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WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015 377

WrongSizeGlass writes "InformationWeek is reporting that Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple's iPhone by 2015 according to IDC. IDC predicts 2015 will bring: Android 45.4%, WP7 & WinMobile 20.9%, iOS 15.3%, RIM 13.7%, Symbian 0.2%, and 'Others' 4.6%. These numbers would move WP7 into 2nd place and leave iOS in 3rd place with a slightly smaller piece of the smart phone pie than they current hold (15.7%). The author of the InformationWeek story isn't buying IDC's forecast, because of WP7's anemic sales to date and Microsoft's recent stumbles with its first two updates. I have to wonder if WP7 will still be Microsoft's smartphone OS in 2015 or if they'll have moved to WP8."
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WP7 Predicted To Beat iPhone By 2015

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  • Nokia Sales (Score:4, Informative)

    by Moderator ( 189749 ) * on Tuesday March 29, 2011 @06:31PM (#35659690)

    "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

    Not so fast...the author seems to base WP7's success on the success of Nokia, which is uncertain at best.

    Yes, Nokia sells more cellphones than most other cellphone manufacturers COMBINED...however, a large majority of those sales are S40 devices, simple dumbphones that can't do much more than call and receive texts, but have a week plus battery life.

    Nokia has, since mid-February, doubled-back on their future strategy. First, it was WP7 ONLY...then they were going to continue to release Symbian and Meego, now, Symbian is dead as of 2010.

    It sounds to me like Nokia has no clue what they are going to do. At best, their explanation for the smartphone market has been murky; at worst, they still haven't addressed how they are going to make up the marketshare currently held by 600 million S40 dumbphones. Mostly people who do not want a dataplan or a smartphone. WP7 will not sweep into the low-end and take that market share. It's like Ford giving up making Fords, and deciding that they will only make high-end Lincolns to suit everyone.

    I said it before, Samsung seems to have figured this out. They will use Bada on the low end, and Android on the high end. In this case, I would take a lot away from WP7's percentage, and bump up the "Others" category significantly.

  • Re:Ms Abandonment (Score:4, Informative)

    by Jerry ( 6400 ) on Tuesday March 29, 2011 @07:10PM (#35660248)

    They abandon Kin six weeks after launch.

  • by Tridus ( 79566 ) on Tuesday March 29, 2011 @08:24PM (#35660980) Homepage

    This is what happened when Gartner tried to predict the mobile market a few years out: []

    They were so far off that it's hillarious today.

It's fabulous! We haven't seen anything like it in the last half an hour! -- Macy's