consistently buying 2-3 generations behind the current one every few years. On the S7 now which is a great phone, but I might bump up to the S9 at some point soon and hand down the S7. Probably whenever the next one comes out.

      I'm not interested in shelling out $1000 for a top-of-the-line phone, but I'm not opposed to dropping $600 for that same phone a year or three later. If I use that $600 phone for 3 years, that comes out to less than $20/month. That's a fairly re

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by urusan ( 1755332 )

        I have an S7 and my wife has a S9. Be aware that they changed the S series pretty substantially with the S8 and the S9 is just an upgrade of the S8. In particular, it's far harder to use a real phone protector case or screen protector, due to the round geometry they went to (we ended up with my wife's phone having a very insensitive screen that she's just gotten used to), and I hear that unprotected it's very fragile (or at least the S8 was) though it should be noted that my wife's phone is still just fine

    • These devices have reached the 'good enough' phase, so the lifetime will continue to increase. just like PCs did some years ago. As you note, barring some whole new category of usage, even $200 devices are good enough for most users nowadays. Product life cycle in all its glory.

  • Someone said how we would soon all replace our phones to buy nice new ones that did 5g. 5g is not going to be worth much to me for a year. If there is something next summer, that will make my phone 3. That is a good point to start thinking about replacing my oneplus5.

    • 5G... yeah, everyone is talking abou this technology as if it will ever be deployed anywhere near me... I do not live in a city, so it will never get to me until they develop 7G... by then I am sure I will at least have reliable 4g. Rural areas are always last you see, and by last I mean, only done to the bare minimum to get government regulators off the cell phone companies backs.

  • I'm in Australia, so buying a phone and paying for a connection is a bit different. I bought a Nokia (Finland, not China) about 7 years ago. It still works fine, having had software updates just once, and the replacable battery is also working fine (not replaced yet).
    Granted I can't do social media stuff with it ... but it makes calls, text messaging, takes (small) photos, keeps notes and a calendar. Did I mention it's design is in the style of the old Blackberry?
    I volunteer at the Library, to help people w

  • OS Updates (Score:5, Interesting)

    by crow ( 16139 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @12:59PM (#59117068) Homepage Journal

    The only downside to all this is the lack of OS Updates. I'm looking at Samsung here, but I think it's fairly typical of Android vendors to only do two major OS upgrades, and then you're stuck with whatever it has. With Google putting out a major Android release about once a year, that means after three years the phone no longer has the latest Android, and is probably not getting security updates either.

    Now occasionally the hardware requirements for new Android releases changes, so that they can't be made available for older hardware, but that's rare. Instead the vendors just don't want to spend money on support, especially when they can turn around and use the latest software as a marketing tool to get you to buy a new phone.

    Maybe if someone starts successfully advertising phones with four years of software updates, and Samsung starts to lose market share, this will change. Maybe Google could somehow force it, either by taking over the upgrades themselves (unlikely) or putting it into vendor contracts. Maybe government regulations could address this, but I would much prefer to see the market solve the problem on their own.

    • Re:OS Updates (Score:4)

      by twocows ( 1216842 ) on Friday August 23, 2019 @02:47PM (#59117888)
      I think HMD Global (aka new Nokia) has been doing a great job lately. I think just about all of their current lineup is on Android One, which (aside from requiring no or minimal bloatware) requires 2 years of feature updates and 3 years of security updates in order to be allowed to use the branding. So far they've not only followed through on it, they've done one better: the program doesn't say anything about how fast upgrades need to happen, but they've been completely on top of getting things out quickly, almost all of their devices I believe are on Pie (aka 9) right now with only a small handful of exceptions and they've announced a rollout plan for 10 already.

      My current phone's the 2.2 which only ran me $150 and also has a headphone jack and a removable battery; it's a nice little cheapphone. I'm sure it can't run heavy duty games, and unfortunately RetroArch crashes on startup on it (I need to remember to report that this weekend), but otherwise I really like it.
    • Worrying about security on a "smart" phone makes about as much sense as worrying about getting too tan in a tanning bed. You do understand what a "smart" phone is, don't you?
    • I'm approaching 3 years and currently running Android 10 beta on my Pixel XL. I won't get another phone until I miss an update at the earliest.

  • Nexus 4, Nexus 5x (with one mid-cycle warranty bootloop replacement), Pixel 3a. I'm guessing late-'22-ish the Google Borg will figure it's time to launch another reasonably-priced full-feature phone and I'll grudgingly go to it.

  • The phone release update cycle starts resembling something like the car industry products. With cars, you get a major redesign now and then (more like once in 5-8 years), however, a slightly updated model is announced every year. The same goes with phones now, I think apple exemplifies it best. First were those little original iphones, 3G, 4, 4S, effectively the same design with slightly updated specs. When Apple jumped onto the bigger screens, then we saw the reincarnations of the same iPhone 6 for 4 years

  • I never saw the reasoning to replace a $1000 phone every year when there's nothing wrong with it. I usually go 4-5 years replacing when either the screen is busted (really busted) or it doesn't hold a charge long enough anymore.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      Got a replacement battery for my Samsung galazy note to a few quid and it was Samsung branded, worth considering. And even if the battery isn't user replaceable you might get a shop do it for you cheap.

  • There's little need to upgrade when most advancements in apps require the bandwidth that wireless providers refuse to provide at a reasonable and flat rate.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Jerry ( 6400 )
      However, for people who don't drive that much, less than 1,200 mi/yr, like my wife and I, our WiFI is how we connect. My Android Note 7 gives me 32Mb down and 31Mb up via the WiFi. My wife's iPhone 6 does about the same. We share our 300Mb optic fiber with four other devices connected to the Wifi 24/7/365, including Alexa. With the WiFi in Airport mode AT&T gives me about 5Mb down and 2Mb up, but our home is in a weak signal area for AT&T. At other locations I've gotten 25-30Mb down and 5-10M

  • I had to update because my bank and credit card company said their apps would stop working.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by HiThere ( 15173 )

      I see your problem: Doing financial activities over a cell phone.
      Do you have any idea how insecure that is?

  • It is not that buyers 'PERCEIVE' that new phones are "newer phones' offerings as marginal upgrades not worth getting a new device for."

    It is that new phones are tiny upgrades in small parts of the phone. Oh, look, my already good camera is slighlty more gooder! Not.

    Or, Holy Cow, Batman, the processor is 10% faster! which with the current boards and ports means a tiny 2% speed improvement in some cases! Not.

    new phones suck and they cost MORE than laptops or many tablets. Battery life is a joke, and who

  • By an incredible coincidence that's how long mobile phones last on average. I wonder if it's related? It's like people are only replacing them when they wear out...
  • I have a Galaxy Note 5, and have no intention of replacing it until 5G gets a standard, and is widely deployed. When the battery stopped holding a good charge, I had it replaced, not the whole phone.
  • I'm on my second mobile since 1996, and only left the trusty Nokia behind when analog stopped working. I guess my current is "2-G" and seeing as I can't find a real telephone with real buttons, a real mouthpiece and earpiece, no camera and no huge breakable screen, I will probably just do without whenever they shut off 2G service. O well.

  • It came out in 2014 and I have no urge to upgrade. I can surf, txt and even make a call. It has a replaceable battery which I've replaced three times. It has real buttons and headphone jack. I've have not saw any new feature that could compel me to upgrade.

    • My S5 screen started crapping out, so I had to get an S7. I miss the IR transmitter in the S5; I could walk into a bar and start changing their television channels!
  • By policy, about the only option the Geniuses at the Genius Bars can offer is either 1) $300 "refurbishment", which is actually a replacements - say goodbye to your data if you don't have a backup, or 2) buy a new iPhone. Those were the choices offered to me when I asked about getting my iPhone 6+, suffering from "Touch Disease" (hey, it's a disease, so it not Apple's fault!), which is really a result of poor design. I paid $700 for my iPhone 6+ in late December of 2014, and a little less for my wife's i
    • Isn't all your data backed up to iCloud, so that even if your phone is wiped out by a nuclear bomb, you can just download all your data into a new phone? Yeah, my daughter has to pay $0.99/month for iCloud storage now, but it's worth it when you go to switch phones!
  • People should expect their phones to last at least 5 years. Moore's Law is over.
  • It makes sense not to make disposable $1000 products.
  • How long are the batteries they are hard-wiring into phones designed to last? My housemate says he's replaced his IPhone battery twice already.
  • When you pocket computer that also makes phone calls already does everything you want it to do, adequately, why not allocate your money to improve some other aspect of your life?

  • To start with, buyers perceive newer phones' offerings as marginal upgrades not worth getting a new device for.

    Sometimes what people see is reality.

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