AT&T Playing Hardball With Apple? 175
Ponca City, We Love You writes "There's some interesting speculation from Cringley on why AT&T chief executive Randall Stephenson let drop that a new version of Apple's iPhone will be introduced in 2008. The announcement is sure to cut into Apple's Christmas sales and could also cost ATT a million new customers and at least $1 billion in market cap, says Cringley. 'It is no coincidence that Stephenson made his remarks in Silicon Valley, rather than in San Antonio or New York,' says Cringley. 'He came to the turf of his 'partner' and delivered a message that will hurt Apple as much as AT&T, a message that says AT&T doesn't really need Apple despite the iPhone's success.' What may be troubling the relationship between AT&T and Apple is the upcoming auction for 700-MHz wireless spectrum and AT&T's discovery that Apple may be joining Google in bidding."
Pscht! (Score:4, Informative)
Pscht, yeah right... AT&T need Apple way more than Apple need AT&T. Apple's whole business model is built around early adopters, they have shedloads of goodwill from the whole iPhone rebates debacle, and this won't hurt their business one bit. AT&T are the ones who really stand to lose out.
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They could even just sell the phones in the same way every other manufacturer does - unlocked units, or cheaper units subsidised by contracts.
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At this point AT&T is dead weight for Apple, I am sure.
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Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
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right verbing
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Oh wait, silly me, I'm not in the US (aka the backwater of personal telecoms).
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True, Apple does not need AT&T, but it does like the premium that AT&T pays for the iPhone exclusive. At some point Apple and AT&T are going to part ways but not for another 18 months at the least and probably not until Apple
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I know, probably wishful thinking on my part. Still, it is a nice wish...
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Put a stop to this one early... (Score:5, Interesting)
Besides, the fact that a 3G phone is coming isn't even a secret. If you wanted an iPhone for Christmas, you wanted one, and despite knowing full well that another one was coming next year. Heck, I bought one in June, knowing full well that Apple could easily introduce a newer version in November. I'd even figured out who'd get the old one if it happened.
Net effect on Apple? Zip. [isights.org]
And Cringely was right about one thing. Google announced that they were bidding today [google.com]. But the press release also made another thing quite clear: their application does not include any partners.
So. No partners means no Apple partnership, which means that there was nothing for AT&T's CEO to find out. Which in turn means that his comments were relatively innocent, and not "a $1 billion message to Apple CEO Steve Jobs." By my watch, it took less than ten hours for Cringely's consipracy theory to be shot down. Could be a new record.
Of course, you could spin it that Jobs, quaking in his boots at all of the iPhone sales he's already lost, called up Schmidt, pulled out of a planned multi-billion dollar deal, and Google obligingly issued the press release to cover his tracks. Yeah, right.
That's exactly how SJ would handle it.
Re:Put a stop to this one early... (Score:4, Insightful)
You misread the summary. By "joining Google in bidding" the poster meant that Apple will also be bidding on the 700MHz spectrum--not that they will partner with Google in bidding for it. This isn't a partnership--it's the two going head-to-head for something they both want.
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Besides the fact that Google's CEO Schmidt is on Apple's board, and that Apple and Google have a few things going on together, and bidding against Google would strain relations a bit, why would Apple go up against Google? Several things can happen:
1) Google bids, G
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You misread the summary. By "joining Google in bidding" the poster meant that Apple will also be bidding on the 700MHz spectrum--not that they will partner with Google in bidding for it. This isn't a partnership--it's the two going head-to-head for something they both want.
I'm not familiar with the FCC bidding rules - but it could also be a behind the scenes partnership that if Google wins, then Apple is going to guarantee a loan for Google or promises to purchase n amount of bandwidth from them, etc. Ie they can make it so that Google can go much higher m
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"A similar decision will have to be made by Verizon Wireless, which this week applied ITS reality distortion field to trying to make us believe the second-largest U.S. mobile operator actually intends to open its wireless network to non-Verizon devices and services. Yeah, right.
Verizon's move is straight from the playbook of the old AT&T back in the 1970s, when that company was trying to keep third-party telephone handsets from being connected to its network. If you
Re:Pscht! (Score:4, Insightful)
Doesn't Apple sue information leakers out of existence? Not that it takes an Einstein to guess that anyway.
Apple needing AT&T? Only for a few special iPhone features. If Apple opened the iPhone to any carrier and passed off that special feature set, AT&T would likely be everyone's last carrier choice so who needs who?
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Yes, but AT&T has a four year exclusive, so unless Apple wants to wait 3 1/2 years for this scenario to play out, the do have an interest in keeping AT&T happy for the time being.
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Crap. That's right. Makes me wonder if AT&T just violated the NDA - [insert Apple lawyers searching for escape clauses here]
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If apple did that, they couldnt collect "apple tax" on all revenue made with the i-phone.
The exlusive contract was the only way for a phone carrier to consider submitting to that kind of thug tactics.
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The word "group" is singular... (Score:2)
Because the word "group" is singular, as is the word "company".
Re:The word "group" is singular... (Score:5, Funny)
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In this context of AT&T, it might be better to refer to them as "Cingular".
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Re:Pscht! (Score:5, Funny)
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Yeah, I don't understand why you would ever refer to a large group of people as singular, either. I guess some people are just dense.
Bad phrasing on my part? Possibly. Though I suspect that it was more of an excuse for a joke than a genuine misunderstanding.
But let me take what you said to restate my point anyway. Consider someone addressing a class of students. Would we refer to what "it" thought or what "its response" was, or would we say things like "they thought" and "their response was"?
Yet, it's a class of students.
You could argue that in this case we're referring to the "students" in "a class of students", and that's why
Wikipedia answers all (Score:2, Interesting)
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Indeed - couldn't resist the setup, sorry about that!
This whole group as unit vs. group as collection thing is quite the irritating topic for me, all jokes aside. I tutor for the SATs, and it tests this stuff quite often (if it's been a while since you've taken it, they've added a grammar section now to bias the test further towards the humanities). Students always get upset when I tell them that, in fact, ETS does
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But I want to know why they refer to money as singular, as in "One million dollars WAS spent". I don't think anyone can argue that it shouldn't be "On million dollars WERE spent".
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Current market caps: AT&T - $232bn, Apple - $160bn.
Yes, AT&T is bigger, but only by about 40%.
Funny you should mention IBM... (Score:5, Insightful)
I would wager that IBM didn't blow off Apple, but that IBM really couldn't deliver a performance competitive in a form with a TDP appropriate for laptops, with the final straw being Intel releasing Core2, for all intents and purposes erasing the instructions per clock advantage the PPC architecture had. (I know Apple made the jump before that, but I guarantee you that Intel shared the Core2 info with Apple).
Apple smartened up and realized that even when IBM made up for it, the simple fact was that Apple wasn't able to consistently differentiate themselves on hardware performance (and it really wasn't one of their goals now anyway), so they decided to play in the same market as their competitors, ensuring that they wouldn't appear to be left behind at any point in time. Extra bonus of Windows compatibility in the face of the market reality of desktop software. They chose to differentiate on brand, styling, and software (to an extent).
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Jobs stated as much when he announced the Intel switch. It was all about performance per watt and t
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I would wager that IBM didn't blow off Apple....
IBM found out early in its PowerPC market lifecycle that Apple was a PITA to deal with and was only a tiny fraction of the market for PowerPC. The real money for IBM was with embedded devices. Opps, thanks for your time helping us design this architecture, Apple. IBM is still selling pleeeeeety of processors and Apple shifting to Intel "ain't nuttin' but a thing." The real news here is that Steve Jobs is now in his office doin' a little Balmer-like screaming and chair-throwing now that they understand just
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Note: That certainly doesn't mean Apple's Macintosh business isn't doing well by itself, because it very much is. Of course the iMac turned that around for Apple and it his been steadily increasing since, but your are correct in that their new consumer devices business is giving them a lot of mindshare and is probably driving many of the PC -> Mac converts at this point.
The point is, it is definitely still
IBM and AT&T are bigger than Apple (Score:2)
Remember year 2000 and value of Nortel? Where did that "value" go? Or Worldcom?
Apple is the smallest company of the 3 mentioned. They have the least number of employees by far. They serve the least number of customers. Their market cap is so high because of speculation on part of the investor. IBM and AT&T are by far larger companies that are much more stable than what Apple is today. That is
I doubt it will affect apple's sales. (Score:5, Insightful)
the people who'd care about the existence of a higher network tech iphone have either bought an iphone already or they haven't and won't get a 2.5 iphone, anyway.
he also didn't say when next year. "next year" is a pretty long time frame.
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Assuming your iPhone is still 1.1.1 and can be jailbroken, your wish has been granted?
http://www.tuaw.com/2007/07/25/tether-your-iphone-to-get-online-with-edge/ [tuaw.com]
-JoeShmoe
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both the ATT 2G and Verizon 3G suffered mostly from horrible latency where actually starting to download anything was concerned
This sounds more like a proxy issue than anything else. When I moved from GPRS to UMTS I saw ping times drop from around 2 seconds to around 200ms (the 4G stuff that's being tested at the moment is another order of magnitude lower latency). At work, I have a GigE connection from my desk to a 34Gb/s Internet connection. Loading web pages is often slower than at home where I have a 4Mb/s connection because at work I have to go through a proxy which insists on downloading the entire web page before sending
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Based on my experience 3G with Vodafone in the UK is actually worse than many Edge networks around Europe.
While Edge is slower it has much better management of devices in high contention scenarios. Once you get 20-30 devices camped on a cell even if they are all mostly dormant a 3G cell starts to seriously suck. It has to rehash the coding tree nearly constantly and this takes its toll on the RNC running the MAC. Its load goes up nearly exponentially and at some point it ends up keepi
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It runs Windows Mobile 6.0 & it is a touchscreen like the iPhone.
And it comes with 3G.
Why AT&T would do this... make of it what you will.
Echo (Score:5, Funny)
"Good Morning, How may I assist you?"
"I hear this echo..."
"An echo? Do you mean on your AT&T phone?"
"No. It's your CEO. He is just repeating what Steve Jobs said a few months ago"
EVERYONE READ THE ABOVE COMMENT (Score:5, Interesting)
"Sometime next year"? No $hit, Sherlock (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, where does the $1 Billion number come from? The same dark, damp, place that produced the "fact" that IBM was going to lay off half of its worldwide workforce?
Cringely: Wild Speculation for folks too dumb for Dvorak.
SirWired
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SirWired
Ah Robert Cringley (Score:4, Informative)
I tend to ignore his columns when he goes off like that. If he talks about upcoming technology then I'll read it.
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Um... this is talking about upcoming technology - sort of. Why bother reading anything he writes? And isn't the point of sites such as digg and slashdot to sort of pick and choose articles from across different sites that would be worth reading. it seems the worth in the previous sentence is where I made my mistake.
well, lukcily I'm one of the masses that doesn't RTFA. life is good.
Lately??? (Score:2)
Cringley (Score:4, Insightful)
So AT&T CEO decides to drop 1 million customers and 1 billion in market cap (!?) in order to send a message to Apple not to bid on the wireless spectrum auction, that's his theory? If I was an AT&T shareholder I'd be wondering why not just phone them instead...
Is this the same guy who predicted Apple and Intel merging
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Basically, they've got a contract with Apple; unless letting the cat out of the bag this way invalidates that contract, they continue to have their exclusive for the duration of that contract.
AT&T's interest in this deal is to rope in more subscribers. The people who wait a few months for the new iPhone are going to be signing up with AT&T. Granted they leave a few months of subscription fees on the table, but if they suspect Apple is going to knife them in
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I agree with you. What if it's not called the 'iPhone'? What if Apple spins off a wholly owned subsidiary (Like Claris) and sells an iPhone through that route? I'm sure Jobs has some tricky little out built into the contract.
"Ok. You wanted 5 years exclusive for the iPhone? Ok, we're never making a
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"Apple, we're the company that pisses on you, the customer, as revenge for other companies stealing our thunder."
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I'm confused (Score:5, Insightful)
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If Apple drops them, signs with another carrier -- or even none -- for their next iPhone, it would be AT&T that loses money, not Apple. Apple has already made a nice bundle with the iPhone, so they probably don't really need AT&T anymore and as popular as the iPhone is, AT&T can be replaced.
Visual Voicemail, AT&T has it.
You seem to be forgetting the whole reason that Apple had to make an exclusive deal on the iPhone. Whoever got the exclusive had to upgrade their backend to handle visual voicemail. Not everyone was interested in doing so (at the right price for Apple, I assume).
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Woah, a little less Koolaid. It is a regular, everyday cellphone. A few incremental improvements, a few nice new features, and a few features significantly behind the eight ball. It's not, really it's not, "ZOMG REVOLUTIONARY!"
It's telecoms vs. manufacturers (Score:5, Insightful)
This is all about telecoms versus mobile phone manufacturers, also known as business as usual. If a telecom thinks that is business is more than just offering connection, as in being a carrier, and as more being an service provider or an experience, then the number one competitors are the handsets manufacturers as they are the ones beside operator to influence and have place in customers hand.
Just to give some examples... Nokia has worldwide market share of approximately 40%, but in US its market share is only 5%. Why is it? Well it could be because they don't manufacture CDMA based handsets anymore (direct attack against Qualcomm), but mainly because in US handset business in operator business where operators offer to consumers what they think suites best for operators not for the consumers. To operators it suites that handsets are limited or walled, and to operators it suites better that the brand power of an handset is less than the branding power of operator. This has meant that operators don't want to offer Nokias handsets as to them Nokia is too powerful player in branding and service base, and so offering Nokias handsets more would hurt their position in longer time-frame.
What basically AT&T is doing to Apple is just business as usual. Kick them where it hurts. Weaken their position and try to make a better deal with them. Also it should be noted that market situation has changed as major handset manufacturers and also lesser known Asian manufacturers are all offering and bringing iPhone clones to markets. For AT&T it could be lucrative to just get some iPhone clones from far east with bargain price and brand them by themselves.
Of course there is remote possibility that mobile operators in US are colluding against Apple. There are only few GSM based operators in US, and I could easily imagine them speaking with each other to maintain status-quo in the market. So in example AT&T kicks Apple first, then as Apple talks to T-Mobile or other player, they just throw their hands up and say "oh, but we are not interested at that price", and voila telecoms win.
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One of the reasons I stay with Sprint is that they don't wall their phones. And as far as brand power. Well I think the Razor is a good example of how a make or model can be a big deal even in the US. I keep hoping that Apple will drop AT&T and go with Sprint.
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Well it could be because they don't manufacture CDMA based handsets anymore (direct attack against Qualcomm)
It is partially a direct attack against Qualcomm, but also because their CDMA chips sucked. They tried to do it without licensing (as much as they could) the technology from Qualcomm, and thus they didn't have a clear understanding of how the technology worked, resulting in dropped calls, poor reception, etc. Finally they gave up and decided not to do CDMA anymore, of course fueled by the mutual enmity between the two companies.
Also it should be noted that market situation has changed as major handset manufacturers and also lesser known Asian manufacturers are all offering and bringing iPhone clones to markets. For AT&T it could be lucrative to just get some iPhone clones from far east with bargain price and brand them by themselves.
It's not the same. The iPhone (for whatever reason) is the standard, the re
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It's all about patents. All the mobile phone companies have lots of patents and they share them. Qualcomm has very much patents concerning CDMA, and if Nokia wants to make CDMA handsets they have to pay royalties to Qualcomm. By not making handsets to CDMA, Nokia can cut Qualcomms revenue stream and they make CDMA less likable: lesser handsets you can offer to consumers mean lesser reasons for them to take your service. As Nokia has much better position in patents in GSM & WCDMA standards, it's for Noki
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The playing field is global. Qualcomm has offered its CDMA and EV-DO around the world. CDMA and EV-DO are competitors to GSM and WCDMA. If Qualcomm can get CDMA and EV-DO adoption rate higher, that threatens Nokia as they are mostly based on GSM and their patent portfolio concentrates on this area. So by trying to undermine CDMA and EV-DO by alls means possible, including abandoning CDMA handset sales, Nokia can make CDMA less attractive in both local, like US markets, but also globally. That's the point.
A
This kind of hardball will be ending soon... (Score:4, Insightful)
The industry is going to go through some wrenching changes because new players are going to be more willing to open their networks (for real, not pretending to like Verizon). What new players? Clearwire and Google, or a combination thereof.
This will make it easier for phone/device manufacturers to provide genuinely innovative products. If AT&T wants to stick it to Apple, they're going to find their bargaining position weakening. Quickly, I hope.
What "success" (Score:3, Insightful)
TWW
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Re:What "success" (Score:4, Insightful)
Don't you believe it. The average consumer here in the UK certainly does understand the concept of unlocking, normally done down a local market for about £5. What they don't understand the concept of is paying £270 for a phone - phones here are things that come free with your contract, paying even £50 would be considered unusual. There are exceptions, such as the N95, but that's at the very top end of the market only and is still considered to be unusual.
Cheers,
Ian
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You can even get a N95 for free (Vodafone, on an 18 month contract) with a monthly subscription fee comparable to O2's monthly subscription, however without the initial £269 for the phone.
Really, Apple's pricing model doesn't work in the UK or most of continental Europe. Why tie yourself to a network, an 18 month contract, and an expensive tariff if you can buy an iPod Touch for the same price and stay with your current network, contract, and cheaper tariff.
Bad enough having a new version.... (Score:2)
This is why I don't bother with contracts, your contract phone is tarnished and practically worthless by the time you are at the end of the contract.
It would be like having 20 year finance on a car.
NDA? (Score:2)
Either way, id be pissed if i was Steve Jobs.
Cringely's like a home run hitter (Score:5, Informative)
Steve already stated that there would be a 3G iPhone, and he said to expect it late next year. Quoted at the London Apple Store opening back in September. That's not the only time Apple's discussed it.
EDGE is ubiquitous on the AT&T network. If you want data access, EDGE support is a no-brainer.
With the minor upgrades to EDGE that AT&T did over the spring and summer, the iPhone is improved, and so are the other EDGE devices (like the Treo 680, for instance) that they sell. It's a good investment by AT&T.
Right now, most of the 3G chipsets are still relatively bulky and draw fairly high-power - by 2008 that should change. But the current iPhone has really good battery life - adding 3G to that today would hurt. Apple's also stated this directly.
3G support isn't built out yet on much of the AT&T network. It's still only in the major metro areas. Kind of where EVDO was about 3 years ago. Not to mention that their 4G plans are in sync with Verizon's now.
Seriously, these aren't the toughest tea leaves to read. By the time AT&T builds out their network for 3G, Apple will be ready to use it. If Apple's contract gives them an opening to play in 700, they'll do that as well. But I count this as a Cringe miss - there's no conspiracy this time, just a lot of obvious and previously stated facts.
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Right now, most of the 3G chipsets are still relatively bulky and draw fairly high-power - by 2008 that should change. But the current iPhone has really good battery life - adding 3G to that today would hurt. Apple's also stated this directly.
This already has recently changed. Broadcom just developed a new compact chip that supports all the major 3G technologies plus other things (Bluetooth, FM Radio). I forget where I heard this from, but a quick Google has a reference here [news.com]. IMHO, the "we cant do 3G because of battery issues" is just an excuse to stall wait for the 3G market in the US to develop a bit more first.
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uninformed drivel (Score:3, Insightful)
Sorry, but that's uninformed drivel.
3G and 3.5G handsets come in slivers that are a few millimeters thick and have excellent battery life:
http://www.mobilegazette.com/nokia-6500-classic-07x05x31.htm [mobilegazette.com]
http://ezinearticles.com/?Sony-Ericsson-W-880i-Black---Experience-the-Walkman-Phone&id=534534 [ezinearticles.com]
Some of them even throw in WiFi. Those phones aren't even particularly expensive (about $15 for the Nokia with activation).
The U
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Funny you should use the phrase uninformed drivel. Which is exactly what your comment about the F700 is. I had a team testing some applications or it, and they wanted to throw it out the windows. Everyone laughed at this piece of shit.
Pretty soft hardball (Score:2)
It seems more like a difference in corporate strategy between Apple and AT&T rather than an attempt to hurt Apple. Apple traditionally likes to keep things secret until they spring it on the public. But many other companies like to let investors know where they are headed. And it's not
real obsolescence (Score:2)
Hero$ (Score:3, Funny)
-GiH
Steve Jobs (Score:3, Funny)
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Most ATT customers who wanted an iphone have one. Some people are stuck on other networks for other reasons (family plans, etc). So now let's get all T-Mobile customers who really want an iphone signed up. A year later, move on again.
Except that ATT is paying Apple a lot of money. I wonder if there's something else on the horizon from google or others that makes ATT think the iphone won't be a good investment in the future.
AT&T shoots self in foot.... (Score:2)
Two days later, Apple did indeed release a new line iMacs... all of which contained nVidia graphics hardware.
AT&T may just have done the same exact thing. If you're doing business with Apple, do not fuck with the NDA, or you will almost certainly find yourself out of your lucrative and exclusive contract with them.
This is Apple's mode of b
Apples Sales Number are not big (Score:2, Insightful)
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"join in bidding" means they will be bidding against each other, competing.
yes... (Score:2)
I don't think this is a psychological issue, I think it's a business issue. Apple has abused a number of their partners in the past, and probably the only companies willing to partner with Apple at this point are companies that are themselves used to playing hardball with their own partners. Any company who thinks of a partnership like this as a long term, mutually beneficial, cooperative relationshi
Hmmm... (Score:2)
Steve Jobs apparently intended an insult. (Score:2)
Obesity [cdc.gov] is a terrible health problem in the United States