Apple to Rule the Digital Home by 2013? 223
Stony Stevenson writes to tell us that a new study from Forrester Research is taking a crack at what seems to have become a hobby for so many, predicting Apple's market strategy. Specifically, Forrester is predicting that Apple will become the 'hub of the digital home by 2013.' "Forrester predicts that Apple will offer eight key products and services to connect PCs and digital content to the TV-stereo infrastructure in consumers' homes. A 're-engineered' Apple Store will expand into in-home installation services to deliver what Forrester describes as a 'fully integrated digital experience.'"
Re:Quick summary: (Score:5, Insightful)
Much more in depth than you made it out to be.
Re:No they won't (Score:5, Insightful)
Nintendo doesn't seem interested in providing the full experience, either. They focus heavily on each individual product.
Microsoft definitely has the strongest ambition. But they do often shoot themselves in the foot.
Re:No they won't (Score:5, Insightful)
Other than perhaps a less clunky interface, I can't imagine how Apple could trump that.
PS3 or Wii (Score:3, Insightful)
For the PS3, Sony has been helpful in getting Linux to run on it. The most important factor is the blu-ray capability. I know a lot of people who bought a PS3 just for the blu-ray. They own no games 'cept what came in the box.
The Wii is an exceptional game machine. Nintendo hit their target right on and that fact that the Wii is outselling the PS3 and Xbox combined speaks volumes. If the Wii offered up blu-ray, it would dominate even more.
Re:Quick summary: (Score:4, Insightful)
Yeah, it's total crap. Not every home even has a drier, or a microwave oven (surprise surprise) or even a TV. Heaps of people don't own anything more than a small radio and cheap TV.
Apple is not going to rule the home because it cannot produce products that everybody can afford.
Apple May Well Rule, But Forrester Misses Why (Score:2, Insightful)
The eight essential pillars on which Apple will deliver this platform, based on four existing offerings and four new product concepts, are expected to be:
* Apple Macintosh home PC
* Apple TV digital media extender
* Apple Store
* iTunes and its successors
* Apple home server product
* AppleSound universal music controller
* Network-enabled gadgets
* In-home installation services
I think those all of those miss the biggest weapon in Apple's arsenal, and one of them isn't even going to be a factor anymore by 2013 - not as we've come to know it. The PC - including the Mac - is a dying form factor for all but high-end professional use (think workstations). Gamers are migrating to dedicated gaming machines (Apple may well release one themselves), while what we've traditionally used PC's for - web surfing, e-mail, word processing - can now be successfully handled by cell phones. Create a docking station for the iPhone that allows it to use a full-sized keyboard, mouse and monitor while you're at home - or a portable docking solution that allows it to function as a laptop - and a good 90% of all "PC" users won't need a PC anymore. They'll simply use their phone (which really isn't a phone, it's a tiny PC with phone features and a customized interface).
With advances in wireless technology you'll also be able to connect that iPhone to your home's NAS, to your stereo and to your television to share and display content. Apple's big advantage here is user interface design, plus its existing DRM-enabled relationship with major content providers. They've also proven they can market new concepts and new technologies to consumers in a way HP and Microsoft just can't (terd brown Zune, anybody?).
And of course the iPhone can be used as a portable music and video player as well. The next-gen iPhone may well sport 30GB of flash, and by 2013 could be toting 300GB. That's certainly enough on-the-go storage for most users, and with high-speed wireless networks becoming common if it's not enough space, you could always connect to the home NAS and synchronize with it to pull down additional content on-demand (or buy it directly at Apple's online store).
I could see Apple getting into the GeekSquad business as Forrester suggests, for installing and configuring their own hardware. They might even release their own line of displays, amps, speakers and such, although to date they've been pretty content at letting others provide iPod accessories. That might change though as they become more dominant in the consumer electronics space.
Their other big play between now an 2013 could be videogames. There's no reason why Apple can't release its own Xbox - I'm sure Intel would be happy to lend them a lot of engineering help in order to establish a presence in that market. Make the device function with iPhones and serve as a media hub, sell it for $300 or less and watch as it erodes the market for more expensive gaming devices from its rivals. The iPhone is already poised to become a successful portable gaming device in its own right.
Apple could also use their position to smash the high-priced game model that's dominated the market for the past two decades. Keep the price of games to $19.95 and win share away from more expensive rivals, who have been using their cut of game revenue to fund console development. Even if they aren't a huge success as a gaming platform, it won't cost them much to enter the space this way. And they could end up doing to Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft what Commodore did to Atari and Coleco back in the early '80s, when the C64 ate the consoles' lunch. Back then consumers were more than willing to abandon single-function gaming devices for a multi-function device that
Re:Forrester cracks me up... (Score:5, Insightful)
So it isn't as though Apple can just waltz in to this arena and amaze people, the products already exist, and they are already easy to use. It also already works with Apple stuff. Put an iPod in your Yamaha receiver (many have iPod docks) and the receiver will control it remotely, and the Harmony will control the receiver.
Sounds to me like this guy is an Apple fan who hasn't really done his homework about what is actually out there, or done any real business analysis of if a market would be good for Apple to get in to. As you noted for home installation services, that's a big yawn. To the extent people buy that, they are going to buy it from the retailer they get the hard drives from, like bigscreen TVs. This isn't the sort of thing someone is going to think "Man, I'd better call Apple and have them pick up my TV from Best Buy and install it." It's hard to sell "cool" in the mark of in home installations and it takes only a minor look at Apple's business to realise that selling cool is what they do. The iPod wasn't the first MP3 player, it wasn't the cheapest, etc. What it was is the one that made MP3 players cool to have, that made them a fashion accessory.
I really wish Slashdot wouldn't post fanboy crap like this. Just because it doesn't come from a blog, doesn't mean it isn't just a fanboy drooling over what they think would be cool. There seems to be no business case for any of this, just wild speculation.
No one wants integration (Score:5, Insightful)
I like that I can have different components from different manufacturers. It means I can shop around for the best deals. As soon as one company ties it all in you can look forward to the death of standards like HDMI. Anyone remember ADC? The Apple Display Connector? Don't think for a second Apple wont start doing this to lock you in.
It boggles the mind why people get so excited about vendor lock-in like this. Suddenly it's a good thing? Did we learn nothing from the 90's and the Microsoft/Intel/Cisco empire?
In-home installation services? Terrible business (Score:4, Insightful)
Providing in-home installation services would not be forward progress. Eliminating the need for in-home installation services would be.
Cabling for home entertainment systems needs to be simplified drastically. Current large-screen TVs have far too many connectors. The home entertainment industry has been unable to make all the boxes talk to each other and self-configure. The display vendors, the cable box vendors, the media player vendors, and the "amplifier" vendors each want to be in charge. The game console people don't worry about integration much. So we don't have idiot-resistant plug and play, even though that's technically possible. (It is getting better, though; if you're all HDMI, things do interoperate better. Aspect ratio, for example, is handled automatically.)
Apple probably isn't in a position to make that happen, though. Apple may sell a "media center" box, but they won't be the only one.
5 year predictions... (Score:5, Insightful)
I suppose Apple as we knew it in 1996 is dead, but how many people really miss that Apple? By January 2001 Apple was on the rebound, 3 years after introducing the iMac and about to release Mac OS X 10.0.
I don't think that's what Forrester had in mind, though. I'll take any such company-specific predictions with a grain of salt.
blah blah blah (Score:2, Insightful)
Rule the home? (Score:4, Insightful)
hahah ffs, you're kidding me.. (Score:1, Insightful)
Whats next? Flying cars and world peace?
bit terrent (Score:3, Insightful)
And I really doubt that any company, even Apple, would really want to or be able to serve up paid media and install BT to link into illegal distribution of copyrighted materials onto their box like that
Bittorrent is quite capable of distributing legal media as well as illegal. I'm not a content provider however if I did make movies and or music I very well may use Bittorrent for distribution. I'd use it to distribute low quality version of whatever then allow a high quality version to be downloaded for paying customers. For a little extra they could even order the movie or music on physical media sent by Fed Ex, UPS or snail mail.
FalconPlacement (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Quick summary: (Score:4, Insightful)
If you ask me, so far Nintendo's been the most successful.
Re:Not with apple TV, but maybe... (Score:4, Insightful)
That's where they make their money. And making money by locking in users matters to Apple just as much as to Microsoft.
Re:Quick summary: (Score:4, Insightful)
One thing they always overlook... (Score:3, Insightful)
This factor can have a huge influence on a person's hard value based upon their ability to put their possessions up as collateral. For example, let's say two people spend an equal amount of money on the same titles of music/movies/games/etc, but one of them buys only the digitally distributed, while the other buys everything on CDs/DVDs/etc. Now, let's say both of these guys suddenly end up in debt and need to make a quick buck. Our first guy probably has to resort to turning tricks in some alley, while our second guy can simply go to ebay with his collection and wait for the money to roll in.
Unfortunately, the second guy is quickly becoming a dying breed, due to demand for instant gratification and personal convenience. Digital distribution screws up the concept of trade we've used for thousands of years. We're handing over our physically-backed valuables in exchange for something that has no actual value outside our own hands.
What part of "home market" don't you understand? (Score:4, Insightful)
Bittorrent? What's that? Isn't that something that pirates and terrorists use to exploit poor starving artists?
iTunes and the iPod have been successful because of the public perception that they just work - now, you can debate how true that is if you like, but that's the line. Part of that ease of use is exactly because they force you to use iTunes (the software*) - which annoys slashdotters who want to mount their mp3 player under Debian and copy .ogg files to it, but is a matter of sheer indifference to the mass market, who like the seamlessness that comes from the monolithic approach.
As for the AppleTV: at the moment, whereas the iTunes store is there to sell iPods, the AppleTV is there to sell iTunes video, and to "tick a box" so that people buying video for their iPods know there's an Apple-branded solution to show them on the big screen. Once the online video market has "come of age" (which will also need a bit of a revolution in broadband availability & capacity) Apple might get serious about the AppleTV.
(*Of course, iTunes the software doesn't force you to buy your media from iTunes, the store - it will happily rip audio CDs, accept MP3s and unprotected AACs from any source - legal or otherwise - and a google for "rip DVD to iTunes" produces a heap of solutions: if you know Bittorrent you probably know Google)