iPod Jr. Rumors Become More Substantial

sdimbert writes "Rumors of a new, smaller, "iPodJr" have been floating around the Rumor Sites for a few weeks (as well a here at Slashdot). But now, the rumors have gained credibility and become more substantial. London's Evening Standard reports today (30 Dec 03) that "Apple has announced a cut-price mini version" of the iPod, "costing 65 [~115 USD], which will be able to store 800 songs." Despite the assertion that Apple "announced" the product, there is no mention of it at their official News Page or their product page for the iPod."

Aiming at the low end

[netwiz]

This is going to pretty much kill in the low end
Flash-based player market. I was looking at Fry's this weekend, and everything in the $49-99 range only came w/ 128MB, upgradeable to 640. Even assuming that the low-end Apple mini-iPod is only 1-2GB, it's got those other players beat by a mile, and hey, it works w/ iTunes!

I'm really looking forward to next year :)

The Evening Standard?

[Alan Partridge]

They don't even understand LONDON, you can't expect them too understand APPLE.

If you're looking for NEWS in the Evening Standard, you're looking in the wrong fucking place.

Press Release

[Arc04]

I want to know how the Evening Standard know about it, without Apple releasing a press release. And if Apple have released a press release, then why isn't it listed on their site?

Maybe someone at the Evening Standard is a /. regular and just nicked it from the earlier story.

Probaby some fab time involved

[idiotnot]

Gotta ramp up the production before you make the announcement. I have a feeling that these will sell very quickly.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[bwalling]

This is going to pretty much kill in the low end
Flash-based player market. I was looking at Fry's this weekend, and everything in the $49-99 range only came w/ 128MB, upgradeable to 640. Even assuming that the low-end Apple mini-iPod is only 1-2GB, it's got those other players beat by a mile, and hey, it works w/ iTunes!

I just got a 10GB iPod for Christmas. If it were not given to me, I would never have purchased it. I have wanted an iPod since they were announced, but $300 is more than I think an MP3 player is worth. I looked at the sub $100 MP3 players several times, but none of them were as good as the iPod. It's just not even close (even when you ignore the storage capacity). If Apple truly delivers this product (1GB iPod for $100), it will be a smashing success. I think that I am not alone in looking for a low end iPod (of course, I'm looking no more).

First "announced", then "expected to unveil"

[burgburgburg]

Interesting how something that is initially described as fait accompli is then described as "expected to unveil".

I'm not saying Apple isn't going to have them. I'm just saying this is another glorified rumor (or rumour since it's a UK site).

Re:Aiming at the low end

[the Man in Black]

Bah, just use DVDs instead

When you can get me a DVD recorder/MP3 player that fits in my pocket, costs $100, and is super simple to use via iTunes, then sure, I'm all over it.

In the meantime though, my money goes to the R&D demigods over at Apple. The fact that it's miniature firewire storage ALONE would make it worth a hundred bucks to me, but it's also designed by the current most successful and easy to use mp3 player?

We all know how this will end.

[shumacher]

It's gonna look like heaven in thermoplastic, and everyone here is going to want one.

What makes no sense is the timing. When a mainstream site makes an assertion about this sort of thing Apple is usually within days of release. If that were the case, why not launch before christmas.

I don't think we'll see this for some time. Previous rumors put stripes and patterns on the case. I suspect we'll see a Pepsi branded model some time in Feburary.

Super keen idea we'll probably never see:
Use the printing technology used on the blue dalmation and flower power iMacs, and tie in with iPhoto to let buyers have their photos molded into the case of their mini-ipod, rather than just simple laser engraving.

*ahem*. rumour press.

[Amiga Lover]

Apple has announced hey? Despite not owning them, I remember when the press said apple has "announced" 68060 based macs. I remember when apple "announced" that their games machine was selling in the US market. I remember when they "announced" the release of a PPC 620 64-bit mac.

"announced" in quotes simply because the press want to get it right before anyone else, and throw guesses and suppositions around regarding beta or even non existent hardware.

Re:We all know how this will end.

[mccalli]

When a mainstream site makes an assertion about this sort of thing Apple is usually within days of release.

Job's keynote speech is January 6th.

If that were the case, why not launch before christmas.

Pure guess on my part, but I'd suggest in order to shift stock of their high-margin existing players. Happy to hear better ideas though if someone has them.

Cheers,
Ian

Re:Aiming at the low end

[Ziviyr]

Commercial success isn't tightly linked with having a good product, and deification often leads to disillusionment.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[Frymaster]

you are exactly the target market apple is gunning for.

the ipod has been out for a while now and given its fairly long use-life just about everybody who was willing to get one at $300 has probably done so already.

now apple is gunning to pick up the people who wanted one but balked at the price point. kinda like publishers who put out the hardcover for the the $30 crowd and then eight months later release a paperback for the $7 folks.

Great Price Point?

[rocketjam]

When the original iPods came out, people complained that the price was too high and no one would buy one. The iPod's success shows there are a lot of people with more disposable income than the critics thought. Still, $300 - $400 is more money than many people could afford/justify for an mp3 player. A $100 price point would make it much more attractive to middle-income people. I think I can probably rationalize the purchase of a $100 mp3 player to myself ;-) (especially an iPod).

Re:Aiming at the low end

[netwiz]

Except that you lose the option of having playlists, the player requires more power per song played (the DVD's gonna have a _way_ higher rotational moment of inertia, so spinup and spindown are more costly), and it's still not as iTunes-compatible. Sure, the hypothetical DVD-player could still use iTunes, but now that we're up to a DVD-player, it's _going_ to be more expensive, esp. considering most of the rumors are fora sub-$100 device.

And CDs have the same playist issues, along with lesser capacity.

# Songs

[_aa_]

I dislike the "# Songs" metric (1GB = 200 songs). I understand that a portion of the demographic they're targeting might not know what a megabyte represents, but undoubtedly it's a small percentage of their target market. 800 Songs means little to me, as many songs I listen to are 10 or 15 minutes long. Some songs might be no more than 30 seconds. I also may want to store some songs at higher or lower bitrates than others. Given all the variables that vary within a "Song", I'd rather discuss the exact data capacity in Bytes.

1.44mb Floppy = 0.3 songs
250mb Zip Disk = 50 songs
650mb CD = 130 songs
4.7gb DVD = 940 songs

Re:Aiming at the low end

[abacsalmasi]

A $100 minipod is definately a possibility either with a Flash a HD based system but my money is on a HD system with more or less the same look and feel as the original iPod. Apple isn't going to bring to market a product that lacks in design, usability, and ease of use. That's just not Apple. This might be a historacle moment for Apple, releasing something price competitive. I think Steve took a business course this summer and realised that they have such a good product on their hand that HE even knows he has to play the game. A 1" 2-4 G cheap HD seems very likely, it's already being done, and I am sure that Steve could convince some company to let them go at a good price because of the demand that exists for the iPods. He's got a lot of barganing chips and he'll use them. Remember, this is a guy who convinced the stingy money-sucking music whores to get on board with his idea and now look what happend. Coke and Walmart music stores? C'mon, what's next, a Staples or Home Depot online store? I think people are going to fall in line with Mr. Steve, he's proven time and time again that he can change the world of digital media wether it be through computers, software, or peripherals. Apple is always the first ones on the field ready to play, they might not make the most money, but they start the game. Why wouldn't a company take a chance and be the first to market with them, best price, best product, and dominate, all for a little price break on HD's? People believe in him now, and his reality distortion field. Hi mom.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[netwiz]

No, it won't. But I still don't get playlists. I don't get full iTunes compatibility. I've got less capacity than the rumored 2GB unit, and I have to change disks. I've also got to haul around a honking gigantic (by comparison) CD-player that doesn't fit in any pocket I own.

Those features are enough to justify another fifty bucks.

iCarPod

[vida]

This has to be next obvious step to take. There are no decent, fairly priced, good looking, easy to install mp3 players for the car.

If not a full player, maybe just an iPod dock w/ a led that you could permanently install in the car, and just plug (insert) your iPod in.

Just wonder how much time it will take...

-Facun.

Doesn't really make sense to me.

[Sans_A_Cause]

If your higher capacity iPods are selling like mad (and they are) then why cut into those sales and profits by introducing a cheaper model? I don't think Apple makes much money off iTunes, so the % profit off the iPod is where the money is, and a smaller HD model would bring in fewer profits. Maybe it would make sense when the demand for the iPod dropped, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

any color you like, as long as it's black

[Doc Ruby]

What is it with these fixed-capacity mobile devices? Why can't I upgrade the storage of this iPod Jr. to store more than 800 songs? Why can't I upgrade the iPod with a bigger HD? These devices are tapping the consumer desire to do whatever we want with the stuff we buy, like our CDs. Why stop with the data, when we can buy flashROM and HDs ourselves?

What will we lose?

[truffle]

I seriously doubt the $115 iPod will look exactly like the 10gb model, but with a smaller hard drive (and form factor). It makes sense that the $115 iPod will lack some of the features that the higher end models have. This will better enable apple to upsell people to higher end iPods, and believe me, they want to do that.

So what could we potentially lose from the iPod?
- Firewire. It seems unlikely apple would cut their technology from a product, but this is something obvious to cut. These cheapo iPods are going to be heavily focussed on iTunes users, which are largely windows based. USB could be good enough.
- Built in rechargable battery. A good way to lower production cost is to make the unit require conventional batteries.
- The unit interface. The iPod's screen and dial for selecting music are great. A good way to cut production cost would be to remove these features.

In summary, my expectation is that apple will design their iPod jrs without many of the features which we have come to expect from iPod products. This will lower their production costs, and provide additional motivation for people to buy higher priced units.

Apple doesn't need to provide any of these features to sell iPod Jrs, the larger storage capacity, iTunes, and apple chic design will ensure these things just fly off the shelves.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[oscast]

"This might be a historacle moment for Apple, releasing something price competitive." All of Apple's hardware (and software) is price competitive. Apple simply doesn't sell low-end cheapy products, but of the products they do sell... they are VERY price competitive.

Re:We all know how this will end.

[Hollinger]

Another point is that I'm betting Apple wouldn't be able to keep up with demand if they started selling them. $100(ish) is a VERY important price point for lots of people. It's a heck of a lot easier to rationalize a $100 investment rather than a $300 investment. If such a machine is produced, it'll sell almost as quickly as the iTMS sold it's first tracks, if Apple releases it with a big enough splash.

Look at some of the past product releases (pick a keynote, any keynote): The product is announced, and ordered are taken immediately after the keynote. Orders for higher end models are backordered and "expected to ship in ____." Something very similar might have happened if Apple released this device over a month ago (actually it would have had to have been 2 months ago to get volume up to hit Black Friday and make holiday shipments, in all liklihood). It makes sense to release it now, since they get to couple this with the Pepsi Superbowl spots, and they get all year to roll up production, release a point update for the iPod, iTMS, and iTunes itself, letting the product reach critical mass (if it hasn't already) in time for *next* year's holiday season.

Of course I don't have the foggiest idea what I'm talking about! This is slashdot!

Re:any color you like, as long as it's black

[Hollinger]

Out of curiousity, have you ever looked at the guts of, say, a laptop vs. a desktop? How about actually opening up an iPod? How good are you with a screwdriver and a magnifying glass? Furthermore, where are you going to find the drives capable of fitting in these devices? The reason these are not upgradable is that each device is carefully custom-designed (thanks Johnathon!) pushing the absolute limit of "how much stuff can we cram in this tiny space." If you wanted an upgradable device, you can certainly build one with off the shelf parts -- it's called a PC.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[overunderunderdone]

I disagree, to some degree Apple's premium pricing as a marketing strategy is making a virtue out of necessity. Apple computers are a niche product, they lost the option of true mass marketting and big marketshare years ago. When the PC market exploded they chose to maintain their fat profit margins rather than maintaining or even expanding their market share - it's pretty clear that it was the wrong decision. They hauled in the cash for a while but they became more and more a niche player. At this point they're stuck in that niche. Cutting their margins to the bone wouldn't produce that many new customers.

The MP3 player market is a whole new ball game, and a second chance. Apple is again the market leader in an emerging market (just as they were in the long ago days of the Apple II). This time I think they are going to go for marketshare. They have to maintain the quality that people expect from the brand, and for that reason they're ever going to go for the very bottom of the bargain barrel. But if they can use superior industrial design/engineering and relationships with vendors to beat their competitors on price while still delivering high quality they are going to go for it.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[javatips]

If you can afford to buy enough songs to fill the extra 10G, you can surely afford a new iPod!

(I'm being generous with file size)

10G/7M = 1428 songs * .99$ = 1413.72$

Re:any color you like, as long as it's black

[Doc Ruby]

I've got a half-dozen minitowers here in my office that I've re/built over the years, as well as several "up on blocks in the yard". There's a couple of notebooks I've kept on lifesupport over the years by netbooting, running "headless", etc. after scavenging them for parts or pushing them over the edge with overzealous experiments inside their cases. I remember building my first phone, with a rotary dial, and hooking it up to my stereo as a mic'ed speakerphone. Apple is getting the HDs from somewhere, as are the even more COTS-oriented MP3 players, not to mention TiVOs. You give a reason there's no upgrade to the edge-cutting new devices. But is that reason good enough? There's no privilege for being a HW engineer, when the component industry is globally competitive in every sales channel, and so many of us are good with a screwdriver and a magnifying glass, and even at publishing HOWTOs on the Web.

Re:Hard Drive

[h0mer]

I think it works more like this...

miniPod to get you buying songs from iTMS.
Buy a bunch of songs from iTMS, until they no longer fit on the miniPod.
Buy an iPod to be able to fit all the music.
Buy a G5 because you've taken a hit of that Mac crack and can't turn back.
World domination.

Re:Aiming at the low end

[tapin]

The trick isn't buying enough to fill the extra 10G, it's buying enough that the initial 10G isn't enough.

Put another way, it's that first byte after 10G that's expensive. The rest is dirt cheap.

Re:No way

[MrAngryForNoReason]

I have a feeling a mini ipod could be subsidized by the larger ipods in an effort to get more users for the itunes music store. Get those users hooked on it and later on they may consider the larger player or at least continue using the music store.

I really don't think apple would be selling a new player at a loss in order to make people use iTunes again at a loss, so they can have a slightly higher chance of selling more iPods. It could increase sales of iPods when people upgraded, but not by anywhere near enough to make it a valid strategy.

Re:Why the hell would anyone buy this?

[SengirV]

You are seriously out of touch with reality. Use me as an example

I have approx 2.5 gigs of music. My collection is pretty stagnant. I do not want a 10+gig iPod because I will never fill it with music. I already have a portable firewire drive so I don't really need the iPod for that. I can not justify paying $300+ for a super walkman, but I would pay $100-$150 for one.

Also, I know my neices and nephews will ALL get one of these $100 miniPods(if true). They currently do now own a single iPod between them. Sounds like a lot of sales/desires met with this miniPod.