Vista Taking a Nibble Out of Apple in OS Wars? 406
PetManimal writes "Despite all of the positive buzz about the Mac operating system and the 'halo effect' of iPod sales, Mac OS X market share actually dropped last month, reports Computerworld: 'The share of PowerPC-based Macs fell ... from 4.29% in February to 3.94% in March. That dip was not fully offset by an increase in Intel-based Mac hardware, leading to a overall net decline in Mac share of 0.3%, to 6.08% in March.' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS. The figures are from a company called Net Applications, which collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of 40,000+ Web sites."
pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
If there is a down blip, it's due to people waiting for Leopard, not because of vista, and ho boy...wait 'till you see her hit the track
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Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
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Happy?
Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:pfft (Score:4, Funny)
Also, people who use Intel Macs are just not getting on the web because they're so busy making movies and recording their bands and stuff. That would explain the difference as well. And they're probably playing World of Warcraft, or some of the other great two year old games instead of getting on the web.
Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
The criticism about sales vs. avg. machine lifetime is valid.
In the auto industry we look at UIOs- "units in operation" - that is available via state vehicle registration records. On the whole, the data is pretty good.
Of course, we don't need to register our computers (yet), so we don't have that option.
Assuming the data [hitslink.com] isn't crap, I noticed that Apple has been gaining market share at an average of 0.34% a month since last September, until the 0.3% dip this past month. They went from 4.3% to 6.4% pretty quick, and it's notable b/c that's switching vendors (unlike Vista, which is mostly same vendor, different product). What will be interesting is the next couple of months- was this just a blip? What happens when Leopard comes out?
I'd put my money on 'blip'. I hereby forecast continued growth for Apple, though maybe averaging 0.1-0.2% per month unless they come out with some kickass hardware soon.
And no, I'm not a fanboy.
Re:pfft (Score:5, Interesting)
This chart [hitslink.com] on browser trend is interesting too. IE's market share is slipping like the Big-3 autos. Slow and steady.
I can't wait until IE dips under 50%. That should drive off the last of the 'IE only' websites, which seem to be decreasing in number (of course, I support one at work, though for a limited corporate audience- gack! I am lobbying heavily with the vendor to support Firefox!!).
But I hope Firefox doesn't get too dominant (fortunately, it won't). Competition and the adherence to open standards (at least for more mature technologies) are good things.
Yep... (Score:5, Insightful)
Windows: +0.20
Linux: +0.15
Mac: -0.30
Not a huge deal, although I think the Linux uptick is a bit of an unreported story here. Also, what's with the share of Windows NT growing from 0.71% to 0.80% (the only other MicroSoft OS showing growth)? That's like a 12.7% increase for an ancient OS! So, yeah, given that anomaly, I'm somewhat disinclined to give their figures that much weight.
Re:pfft (Score:4, Interesting)
Further, a variation of 0.3% seems within a margin of error for the ebb and flow of users visiting a block of web sites--even tens of thousands of web sites. For all we know the dip in MacOS X users visiting those web sites came from an "Apple TV" effect: MacOS X users may have been more likely watching their bright shiny new Apple TV boxes rather than surfing the web.
(I'm not saying this is what happened; I'm saying that the statistics used here are hocus-pocus at best.)
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Should I care that much about Leopard? It has nice features, but Tiger works pretty well.
I do wonder though, if somewhere within Microsoft there is an optimized image that will allow you to load Vista or XP on a Mac, giving the Windows user the positive experience of the consistent hardware Apple makes, and all of the Windows software they are used to using.
Sure, they could use Bootcamp or Parallels, but what if they don't care to for various reasons? It's also possible that if they are using Bootcamp or P
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Should I care that much about Leopard?
Yes you should if you're thinking of deploying Small Business Server or deploying/upgrading Exchange. If Leopard Server lives up to its promises, it will be a serious Exchange/SBS killer and if Micro$oft isn't worried, they should be.
As far as notebooks go, I love the Macbook pro, but I don't like its price tag. Though its superior engineering should translate into a longer lifespan than most PC notebooks, which are almost throwaway items now.
Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
Are MS and Macin the same market? (Score:2)
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)
The stats come from website logs, which is basically snake oil as far as accurate numbers goes. The decline could be something as simple as Apple developers tweaking Safari's caching parameters. Since Intel Macs already have the latest version of Safari, if the latest version is more efficient at caching resources, that means that HTTP traffic from PPC Safari users will slowly decline as they upgrade to the latest version of Safari, while Intel users are already at that level.
Or it could be something completely different - HTTP traffic analysis is useless for determining browser/os market share and the littlest thing can skew the numbers wildly.
Re:pfft (Score:5, Informative)
You need to account for licenses sold in relationship to market growth, transitions to new OS, and consumers who have postponed purchases while waiting for new operating systems.
That said, PPC OS X usage dropped, Intel OS X usage increased, people are timing hardware purchases to coincide with Leopard's release, and people are cashing-in on their wait for Vista. These are factors that may reduce the PPC Mac OS percentage for March, but that is not the same thing as a reduced install base, nor is it a sign that the growth of Apple's install base is entering an extended stagnation.
Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (Score:5, Insightful)
I use Firefox on OS X, and my main issue is that it doesn't feel like a "proper Mac application". Certain things don't work like every other program.
For example, on single-line text input boxes, a Mac user should be able to hit the up arrow or down arrow to go to the beginning or end of the line. Firefox doesn't behave correctly.
Widgets don't just look wrong; they look like they were pulled off of a Windows machine. And submit buttons are a different size than regular buttons. [abqpc.com]
In the OS X version of Firefox, the menus aren't Mac-like at all.
Don't get me wrong; I actually prefer Firefox to other browsers. But Firefox has been on the Mac platform since 2003. Within the last four years, the theme has changed several times. Heck, the toolbar icons have changed at least once under each incarnation(Phoenix, Firebird, and Firefox). Within those four years, I would have expected an attempt at making the browser act and look like a proper Mac application, rather than a port from Windows.
Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (Score:4, Interesting)
I use firefox, because I prefer the wider selection of extensions and I actually prefer XPCOM, but hey... to each his own.
Dualboot? (Score:5, Informative)
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2%? (Score:5, Funny)
$20 says Microsoft will simply disable XP machines to boost sales.
Re:2%? (Score:4, Insightful)
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You're suggesting (seriously?) that you don't expect Vista to show up on more than 2% of desktops? I would like some of whatever it is you smoked this afternoon.
I think OP was being hyperbolic. Point is sound, though - you think 2K and 98 had a slowing effect on XP uptake, I'd say XP will slow Vista much worse.
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I get the joke, but Vista seems to do rather well on retail (at least that's what big retailers say here [infoworld.com]). And MSFT commented somewhere (says the article in the link) that Vista sold more licenses in the first month after release than XP sold in twice that time.
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No, I wasn't trying to ridicule you - I really thought you were kidding. Vista has launched very recently; it's really too early for it to have more than a few percent penetration. I thought your original post was riffing on that, mocking the slashbot inclination to put everything about MSFT in a bad light, no matter how unreasonable the argument.
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Must be tired (Score:4, Funny)
Sorry, that was just me. (Score:5, Funny)
over 2 percent?!! (Score:5, Funny)
Ok, Microsoft, you win.
In other news.... (Score:5, Funny)
=)
New Hardware (Score:5, Interesting)
"increase security at Apple stores to stop riots" (Score:5, Funny)
Security Log of Rent-A-Cop Sam MacSnappy
9:54 a.m. The store is due to open in a few minutes, and already there's a vast, unruly mob outside. Look at those thugs. I saw one guy crunching on a celery stick in an obviously agressive manner, and another slurping a Zero Fat Smoothie with total hostility for authority. Go ahead, Zippy. Make my day.
10:13 a.m. First arrest. Somebody named Merriam got a little too friendly with the new sub-$1000 unit. I told him, "You can do those kinds of things at home in your 1970's-decorated palace of sin," but in the end I still had to mace the sucker.
10:28 a.m. Man down! Man down! They're got Security Associate Clyde Dawkins on his back, and they're tickling him with a long feather boa and singing the "Macarena"! It's just unspeakable!
10:37 a.m. We've barricaded the storefront, but I don't know how long we can last. All these guys in thick, black retro eyeglass frames are throwing themselves against our makeshift barriers, then collapsing with long, attenuated sighs. It's like watching insane undernourished salmon trying to spawn--salmon in pencil-thin black jeans! The staffers are no help, standing around discussing their favorite yogurts and "the identify crisis of the Finder," whatever the hell that is.
10:48 a.m. That's it. I quit. No money is worth watching a grown man kiss an iPod.
Which websites? (Score:5, Funny)
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Not a shocker (Score:5, Informative)
http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ [macrumors.com]
mini is still at CD, not C2D. iMacs haven't been updated in over 200 days. macbook and MBP in 150. Compare that with the ONLY way to upgrade on the PC side - buy a new machine, and you begin to see the appeal of Vista over OS X when it comes to hardware sales. Finally, Tiger is on it's way out as well. So people are holding off on new Macs until they come pre-installed with leopard.
Would like to see the figures once leopard comes out
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I'm sorry, what?
Maybe I misunderstand, but what do you mean, the only way to upgrade on the PC side is to buy a new machine? That is *so* not true it's not even funny. I certainly upgraded my PCs dozens of times; I still have a chimera machine somewhere that started it's life back in the dark ages as a 486/66 running DOS and Windows 3.1 and is
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Given that there's a new operating system expected in a few months, there's no reason to hurry. And for what it's worth, we made the decision to switch back in the late fall. We've been waiting that long for some sort of announcement.
Here I come (Score:5, Funny)
They won't be connected for long:
net start BOTNET
Guilty as charged (Score:4, Interesting)
My wife still has some problems, but seems quite happy so far.
So yes, in our case, buying an iPod led us to buy a Mac.
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Very misleading (Score:5, Insightful)
I do a lot of consulting work and it's very hard to get a new PC for someone that doesn't come with Vista. They don't want Vista but they have no choice. Then we get to deal with figuring out what software they need works and what needs patches and what just plain doesn't work and never will.
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0.3% well within margin of error.... (Score:5, Insightful)
Which means, Apple's share hasn't changed. Despite the fact there are less PowerPC machines than before.
Poor statistics (Score:4, Informative)
So TFA was inaccurate, not sure whether it was on purpose or just due to incompetence.
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It's ok though; I always judge people based on their slashdot posts. It's so much easier that way.
2%? Seems high. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:2%? Seems high. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Oh please (Score:5, Insightful)
Can we get real? Apple's market share dropped for one month? Let's see what could cause that:
There. That took about 3 seconds to think up. When Vista has displaced Apple for 3 months in a row, we can talk. Until then this is stupid hype designed to make Vista look like it isn't a dog sales wise (when from MS you would think it would have started selling like Windows 95 did). Plus, this is the PowerPC share that dropped. They are old and slow as hell (I'm using one). Now that CS3 is out (and was about to come out by the time they did this survey) you'd be an IDIOT to buy one. So the Intel side didn't jump up. People are probably waiting for CS3 (to put their requisitions in at work), or for Leopard (coming any time now, June 21st at the latest).
Non-story.
Re:Oh please (Score:4, Insightful)
From Net Applications' site [hitslink.com]:Ok. What kind of code is it? JavaScript? What if I regularly browse with Java and JavaScript disabled?
Or even simpler, what if I don't browse websites that use Hitslink? 40,000 websites is really not that much. Pandia [pandia.com] notes that one estimate of the number of active websites in 2006 was 47 million (using the low end). Assuming that's true, 40000 websites is only 0.08% (less than one-tenth of one percent). That's hardly enough data to accurately portray what's going on worldwide, in my opinion, especially if the sites used to generate the stats are Windows- or Microsoft-centric.
But, what does RoughlyDrafted say?! (Score:5, Funny)
Are mac sales lower than their market share? (Score:5, Interesting)
If PCs have a much shorter useful life, their percentage of sales will be higher than their actual percentage of machines in use.
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Yep me too. I have a few machines on both platforms. One is an old iMac G3 from '98. It works fine, a little slow sure but still perfectly serviceable - still on it's original hard disc, although it isn't frequently used. It runs much better in fact than my Compaq laptop from 2002 running XP. It's pretty much done, been through 2 HD's already, the monitor is dodgy and it's slower than the iMac.
But yeah, like everyone else
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Re:Are mac sales lower than their market share? (Score:4, Insightful)
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Meanwhile, the payroll computer was a 1991-vintage Mac Quadra 700 running some custom Foxbase program (precursor to FoxPro). When I left in 2002, it was still running, still cutting checks.
I too have a raft of Mac hardware from 1999-onward that is still in use; I have a 1999 G4 tha
.3%? Are they for real (Score:2)
Ah. You misread it: (Score:2)
Leopards Take Big Bites (Score:2)
I had to buy a Mini for extra work, but am holding out on the MacBook Pro for Leopard. Got a strong feeling many existing Mac customers know they need to wait 2-3 more months.
One friend with XP Pro has had inumerable problems with XP Pro, mostly because of the various crap that managed to infect his machine even with decent malware protection. Then a hard drive started to go wacko, and the scanner wouldn't work. The time & money this gu
Bug As A Feature... (Score:2)
Step 1: Release buggy O.S.
Step 2: Require users to constantly go on line to get patches.
Step 3: ???
Step 4: Profit.
It turns out Step 3 reads, "Wait for market share to be calculated by number of machines going on line."
Broadband usage figures are hard to track down but seem to sit around 40% of households and 70% of active internet users. That's a hell of a lot of home computing users that still use dial up. 0.3% variation
apples and oranges (Score:3, Interesting)
Vista is cannibalizing the market share of XP.
Market share is like your weight. It's going to fluctuate, and there are too many variables for a month-to-month evaluation to be useful to anyone other than short-term traders. Today I'm 1.5 pounds heavier than yesterday. Tomorrow it will be down.
Seems way too simplistic to reduce the situation to two "equivalent" numbers. At least, if you expect the information to have any use other than getting us to click on the story and be exposed to banner ads.
Bogus data (Score:5, Insightful)
"Net Applications collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of more than 40,000 Web sites."
Any statistics that purport to show "usage" based on browser hits is inherently suspect, especially if the stats are used to imply they have some larger meaning. If they can answer these questions, I'll believe them:
- How are the servers of these "40,000 webs sites" identifying unique users? (server logs, scripts, or both? How long are the sessions they are looking at?)
- Are they looking at number of hits, unique user views, or what?
- How well can they ensure that machines are not being counted multiple times?
- Which sites are included? Are both microsoft.com and apple.com sites included? What about msn.com or mac.com? How many tech-savy sites are included and how many might-as-well-be-AOL newbie sites?
- Are the results from some sites weighted above or below other sites?
I'm not saying they haven't taken all these things into account, but publishing them (or referencing them by a third-party) without including how the data was gathered makes this all just so much noise.
APPLE HAS NO MID-RANGE HEAD LESS DESKTOPS! (Score:2)
Also mac osx likely will sell big if it where out for all hardware.
hackers may even buy 10.5 and hack it to run all hardware as well.
Leopard and Parrelels (Score:2)
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And on other forums (Score:2)
Linux has a chance after all! (Score:4, Funny)
And 4% of the desktop computers connected to the Internet are using Linux! Woo! We're beating Windows!
Virtualization has an effect (Score:3, Informative)
Numbers these days are becoming less and less useful as virtualization use increases. Just like "hits" or page views for web sites is less and less useful a number due to AJAX. Show us some numbers that mean something.
Windows Monoculture Still Strong (Score:2)
http://scobleizer.com/2007/04/05/i-love-my-new-mac
Even though more people than ever admit the disaster that is Windows, the mind-set that goes along with it persists:
(1) Get new Computer, (2) Load it up with every third-party cat-poop application you can lay your hands on, as long as you can find at least one other person using it, (3) Try and figure out what went wrong.
Successful Apple users, and to a greater extent successful Linux users are much more
Re:Windows Monoculture Still Strong (Score:4, Informative)
Oh dear... 10 minutes on Google should fix most of that:
I've never seen a Macintosh POS system.http://macpos.com/e t/e s/e nsepos.com/
I've never seen a Macintosh timeclockhttp://www.christianjames.n
http://www.posim.net/
http://www.posoe.com/e
http://www.shopkeeper.com/
http://www.sixths
http://www.xpertmart.com/
http://www.conceptualize.com/
I've never seen a Mac waste hauling program.I've never seen one period...
I've never seen a major financial package that runs on Mac, or even has a Mac client (think SAP, Oracle, etc)http://www.oracle.com/technology/tech/macos/inde x.html
I've never seen a medical billing package that runs on the Mac.http://mac.unimaas.nl/sap/
http://www.databaseconstructs.com/mchilites.html
On the other hand, I've never seen a virus that runs on the Mac. Heard rumors of them but have never seen it.random baselines (Score:2)
On an unrelated topic, the article seems to indicate that the some people are upgrading to MS Vista. Since this does not necessarily relate to purchases of new computer, I do not see how this indicates that
2% new machines? (Score:2)
B*llshit (Score:2)
"Windows Vista more than doubled its market share in March..."
Duh! It's the only thing most people have a choice of buying. MS isn't about to let XP continue as an option, so that statement is farcical at best.
"Now ranked the fifth-most popular operating system by Net Applications..."
Who is Net Applications? Who are they owned by? Google them [google.com] and see if you're any more successful than I am in answering those questions. As far as that being a meaningful metric, it seems Vista has bested Win9
Apple has to offer a decent mid tower. (Score:5, Insightful)
Mac market share is stable at about the 6% mark. These are the people who like integrated monitors or the toy mini. Pro just won't matter for market share as it is ultra high end.
If Apple actually has the slightest interest in increasing market share beyond the current they have to offer what mainstream buyers want and are used to. A decent mid size tower at an affordable price.
I actually want to buy a Mac. I use Linux/Solar/Windows at work and would like a decent Unix workstation at home, but don't find Linux polished enough (my desktop at work runs Redhat).
What is stopping me is the lack of decent midrange hardware without integrated monitor. This gap has to be obvious to Apple execs, perhaps they are moving the company in the direction of devices and away from computer and don't care about computer market share.
I will buy a new computer in the next 6 months. No midrange tower or equivalent and it will be another PC and that will be my computer for the next 4 or 5 years.
This reminds me of the Wrath of Khan (Score:3, Insightful)
All being geeks, we turned and started at him. "Ummm," I said, raising one eyebrow, "you do realize you are extrapolating from only two data points?" He turned red as a beet.
But apparently industry analysts have no mathematical shame.
There's a million reasons why market share could bounce down or up in single month. Maybe people were waiting for Vista machines with more memory. Maybe the manufacturers gave some nice rebates. Maybe a couple of big corporate customers decided to by a boatload of vista boxes for testing. Maybe somebody counted wrong.
Wake me up when you have the quarterly figures. No, make that semi-annual.
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What, waiting for Leopard before browsing the web again? I you are goin to make an argument at least make one that makes sence.
Maybe like which web sites are the stats generated from, maybe those are somewhat windows biased?
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Statistics 101 (Score:5, Insightful)
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On the other hand , most anyone trying to buy a generic run of the mill PC has no choice but to get Vista.
Based on traffic alone, I wonder how much the stats based on visitors counts the number of port scanning bots as visitors. The amount of Windows based activity is huge. I guess anything MS can count as an indicator of Windows activity works for the PR campaign.
Does the animated cursor exploit work on Vista?
Not the point (Score:4, Insightful)
But here's the math they didn't do... (Score:2)
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How is licensing the OS to work with other people's hardware going to make things any better? We've already seen how well that concept works with Microsoft, and I'm not confident that the guys at Apple will have any more success at it.
Re:Could be the hardware..... (Score:5, Interesting)
The attraction of OS X is that you have it before you, on a piece of hardware on which you know it will run. You don't have a situation where Microsoft points to the OEM, the OEM points to some Taiwanese chip maker's web site for an "updated" driver, unsigned by Microsoft to fix what should have been working the second you pulled the computer from the box.
God bless Linux, but I have to tell you, it has its moments. Is it superior to Microsoft? You bet your sweet bippy. Am I going to run it on my primary notebook machine? I have. Why don't I now? Because I deal with computers and electronics all day and the last thing I want to do when I'm on my own time is maintain a computer in typical PC fashion.
Or, to put it another way; having the hardware and OS lock-in was an attraction to me because I was pretty certain that I wouldn't have to endure the torture of Microsoft in the workplace. And I was right.
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I'm the sys admin for a company that "switched" just about a year ago, and man the hardware has been AWFUL!
We have two approved vendors for laptops here, Apple and Lenovo. Both are rated near the top of the heap for hardware reliability and support by independent studies. We keep track of problems with both internally as well and Apple is ever so slightly winning. Your anecdotal evidence is just that, an anecdote. All the hard numbers refute the assertion that Apple hardware is even as unreliable as the average PC.
APPLE -- If you're listening, license your OS for other x86 hardware. Now.
Luckily, Apple does not listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about. Apple wi
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Luckily, Apple does not listen to people who have no idea what they're talking about.
And as far as any of us can tell, you just lie when you talk. If you were to post verifable numbers your post might rank above anecdotal, but you didn't and it doesn't. So, your post is no more factual than the GP, but has a load more arrogance. Thanks.
Re:Could be the hardware..... (Score:4, Informative)
I'd post numbers, but I don't have a lot of time to waste on arguing with people who are unlikely to be persuaded by facts anyway. Consumer Reports puts Apple hardware reliability as #1 overall. It put them #2 for laptops, right behind Sony. The study our IT guy bought access to only covers laptops but placed them #1 for laptop reliability for 2006 of all the major vendors. I'd post links if they were not both password protected, but buy an account at Consumer reports, it is well worth it.
If you're a real cheapskate you can read an article by someone who did pay for access to consumer reports, like this Ars Technica article [arstechnica.com]. The most relevant excerpt might be, "As for reliability, Apple Computer crushes the competition, at least among desktops. Based on 77,700 responses, 11 percent of Macs bought between 2002 and 2006 went in for repair or had a serious problem. Sony was next best, at 15 percent, and Gateway was last at 19 percent. Among 50,100 respondents with laptops, Apple was at 18 percent, along with the majority of manufacturers. Sony was at 15 percent, but it should be noted that 3 points or less is not considered meaningful." That reference was in regard to their survey based study which suffers from self selection (but is still better than nothing) but their spot purchasing study concluded the same. In fact, pretty much every independent study I've seen comes up with similar results. Have you ever seen a real study (not an anecdote) that ranks Apple lower than #3 for hardware reliability?
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Ummm, your evidence is anecdotal as well yes? Why is your evidence better than mine? I'm puzzled.
It is true that I presented an anecdote, but I also referred to the independent studies of hardware reliability. For example, Consumer Reports. Every one I've ever seen places Apple near the top of the list for hardware reliability.
If Apple continues to have hardware problems, they're going to drive away all their supporters...
Everyone has hardware problems. Apple, in general, seems to have fewer than the average by quite a bit according to said independent studies.
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No, I am not sorry.
Re:OMFG are you people serious? (Score:5, Funny)
Remember the first time you ordered something in the mail? All you did was think about how cool the thing was going to be.
Now, do you remember the let down when you got the item and it was crap?
It's like that, every single day.
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Seen, maybe 1000 PCs?
While not as enthusiastic as the poster, Lunix does get into more places every day.
When/IF MS ever opens there protocals, someone will make an exchange compatible server and you will see even more servers go to linuxs. Thenhj someone will craete a nice email client that is like outlook and there will be no reason for half og all computers in industry to pay for an Operating system.
Then the user base
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The "Macintosh" HAS been stagnant lately. (Score:5, Interesting)