Apple's Life After Steve Jobs 405
animusCollards writes "Slate ponders a post-Steve Jobs Apple, including possible successors, and the future is... boring. '..it's certainly true that Jobs' style is central to the company's brand and the fierce connection it forges with its customers. His product announcements prompt hundreds of millions of dollars worth of free press coverage and whip up greater and more loyal fans, generating ever-greater interest in the company. ... At some point, all that will end. Jobs will eventually leave the company. There are no obvious plans for succession; in addition to Schiller, observers finger Tim Cook, Apple's COO, and Scott Forstall, who helped develop Mac OS X and the iPhone's software, as contenders for the job. But Tuesday's keynote illustrated how difficult it will be for any of those guys to replace Jobs.'"
Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
No one lives for ever ... (Score:5, Insightful)
While stock owners of companies like Apple or Berkshire Hathaway may wish their CEO's could like forever. Jobs while "great" is still a double edged sword for Apple. Granted one side is sharper than the other at the moment.
But a less charismatic person could make different decisions that get Apple way more into the main stream. I could go on, but work is busy today.... :-(
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Come On... (Score:5, Insightful)
How about we just leave it at this. Regardless of who takes over the company next I am sure we can all agree, regardless if you love or hate Apple, that he will probably be more stable and qualifed that the Chair Tossing Google Killer that took over that other really big tech company...
Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:5, Insightful)
So a post-Jobs Apple will be 'boring'? Nowhere near as boring as the constant stream of articles about a post-Jobs Apple thinks this AC.
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:2, Insightful)
However, that has never worked at apple. What has worked at apple is Jobs.
Of course, they SHOULD be able to find a charismatic developer insufflated in a jihad to change the computing and entretainment lifestyle of the world, the question is:
Aint that Jobs's Job?
He should go out and find his mesianical replacement so that the company can move forward without making investors nervous.
Apple will be ruined by capitalism (Score:5, Insightful)
Say what you like about Apple (I usually do) but one thing that can't be denied is that Apple does what it does starkly in the face of existing trends and directions. They do it their own way regardless of whether or not the general consensus thinks it's a good idea.
This makes Apple a very popular trend setter and many people really like that about Apple.
This is made possible because Apple leadership is run by an asshole. And I don't mean that in a bad way either. Jobs does what he does from what appears to be pure inspiration. People just eat that up too. He is the Willy Wonka of the computer world.
There can't be another one... there will not be another one. Apple will become a blob of its former self and people will make decisions the way they feel most comfortable... incremental changes and improvements, following trends and very rarely will frighteningly new ideas get thrust into the limelight as they have been under Jobs.
But we will also see something that people have been begging for... something that competes HEAD to HEAD with Microsoft. And Apple will WIN.
Re:Really? (Score:4, Insightful)
Likely, for the same reason that it would be difficult for Collin Powell to replace Barack Obama: Powell isn't Obama, and does not have the rabid, awestruck fan base.
You can not replace people who have a cult built around them. Someone different has to replace the cult. I would expect any successful heir to Jobs' throne to radically change the Apple Image (tm) without any drastic underpinning changes. Black plastic instead of white, maybe? That's probably drastic enough for the demographic we're talking about.
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:5, Insightful)
But a less charismatic person could make different decisions that get Apple way more into the main stream.
Like Dell or Gateway?
No, like John Scully.
No, thanks.
More, like, NO THANKS! Scully's time at Apple was disastrous. While everyone at the time said that "mainstream" line was the best strategy for Apple.
Unfortunately it does not work that way (Score:4, Insightful)
There is a simple solution: just follow the mac rumour sites and skim the ideas which make sense (physical, technological, ergonomic, etc.) and turn them into products.
There is a problem with that.
People tend to not know what they want. Noone demanded something like the iPhone.
The secret is to understand their wishes and offer them far more than what they've asked for.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
We know who Steve Jobs is because we're nerdy, we follow things like Apple's keynote address and read
Re:Come On... (Score:3, Insightful)
The only reason this keeps coming up is because so many remember the years when Jobs was not heading the company. I don't know about you, but I definitely don't want my future Apple computers looking like children's toys again.
It is the end of an era (Score:2, Insightful)
Bill Gates has left Microsoft (sort of) and Microsoft is rapidly declining. Hewlett and Packard left HP and look where that company is now. These were all visionaries and good businessmen. You can't just replace someone like that. ESPECIALLY not with a financial person (CFO, etc.) Finance people know one thing, numbers.
In order for a company like that to continue it's momentum it needs an Engineer (software, hardware or otherwise) with charisma and good business sense. That is unlikely to happen as these people generally create their own companies and become the next Apple or Microsoft.
Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT? (Score:5, Insightful)
They already are!
Apple used to OWN the video editing market. Final cut WAS the defacto standard.
Well come 2009 and we have no update. we cant author BluRay DVD's because apple bet the farm on HD-DVD so now our DVD authoring app is useless. My only choice is some crappy 3rd party apps (Yes adobe's offering is crap)
Apple is dragging it's feet in it's professional lines and it's causing them issues. They have been focusing completely on the "oooh shiney" general public and ignoring their professionals on the backend.
I want my FCP Suite 3 that fixes the problems with the current one and give me native suite bluray menu authoring.
No such thing (Score:5, Insightful)
First off, there is no such thing as "Replacing Steve Jobs", there is only following him.
ANYBODY who is trying to "duplicate" the Steve and his infamous RDF is going to fail, and miserably. In fact, if I was on the committee that was choosing the heir to the helm I'd ask how they plan to "replace" Jobs, and if anyone mentions anything other than .... "nobody can replace Steve" (or similar) is clearly not good enough to fill the vacancy.
People wanting to continue the mystique after Steve leaves is going to fail . There is only one Steve Jobs.
That doesn't mean that Apple will fail after Jobs, but rather, they need to find a new "leader", one that doesn't replace Steve, but rather one that mealy follows him.
Re:Apple will be ruined by capitalism (Score:5, Insightful)
I believe that would be rather errouneus. Apple isn't playing in Microsoft's sandbox. Particularly the Enterprise one. Too many big bullies there. Apple will be more than happy to play in it's metrosexual box with all the dolls and shiny things. Laughing all the way to the bank. Why does everybody think that Apple wants to deal with Enterprise issues?
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
Wow. I think you've seen one too many episodes of the X-Files.
You may turn in your geek card at the door.
Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:3, Insightful)
As stated elsewhere, it's supposedly because Apple is tired of being a slave to the MacWorld schedule whereby (1) they have to have all the new, cool stuff ready by January that (2) hurts their Christmas sales because lots of people wait until MacWorld to see what's new before buying. Apple is successful enough (and has been for a while) now that it doesn't need MacWorld they way it used to. This was Apple's last keynote address at MacWorld. Now Apple will get to release the cool, new stuff when it's ready. It'll still have "special press events" most likely and I'd bet that Jobs will still give those.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
They might be doing it on the merits, for fashion to follow the trends or whatever other reason but I seriously doubt it's due to a crush on a guy in a black turtleneck. Most people couldn't pick him out of a lineup.
You might be right, but the people who are setting the trend and extolling Apple's merits are those who do know who Jobs is. Apple can likely keep the position it has right now without Jobs, but if they can't replace his expertise, then they'll have a hard time expanding their product line like they've done in the past few years. Steve Jobs has an amazing ability to relate to the crowd, he's good at producing soundbites so he can relate to people on the internet, and he's already cultivated an image of excellence that's largely linked to the man himself.
Whether the average consumer knows it or not, the people that make the decisions and recommendations know who Steve Jobs is, and it's undoubtedly helped with their success.
I think you have it backwards (Score:3, Insightful)
Jobs is capitalism to a T. He is exploiting a market by any means acceptable and doing a damn good job at it. If anything Apple will fail when the person running the show starts to actually be concerned with what the public wants instead of telling the public what he wants.
Apple is marketed very well and a big part of marketing is convincing people they must have it even if it isn't what they want or need.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
As for your Harley analogy, how many bikers know, or care about, the Harley CEO?
I'm not saying losing Jobs wouldn't hurt Apple, just not for these 'cult of personality' reasons.
Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:2, Insightful)
Jobs doesn't matter to the iPod business (Score:3, Insightful)
The Apple fanboys think Jobs is important for his design influence. But Apple's design work is actually outsourced. (Early on, Apple used frogdesign; they've since used others.)
What really turned around Apple were two deals. One was the deal with Microsoft that kept Office on the Mac, and the other was the deal with the recording industry that put music on the iPod.
Apple needs a dealmaker from the content industry. Probably a film executive; recording industry people are too dumb. (Really.) Successful film producers are good at getting multiple parties who don't like each other all pulling in the same direction.
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:2, Insightful)
Like:
(i) making a netbook (instead of letting the mainstream people, after the hackers, build their own $350 mac).
(ii) making a tablet ( a large ipod touch) that loads of people are begging for
(iii) opening up the app store (like the android market)
(iv) opening up the iphone (letting some function calls to the dark areas, like android again)
(v) if iTunes has been liberated from DRM, then why AACs, and not MP3s? Because the patent for MP3s dies this year, 2009?
I could go on forever. I have lots of macs, and lots of pcs. Macs are great, but I see them only as a well-designed, necessary evil on the way to Linux. Linux is not on everyone's desk not because of lack of apps, but because of a lack of ONE KILLER APP. Whenever it comes, people will come.
Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't have anything against him or Apple itself, but people need to calm down the Steve Jobs worshipping.
If they do that, they'll lose their jobs (no pun intended)!
The man may ooze style (if that's what you call the shiny, "world of tommorow" look of the iWorld), but he's a helluva narcissist.
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:3, Insightful)
You and every other mainstream tech pundit since the 90s. Guess what... you've been wrong for over a decade now. Fashion tech apparently sells and sells well.
Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:5, Insightful)
I can't believe that the removal from DRM from the iTunes music store isn't bigger news. I think it's huge news. This is the single biggest remaining reason why people are nervous about moving to downloaded music, and it's gone. I'm delighted.
Re:Yeah, And? (Score:2, Insightful)
I totally disagree.
The problem isn't that Apple has no corporate identity, but almost the opposite. They have a very strong identity, and it's intimately tied to Jobs, not just in terms of his brilliant marketing and product launches but more importantly in terms of the (high design, cutting edge, minimalist) more-than-skin-deep design aesthetic he imposes on everything that Apple does.
The trouble is that while a generic bunch of (post-Jobs) suits may be able to run certain types of companies successfully (generally the type that Warren Buffet invests in - stable markets where all you need to do is execute competently), they're very unlikely going to be able to continue that design aesthetic - they don't teach design/style in bean-counting school, nor for that matter can it really be taught. Jobs not only has style, and the asshole micromanaging, yet inspirational, personality to enforce it ubiquitously at every level of the products Apple designs, but also a style that has widespread appeal.
When Jobs eventually leaves Apple, the company will almost certainly flounder the way it did under (ex. Pepsi CEO) Sculley. IBM did much better when it brought in a high powered generic suit (ex. Nabisco biscuit boy Louis Gerstner), because IBM didn't need a high priest of style as well as a manager. Apple best bet (but still no sure thing) post-Jobs will be to lure away someone who is already running a high tech company where style is a/the key element - you either have it or you don't and there's no chance of a generic suit learning to fulfill that roll.
Steve Jobs should be followed by multiple people. (Score:5, Insightful)
Agreed. RDF exaggerated.
Jobs is remarkable in that he Part product visionary, part perfectionist taskmaster, part marketing guru, and part charismatic showman.
But more is made of his lesser role as showman than is warranted. I seriously doubt anything more than 10% of Apple product owners have ever even watched a Keynote. Steve Jobs charisma is nice for the free press it gets them but little else. If they keep building good products and doing half decent marketing there will be no problem. I don't watch the keynotes, but read about them. I was disappointed because there was no Mac Mini, not because Jobs wasn't there.
But in my opinion the greater loss might be in the loss of Steve Jobs the product visionary with the right measure of taskmaster.
I don't think these roles can be filled at a post Jobs Apple by one person. The probably need at CTO visionary/taskmaster + CEO-Showman. The should be figuring Steves roles in the company and how they can interact if those roles are split among different people. At some point the should staff all the roles and let Jobs supervise them, but let them run with it, but only if he feels that he is planning to leave sooner rather than later.
Re:Creating Fans By Attrition (Score:3, Insightful)
I don't disagree with anything you say, but I think you're missing the point. Today's admirers of the cult of personality have also matured, and have recognized that having a bastard in charge is usually the only way out of the swamp of corporate mediocrity. Farhad Manjoo's recent article in Slate about Macworld hits it: The problem with Jobs's departure will be that Apple will become another HP or Dell, selling it's particular thing that's not really distinguishable from anything else.
Apple fanbois these days aren't the "Apple will change the world" fanbois of yesterday. They're yuppies with cash who appreciate a name brand worth displaying prominently, and they're worried about it losing its social cachet.
Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:5, Insightful)
"with at least the potential for 8 hours of battery life"
Every laptop I ever owned clamied similar, and usually turned itself off after around the 2 hours 45 minutes mark.
But what amazes me, is that the battery is non-removable, so if it shorts or has some other problem, back to the approved iMac store for Joe Fanboi, and another whopping bill for service.
Doesn't the fact that Apple even lock you in on the battery tell you anything ?
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:3, Insightful)
They faced extinction 10 years ago. Now they are rapidly growing, successful in multiple markets, face no serious structural issues which are hampering further growth, have tremendous mind share, huge goodwill.
Yeah they are in a heap of trouble.
Re:Yeah, And? (Score:3, Insightful)
Here, I believe you are wrong. Apple means easy to use electronics people want.
That's a powerful image. When I go to Walmart, I see an entire row of 25+ mp3 players. The only ones people are eyeing are the iPods. The closest, a Zune, I have never seen in the wild. It's also extensible: they just moved into phones 1.5 years ago. With iTunes they'll become the defacto music, movie/video, and, if they play their cards right, book store in the future. That is pretty good too. They're becoming a real media hub.
Right now, they can say to themselves: "What devices supplied by their current industry is deficient, ugly, and/or hard to use, which we, can make easy?" I have one: e-ink based book readers. I'm sure there are many others, but they want the profitable opportunities - thus the small line of computers unlike what confusing line of products in the 90s. Plus new devices not out yet but made possible soon through emerging technology.
The downside, which you touched upon, is that they can't rest on their laurels. That they need to churn out new things. BUT, stagnation like that isn't good for Apple anyway. The artistic types always want to tackle something new, not just rehash the same old thing.
But they do have an imag which means something. The fact that it's not something as definite as you say is a double-edged sword. Look at Polaroid? They, too, meant instant photos once. It only hindered them in a market that they should be more dominant in (as they couldn't let go of the exact method of "instant", being addicted to the old revenue stream). Microsoft may mean "Windows" but what happens why Adobe and Intuit start compiling against Wine 1.xx?
Re:Really? (Score:2, Insightful)
But, Apple isn't Harley. People don't buy Macs because they're better than the alternatives, they have aspects which are superior, but they really aren't necessarily better than the competition.
If we switch to iPods, those are definitely not as good as the competition. Sorry to break it to any fanbois in the room, but iPods aren't good. They're popular, and that's a very important distinction. There isn't a feature of an iPod which isn't done by somebody else. And in at least one case that Apple got busted for ripping off from elsewhere. Think song database layout.
What you're suggesting is that the desire to spend too much on a product which isn't necessarily any better is innate. I'm not sure anybody realistically believes that to be the way most people make their decisions. So to sum that up, it looks far more personality cultish than you're giving credit for.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
Explorer's not that bad...
Yeah alright it is. But I disagree that Finder is better. Having used both, the Finder clearly sucks more.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
I have three words for you.... Final Cut Pro.
There is no more powerful and intuitive non-linear digital video editor at this price point.
Premiere? Gimme a break.
Avid? At a similar price point to FC Studio and a MacPro + monitor? Nope. To get the same power you need to buy a much more expensive Avid system.
Vegas? Bwahahahahaha! Another joke.
I don't use Macs to be part of a culture. I use them because they offer the tools I want with the power I need at a price point I can live with.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
But your theory is that Apple's growth is based almost entirely on existing Mac fans? Hmmm...
Where did he say that it was only on *existing* Mac fans? all he said is that the lion's share of those new Mac users know perfectly well who Steve Jobs is. And from my own, entirely anecdotal experience I'd agree with him, the number of Mac fans seems to be rising at a surprising rate these past few years, all thanks to the media frenzy over the iPod and iPhone.
He bought the original iPhone. He began to understand how great a device can be when someone has control over the hardware and the software.
Off-topic comment, I know, but when I read that quote something inside me cried a little. Probably the part that monitors my faith in humanity.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)
But, Apple isn't Harley. People don't buy Macs because they're better than the alternatives
Oh boy, a Harley fanboi.
Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT? (Score:3, Insightful)
we cant author BluRay DVD's because apple bet the farm on HD-DVD so now our DVD authoring app is useless.
Huh? Apple is a member of the Blu-Ray camp. Microsoft is the one that backed HD-DVD.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association [wikipedia.org]
You're right about their pro tools, though. It is surprising that Apple hasn't either updated DVD Studio Pro to support Blu-Ray authoring or partnered with a third party to provide integration between Final Cut Studio and a Blu-Ray mastering application.
http://www.apple.com/finalcutstudio/dvdstudiopro/ [apple.com]
Re:Really? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Really? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Really? (Score:2, Insightful)
There isn't a feature of an iPod which isn't done by somebody else.
-1, Yet Another Linux User Who Thinks That Quantity Is More Important Than Quality