Crunching the Math On iTunes

markmcb writes "OmniNerd has posted an interesting article about the statistical math behind iTunes. The author makes some interesting observations concerning the same song playing twice in a row during party shuffle play, the impact that star ratings have on playback, and comparisons with plain old random play (star ratings not considered)." From the article: "To test the option's preference for 5-stars, I created a short playlist of six songs: one from each different star rating and a song left un-rated. The songs were from the same genre and artist and were changed to be only one second in duration. After resetting the play count to zero, I hit play and left my desk for the weekend. To satisfy a little more curiosity, I ran the same songs once more on a different weekend without selecting the option to play higher rated songs more often. Monday morning the play counts were as shown in Table 1."

iTunes is a monopoly

[Anonymous Coward]

As a record store owner, My business faces ruin. CD sales have dropped through the floor. People aren't buying half as many CDs as they did just a year ago. Revenue is down and costs are up. My store has survived for years, but I now face the prospect of bankruptcy. Every day I ask myself why this is happening.

I bought the store about 12 years ago. It was one of those boutique record stores that sell obscure, independent releases that no-one listens to, not even the people that buy them. I decided that to grow the business I'd need to aim for a different demographic, the family market. My store specialised in family music - stuff that the whole family could listen to. I don't sell sick stuff like Marilyn Manson or cop-killer rap, and I'm proud to have one of the most extensive Christian rock sections that I know of.

The business strategy worked. People flocked to my store, knowing that they (and their children) could safely purchase records without profanity or violent lyrics. Over the years I expanded the business and took on more clean-cut and friendly employees. It took hard work and long hours but I had achieved my dream - owning a profitable business that I had built with my own hands, from the ground up. But now, this dream is turning into a nightmare.

Every day, fewer and fewer customers enter my store to buy fewer and fewer CDs. Why is no one buying CDs? Are people not interested in music? Do people prefer to watch TV, see films, read books? I don't know. But there is one, inescapable truth - Internet piracy is mostly to blame. The statistics speak for themselves - one in three discs world wide is a pirate. On The Internet, you can find and download hundreds of dollars worth of music in just minutes. It has the potential to destroy the music industry, from artists, to record companies to stores like my own. Before you point to the supposed "economic downturn", I'll note that the book store just across from my store is doing great business. Unlike CDs, it's harder to copy books over The Internet.

A week ago, an unpleasant experience with pirates gave me an idea. In my store, I overheard a teenage patron talking to his friend.

"Dude, I'm going to put this CD on the Internet right away."

"Yeah, dude, that's really lete [sic], you'll get lots of respect."

I was fuming. So they were out to destroy the record industry from right under my nose? Fat chance. When they came to the counter to make their purchase, I grabbed the little shit by his shirt. "So...you're going to copy this to your friends over The Internet, punk?" I asked him in my best Clint Eastwood/Dirty Harry voice.

"Uh y-yeh." He mumbled, shocked.

"That's it. What's your name? You're blacklisted. Now take yourself and your little bitch friend out of my store - and don't come back." I barked. Cravenly, they complied and scampered off.

So that's my idea - a national blacklist of pirates. If somebody cannot obey the basic rules of society, then they should be excluded from society. If pirates want to steal from the music industry, then the music industry should exclude them. It's that simple. One strike, and you're out - no reputable record store will allow you to buy another CD. If the pirates can't buy the CDS to begin with, then they won't be able to copy them over The Internet, will they? It's no different to doctors blacklisting drug dealers from buying prescription medicine.

I have just written a letter to the RIAA outlining my proposal. Suing pirates one by one isn't going far enough. Not to mention pirates use the fact that they're being sued to unfairly portray themselves as victims. A national register of pirates would make the problem far easier to deal with. People would be encouraged to give the names of suspected pirates to a hotline, similar to TIPS. Once we know the size of the problem, the police and other law enforcement agencies will be forced to take piracy seriously. They have fought the War on Drugs with skill, so why not the War on Piracy?

This evening, m

Ok...

[jim_v2000]

So from this we learn that the random play on iTunes really is random, and that rating a song really does have an effect. Who'd a thunk?

Next, "iTunes really does play tunes!"

Reminds me of...

[Anonymous Coward]

the time my 2G iPod seemed to have a liking for the Aphex Twin's Selected Ambient Works Vol. 2. It was playing a track off it pretty much every other song. Those of you who know the album can appreciate that it's not the kind of music that you'd maybe choose as everyday listening material.

It became so annoying that I ended up removing the album from iTunes, at which point my iPod promptly died. The replacement was big on Roxy Music IIRC...

that sucks

[Anonymous Coward]

I can't tell you how many Christian record stores I'm permanently banned from.

Finally

[Ed Thomson]

Someone to show how cool mathematics is

Re:Interesting

[Feanturi]

A public moderation system, cool. That never gets abused anywhere that I know of.

Re:iTunes is a monopoly

[Anonymous Coward]

May The Cloo(TM) be with you!

Re:Ok...

[TheGavster]

All lies! The play order is too complex to occur naturally; there must be some intelligence that selects the order of the songs!

And, of course, looking into the origins of said intelligence is blasphemy.

something i've noticed

[macsox]

there definitely seems to be some time-based randomness in the selection of tunes. often, i'll hear a song pop up randomly on my ipod in the car on the way into work, and then the song come up again, randomly, while being played on itunes at my desk.

Re:Car has a "random" bug

[bullitB]

(from bugzilla.audi.com)

Product: Audi S4
Component: CD Player
Status: ASSIGNED
Severity: Normal
Hardware: All
OS: All
Resolution: Not a bug
Summary: Car has a "random" bug

Description:
I have a certain CD that causes my Audi S4 (when set to random mode) to play the same track over and over and over. Guess somebody didn't prove their recurrence actually worked.

Solution:
CD contains only one track. Random mode functioning properly.

Re:Why Assume a Bell Curve?

[Moofie]

Did Geddy Lee touch you in your bathing suit place?

Re:Car has a "random" bug

[Anonymous Coward]

How many of you were as geekily optimistic as me, and actually tried going to "bugzilla.audi.com"?

Car mp3 CD player

[suitti]

Two years ago, i replaced my car's tape player, which died after only 15 years of service, with an MP3 CD player. I cut a CD with 14 hours of my favorite stuff. I put the CD in the car, set it up to play in shuffle mode, and set out on a cross country trip. It was great. Just before i arrived, i heard a repeat. I was so disgusted i hit the eject button. Fortunately, i had another disc with me. Feh, i said. Can't even go 750 miles without having to change the CD.