Apple's Life After Steve Jobs

animusCollards writes "Slate ponders a post-Steve Jobs Apple, including possible successors, and the future is... boring. '..it's certainly true that Jobs' style is central to the company's brand and the fierce connection it forges with its customers. His product announcements prompt hundreds of millions of dollars worth of free press coverage and whip up greater and more loyal fans, generating ever-greater interest in the company. ... At some point, all that will end. Jobs will eventually leave the company. There are no obvious plans for succession; in addition to Schiller, observers finger Tim Cook, Apple's COO, and Scott Forstall, who helped develop Mac OS X and the iPhone's software, as contenders for the job. But Tuesday's keynote illustrated how difficult it will be for any of those guys to replace Jobs.'"

I for one was pretty let down with this keynote

[utahraptor]

I don't know if it was just a lack of Jobs or a lack of innovation, but this was the first one of these that really lacked something new and fresh. Quite frankly none of it excited me this round.

The simple solution

[CAIMLAS]

There is a simple solution: just follow the mac rumour sites and skim the ideas which make sense (physical, technological, ergonomic, etc.) and turn them into products. Voila, instant fan-inspiring advertising, for free..

Part of me wonders if that isn't what they've been doing for the last couple years.

Of course, that's depending on whether Apple lasts. Apple has always ridden on top of the financial waves, so to speak, by catering to the upper financial strata... That strata might not be around much longer, and younger people, for the most part, don't regard computer differences with quite as much difference as we have in the past.

He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT?

[Markvs]

The same thing will happen: Apple will devolve again and be directionless, perhaps again bringing in a big soda company executive for CEO. History repeats itself. Market share will drop.
The problem with many firms (in IT especially Microsoft, Apple and Dell) is that they were built around their founders and really can't perform as a corporate culture without them. And without a vibrant corporate culture, the firm stagnates or fails. Commodore or Wang anyone?

USA Today ran a story on it a few months back... http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-08-21-founder-ceos_N.htm [usatoday.com]

Re:No one lives for ever ...

[morgan_greywolf]

Meh. Yes, I realize that Apple going more mainstream would mean that Apple would no longer be "cool" or "hip", but I think that at the end of the day Apple needs to broaden their market some or face extinction. They've positioned themselves as a fashion accessory. The thing is fashion accessories eventually fall out of fashion.

Difficult, not impossible, look at Scientology

[rolfwind]

I love Macs, so this isn't disparagements or drawing Apple customers like a cult (perhaps corporate culture?). But Scientology had one of the most wacked out, eccentric, but strangle charismatic (to some people I suppose) founders. After his death, its not just thriving but even gets people like Will Smith hooked. It's headed by David Mascavige [wikipedia.org] although few people heard of him. I would argue that this state of Scientology is due purely to it's organizational structure rather than any one man.

Having a good leader will be important. But the corporate culture will have to be in place. I think Jobs is very talented, but his talent was letting the good ideas and people already in Apple (or outside, like NeXT) rise while he steered them towards this greater vision. I think Jobs has a very clear vision in some ways (he said back in 90s interview Sculley destroyed everything he sought to achieve), and when he expects to be leaving, he should write it in a book what it is - so that it can inspire his company towards it.

I think though, in the end, having a strong leader with a vision at the helm is what Apple as a company needs. What that means, is that they have to avoid putting in business men/accountants who only have the imagination to see the bottom line at the end of the day. But a pure artist is often equally disastrous with less business pragmatism. For instance, Steve was inspired by a previous calligraphy class to put extra effort in fonts in Macintosh. Most pure business men wouldn't have bothered at the time. Reading his bio, he often obsesses about aesthetic appeal.

To nix the scientology thing from above, I could draw Apple as a design studio like Wiener Werkstatte or Bauhaus. Earlier last century, they made lots of distinctive but beautiful objects (Art Deco), going so far as to build entire houses and furnishing them. An integrated solution. On the downside, neither lasted long. It is the nature of such things, it seems. In another industry, perhaps Apple can be compared to Porsche and the father son team Ferdinand/Ferry porsche.... it survived but to me it's arguable that, while, the design spirit lives on, whether successive innovative spirit has since those two passed away.

I'd like to Apply for CEO of Apple

[scorp1us]

Here are my qualifications:

• 15 years in the software industry
• I have no problem saying 'no'
• I believe that removing stuff can add value
• I do not try to include all features possible
• I only include features to make a useful device
• I will not accept "it can't be done"
• I will create technologies needed to achieve my concept
• I will look to see what other companies aren't doing, and do it

Re:Really?

[MBGMorden]

What I've found though, is that while the "average" consume buys iPods and iPhones, they don't buy Macs. Mac fans buy Macs, and all of them seem to be firmly in the Cult of Jobs. They also serve (via word of mouth) as big advertising outlets to the average consumer for those iPods and iPhones.

In essence, owning a Mac is a lot like owning a Harley. Most people owning one are either part of some subculture, or trying to participate in that subculture (even if they don't really understand it) because to an outside observer, it looks fun and cool.

If you tear down the center people though - the "hardcores" - in either group, then the imitators and the like will not have that secret society mentality to try to integrate into anymore.

I think Jobs leaving Apple could well hurt a lot more than some think.

Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT?

[solios]

Disc authoring.

Presently, DVD Studio Pro (the "end" component of the Final Cut Studio for many people) will author for DVD and HD-DVD. It will not author for Blu-Ray.

Why this is, is anybody's guess.

Until they pull their heads out of their asses, the ONLY way (that I'm aware of, anyway) to author Blu-Ray video discs on a Mac is to run Adobe Encore on an Intel-based machine. This not only screws over those of us who can't stand Adobe's video software (I've used Encore, and only because I had to - I'll never, ever use Premiere for anything), it bones those of us who are still getting what we can out of our PPC macs.

Apple could fix this by addressing the problem (and any other issues) with a new version of Final Cut Studio.

And until they do that, Adobe's going to be eating into their market share.

Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote

[Shag]

The rumor sites were expecting practically everything including the kitchen sink, so by failing to introduce new iMacs, new Mac minis, the iPhone nano and... did I miss anything?, Apple didn't live up to their (completely delusional) expectations.

What really gets me is tech news sites - even MacWorld - calling the 17" MacBook Pro "disappointing" or "unattractive" because it's just a larger-form-factor MBP. Uh... hasn't it always been? Haven't the 15" and 17" always been pretty similar internally? And it's got this spiffy new battery made with Romulan technology, and anti-glare screens are back, and oh, yeah, there's a third USB port, woohoo.

It's funny, though - Apple is such a style cult, and has such a following, that the 17" MBP is being judged against... what, exactly? People's delusional expectations, apparently. Because it's not "disappointing" or "unattractive" when you compare it with every other 17" notebook in existence, is it? 1920x1280, check. 2.93GHz processor option, check. 256GB SSD option, check. Up to 8GB of RAM, check. 1066MHz FSB, check. 802.11n, check. ExpressWhatever, check. FW800, check. Dual video chipsets, check.

Yeah, I can probably get all those features somewhere else (though a fair bit of googling wasn't exactly productive)... but in a package under 25mm thick and under 3kg, with at least the potential for 8 hours of battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit. Doesn't sound so "disappointing" or "unattractive" to me.

And really, the MBPs won't be fully exploited until Snow Leopard and OpenCL drop, right?

Re:Really?

[jo_ham]

Well, someone other than just Mac fans must be buying Macs, since their yearly sales growth continues to outpace the growth of the computer industry at large.

You can assume that your standard Mac fanbase is buying as normal, but even they don;t have infinite purchasing power, or the ability to keep the growth in sales of Macs above that of PCs - if your userbase isn't expanding, you're not really going to see that sort of growth, especially in the turbulent financial environment.

It's anecdotal, but I introduced my friends to Mac when they upgraded their machines, but only when they were ready for it (ie, they were getting a new computer anyway). The lump-sum purchase of a new machine makes the uptake (and the risk of a platform switch) take a little bit longer, compared to an iPod or an iPhone.

Apple is in a *great* position with the iPhone and I can only see it driving more people to the Apple store for a Mac - using an iPhone is joy (mostly, and for most people) and works in a very "mac like way". A proportion of the people using it are going to want that same experience from their home machine, and the Mac is right there for them when they are ready.

I'm sure there is an element of the subculture, or 'cult' of Apple surrounding their products (I'm likely part of it since I waited in line at the first UK Apple store in Birmingham and I was about the 20th person inside), but you're going to see that sort of culture around any popular and "cool" product (or even not so cool - take a look at the Morris Marina club, or the Morris Minor club). Apple's club may be large, but I don't just have several Mac computers because that's what's expected of me, and put up with deficiencies in the product I use because it really must be Apple - I use Macs because they do everything I want them too (mostly) and are far more pleasant than the alternative.

To head off the "you can do it all for free with Linux and not have to deal with the heathen non-totally-OSS operating system" types, I have installed Ubuntu 8.10 on one of my Powerbooks, rather than upgrading it to OS X 10.5 and am currently looking at how well I can get Ubuntu and OS X to work for me as a multi-OS home environment. I have no Windows boxes anywhere in the house.

As a closer, I'll just add that while I'm probably the typical Mac fanboy (I have multiple Macs, have an iPod, buy music on iTunes, looking at changing to an iPhone when my phone contract is up, use Apple-designed peripherals rather than cheaper alternatives [bluetooth keyboard, igloo airport base station etc), I'm not totally blinded by the Apple cult - I dislike the Finder with the passion of a thousand burning suns because it sucks, I won't buy Time Capsule because it also sucks and I really would be buying the brand over quality/value if I did. I'm not going to just swallow that because it;s almighty Apple. However, at least the Finder is better than Explorer for windows (or whatever the file manager is called on vista nowadays).

Re:No one lives for ever ...

[bennomatic]

Forget DVR; I just want my ATV to be able to access the free--even advertiser-supported--content on places like Hulu and even the HD content provided by the networks themselves. I'd ditch cable in a minute if I could watch Lost a day or two later without having to buy it.

I actually don't mind buying it--I've done it before--but I'd rather pay less (or nothing with advertising) and stream it rather than 2 bux an episode which is enough to make you think, "I need to archive this, rather than just throwing it away after one viewing."

And I know about Boxee. I've installed it and it works, but it kinda sucks. I'm not speaking out of school here; they must agree, since the ATV implementation is officially in alpha.

Creating Fans By Attrition

[DynaSoar]

The admirers of Apple's cult of personality forget how it was created: Jobs drove away those who didn't fit his whims. He had the first Mac designed around his choices for the Apple II that Woz over ruled. The very act of creating it was purposely divisive, with a skull and crossbones flag flying over the Mac building, and non-Mac people barred from entry except by invitation. Rather than complimentary lines, the Mac was intended to supplant the very successful and projected to be long-lived Apple II (16 bit version in production, 32 bit processor, machine and OS in design phase). After Woz got fed up and left*, Jobs shut down the Apple II line. At every step people who'd been loyal employees, customers, third party manufacturers or fans fell away -- literally by the millions. More than once, to a lesser but significant extent, severe and abrupt changes to the Mac line instigated repeat performances of the II exodus. "Love it or leave it" seemed to be the corporate motto.

Jobs' cantankerous ways with the remaining employees, manufacturers and fans drove away so many, including major players and stock holders, that he was taken out of the spotlight and replaced by John Scully. It took a decade for him to grow up enough to be given back the reins.

Those remaining fans view Jobs as charismatic. Ex-fans remember him as anti-charismatic, and view him that way still if they even bother to think about him at all.

I've recounted these and similar details before, and gotten modded down as flamebait and troll. I expect the same to happen now, despite the fact that while it may be in somewhat negative phrasing, it's accurate and verifiable in media archives and others' writings. In the spirit of full disclosure, I was an Apple II fan in the extreme, was senior/technical editor of an Apple II fan-zine (The Road Apple; the first computer media source published simultaneously in the US and USSR), and said much these same things back then. But I'm not the only one who said them. I'm just one of the very few who still bothers to recount the history that most have ceased to care about.

* Woz left Apple primarily due to a re-examination of his life following a private plane accident. However, his displeasure at the direction of things was no secret, nor was Jobs' efforts to marginalize him. Between those, had he not had the accident, he'd almost certainly have left anyway.

NO CLONE!

[john.picard]

It will be impossible to duplicate Steve Jobs. Therefore, I think the top people at Apple need to spend some serious time figuring out who will replace Jobs when he eventually leaves and how that person can continue pushing Apple forward in his own way. In other words, he won't mimic Jobs because that would result in a poor imitation. He won't simply use marketing buzz at an attempt to produce the same feeling towards Apple, because it will, again, feel like a poor imitation. He'll have to gain the "feel" for what Apple has done right in the past and what to keep doing right in the future. I've heard that everything in the end must be cleared by Jobs, including the radius of the corners on the edges of the screens. Whoever replaces him will have to have the same sort of incredible drive to produce absolutely the best product, meaning not taking "it can't be done" as an answer, pushing the people to perform beyond what they themselves imagine they can, sensing what kind of products that nobody ever thought they'd need will, once seen, become a must-have, and having the understanding of psychology that it takes to make those products work the way they should. See, that's the crazy thing about Macs, iPhones, and iPods. When you pick one up, you immediately figure out how to use it and it all just seems to flow in a way that makes sense. They also look amazing. Place an Apple product next to any competitor's product and it's a difference of 100 years. It's something you'd see in Star Trek versus something you'd find in Office Depot. There is this whole feel that someone will have to have, but it must be done in such a way that it is not an imitation of Jobs, that it does bring in the talent, thoughts, creativity, and style of the new person, but in a way that does not turn Apple, the shining star that it is now, back into what it was in the 90's when the company almost disappeared from the Earth. Yes, with the momentum they have now, they can just glide ahead with a CEO who doesn't have "it", whatever "it" is, but if that happens, it will eventually be like Microsoft with Vista. Eventually that momentum will run out, they'll run out of airspeed and altitude, and it will be the Apple of the 90's, before Jobs' return. That would be sad because say what you will about fanboys, Apple has done and is doing some really amazing thing. They've turned computer and OS design into an art form.

Re:Really?

[Colonel Korn]

I know a half dozen Mac users at school who are almost computer illiterate beyond their love for all things Apple. They're all obsessed with Steve Jobs. Hey, he's even been parodied as the main plot focus in a Simpsons episode. He's as well known as Bill Gates, and people actually care about him. When the Mac zealots I mentioned above don't have a Jobs, who is one of their central foci in Appledom, the cool factor is going to diminish to some extent, and some of them might start choosing a PC and more money for rent over a new Mac.

Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT?

[Anonymous Coward]

we cant author BluRay DVD's because apple bet the farm on HD-DVD so now our DVD authoring app is useless.

They didn't "bet the farm" on HD-DVD - they don't ship a computer with an HD-DVD drive. They bet the farm on digital distribution (iTunes, Apple TV), and they're winning.

Sorry you can't author bluray, those five people with bluray players must be really bummed.

Re:Really?

[wibald]

I'm a librarian at a large university. Right now out in our public space there are a couple hundred of kids with laptops. Three quarters of them have new or newish Macbooks and a surprising percentage of them are Macbook Pros. They aren't all Mac fans yet but I bet they will be.

Re:Really?

[WiiVault]

I think the /. crowd has yet to find a file manager they actually like. Until then I would say the Finder is the head of pack, though I use an alternative on my Mac, most of the time.