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Apple's Life After Steve Jobs
Posted by
CmdrTaco
on Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:59 AM
from the cut-the-turtleneck-budget-in-half dept.
from the cut-the-turtleneck-budget-in-half dept.
animusCollards writes "Slate ponders a post-Steve Jobs Apple, including possible successors, and the future is... boring. '..it's certainly true that Jobs' style is central to the company's brand and the fierce connection it forges with its customers. His product announcements prompt hundreds of millions of dollars worth of free press coverage and whip up greater and more loyal fans, generating ever-greater interest in the company. ... At some point, all that will end. Jobs will eventually leave the company. There are no obvious plans for succession; in addition to Schiller, observers finger Tim Cook, Apple's COO, and Scott Forstall, who helped develop Mac OS X and the iPhone's software, as contenders for the job. But Tuesday's keynote illustrated how difficult it will be for any of those guys to replace Jobs.'"
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Jobs leaving? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:5, Insightful)
So a post-Jobs Apple will be 'boring'? Nowhere near as boring as the constant stream of articles about a post-Jobs Apple thinks this AC.
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Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't have anything against him or Apple itself, but people need to calm down the Steve Jobs worshipping.
If they do that, they'll lose their jobs (no pun intended)!
The man may ooze style (if that's what you call the shiny, "world of tommorow" look of the iWorld), but he's a helluva narcissist.
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Pixar to the rescue (Score:5, Funny)
Why do you think Jobs bought Pixar? to make cartoons? No they are working to cross the uncanny divide where live action animated figures are indistinguishable from humans. They will just have an all digital Jobs up there in a few years presenting the products and you will never know.
Indeed maybe they already have. Jobs maybe is not ill but actually just an early version like Tom Hanks in Polar express.
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Re:Jobs leaving? (Score:4, Funny)
Head-in-a-jar; the iHead!
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Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)
How did Tuesdays Keynote illustrate 'how difficult it will be for any of those guys to replace Jobs.'? Just a bloggers opinion, nothing to see here, please move along
None of them look good in a black turtleneck. It's a little-known fact that Steve Jobs has not run Apple for some time now. Rather, the turtleneck is firmly in charge. If it can't find a suitable host when Jobs kicks the bucket, the company is doomed.
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Re:Really? (Score:4, Funny)
None of them look good in a black turtleneck.
That video engineer guy was sure trying, though. Pity about the Office Space obsession, though.
"I'm just gonna go ahead and..."
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Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Wow. I think you've seen one too many episodes of the X-Files.
You may turn in your geek card at the door.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)
And I thought it was a Spiderman/Venom joke. Clearly the turtleneck will seek out the man who hates Jobs most when he rejects it... Steve Ballmer.
I just got an image Steve Ballmer, dressed head to toe in black, dual-wielding heavy executive chairs and laughing maniacally... [shudder]
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Re:Really? (Score:4, Insightful)
Likely, for the same reason that it would be difficult for Collin Powell to replace Barack Obama: Powell isn't Obama, and does not have the rabid, awestruck fan base.
You can not replace people who have a cult built around them. Someone different has to replace the cult. I would expect any successful heir to Jobs' throne to radically change the Apple Image (tm) without any drastic underpinning changes. Black plastic instead of white, maybe? That's probably drastic enough for the demographic we're talking about.
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Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
We know who Steve Jobs is because we're nerdy, we follow things like Apple's keynote address and read
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Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)
They might be doing it on the merits, for fashion to follow the trends or whatever other reason but I seriously doubt it's due to a crush on a guy in a black turtleneck. Most people couldn't pick him out of a lineup.
You might be right, but the people who are setting the trend and extolling Apple's merits are those who do know who Jobs is. Apple can likely keep the position it has right now without Jobs, but if they can't replace his expertise, then they'll have a hard time expanding their product line like they've done in the past few years. Steve Jobs has an amazing ability to relate to the crowd, he's good at producing soundbites so he can relate to people on the internet, and he's already cultivated an image of excellence that's largely linked to the man himself.
Whether the average consumer knows it or not, the people that make the decisions and recommendations know who Steve Jobs is, and it's undoubtedly helped with their success.
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Jobs keynote technique (Score:4, Funny)
"... so at Apple, we thought, what's the next step? Where does data storage go from here? And our engineers told us: Atoms! We're going to build the data directly into the molecular structure!"
"And here's what they gave us."
(Holds up object. Crowd ooohs, awestruck.)
(A spotlight high behind Jobs shines on Job's upraised right hand, gleaming off the surface of what appears to be a shiny black disclike object, hypnotising the crowd.)
"As you can see, the new product has no straight lines, and no corners. And for data registration purposes, it has (Jobs suddenly tilts the object, back, allowing the spotlight to pick out a gleaming white spot at the disk's centre) ... a Hole!"
(crowd gasps)
"Notice how the Hole is at the EXACT centre of the disc. Not on the left. Not on the right. Our engineers told us that this placement was a critical feature for the playback process. So that's where we put it. Right in the middle."
(crowd cheers, until Jobs put up a hand signifying that he wants them to stop)
(hushed tones) "This is not just a nice looking object. This is a truly BEAUTIFUL object. You could hang this on your wall. Notice how the surface gleams. We could have made this out of cheap plastic ... but no. We decided to manufacture this out of the finest carbon-blacked Vinyl."
(crowd whoops)
"Now, wait until you see this brand-new user interface. We place the "disc" onto the "turntable", and the disc rotates AUTOMATICALLY. We place the arm anywhere on the disc. Anywhere at all!"
(music plays)
(Jobs lists the arm and puts it down somewhere else.)
(music plays)
(Jobs repeats, looking up at the audience and grinning each time)
"Now, isn't that just the Coolest thing you ever saw?"
(Audience applauds wildly)
"Now, how'll we be selling these. Well, we'll be packaging them in a special two-layer format that we call a "sleeve" ..."
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Steve Jobs should be followed by multiple people. (Score:5, Insightful)
Agreed. RDF exaggerated.
Jobs is remarkable in that he Part product visionary, part perfectionist taskmaster, part marketing guru, and part charismatic showman.
But more is made of his lesser role as showman than is warranted. I seriously doubt anything more than 10% of Apple product owners have ever even watched a Keynote. Steve Jobs charisma is nice for the free press it gets them but little else. If they keep building good products and doing half decent marketing there will be no problem. I don't watch the keynotes, but read about them. I was disappointed because there was no Mac Mini, not because Jobs wasn't there.
But in my opinion the greater loss might be in the loss of Steve Jobs the product visionary with the right measure of taskmaster.
I don't think these roles can be filled at a post Jobs Apple by one person. The probably need at CTO visionary/taskmaster + CEO-Showman. The should be figuring Steves roles in the company and how they can interact if those roles are split among different people. At some point the should staff all the roles and let Jobs supervise them, but let them run with it, but only if he feels that he is planning to leave sooner rather than later.
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Re:Really? (Score:4, Interesting)
Well, someone other than just Mac fans must be buying Macs, since their yearly sales growth continues to outpace the growth of the computer industry at large.
You can assume that your standard Mac fanbase is buying as normal, but even they don;t have infinite purchasing power, or the ability to keep the growth in sales of Macs above that of PCs - if your userbase isn't expanding, you're not really going to see that sort of growth, especially in the turbulent financial environment.
It's anecdotal, but I introduced my friends to Mac when they upgraded their machines, but only when they were ready for it (ie, they were getting a new computer anyway). The lump-sum purchase of a new machine makes the uptake (and the risk of a platform switch) take a little bit longer, compared to an iPod or an iPhone.
Apple is in a *great* position with the iPhone and I can only see it driving more people to the Apple store for a Mac - using an iPhone is joy (mostly, and for most people) and works in a very "mac like way". A proportion of the people using it are going to want that same experience from their home machine, and the Mac is right there for them when they are ready.
I'm sure there is an element of the subculture, or 'cult' of Apple surrounding their products (I'm likely part of it since I waited in line at the first UK Apple store in Birmingham and I was about the 20th person inside), but you're going to see that sort of culture around any popular and "cool" product (or even not so cool - take a look at the Morris Marina club, or the Morris Minor club). Apple's club may be large, but I don't just have several Mac computers because that's what's expected of me, and put up with deficiencies in the product I use because it really must be Apple - I use Macs because they do everything I want them too (mostly) and are far more pleasant than the alternative.
To head off the "you can do it all for free with Linux and not have to deal with the heathen non-totally-OSS operating system" types, I have installed Ubuntu 8.10 on one of my Powerbooks, rather than upgrading it to OS X 10.5 and am currently looking at how well I can get Ubuntu and OS X to work for me as a multi-OS home environment. I have no Windows boxes anywhere in the house.
As a closer, I'll just add that while I'm probably the typical Mac fanboy (I have multiple Macs, have an iPod, buy music on iTunes, looking at changing to an iPhone when my phone contract is up, use Apple-designed peripherals rather than cheaper alternatives [bluetooth keyboard, igloo airport base station etc), I'm not totally blinded by the Apple cult - I dislike the Finder with the passion of a thousand burning suns because it sucks, I won't buy Time Capsule because it also sucks and I really would be buying the brand over quality/value if I did. I'm not going to just swallow that because it;s almighty Apple. However, at least the Finder is better than Explorer for windows (or whatever the file manager is called on vista nowadays).
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Re:Really? (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)
You can not replace people who have a cult built around them. Someone different has to replace the cult.
Not entirely true.
Sure, I was upset when I had to remove my Tom Baker figure from my shrine and replace it with Peter Davidson. It was painful again when I took Peter down and put up Colin Baker. Recently I had to remove Christopher Eccleston and put up David Tennant, who'll I'll be removing soon again.
It hurts every time - Regeneration is a painful process. But I'm still a loyal cult member.
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No one lives for ever ... (Score:5, Insightful)
While stock owners of companies like Apple or Berkshire Hathaway may wish their CEO's could like forever. Jobs while "great" is still a double edged sword for Apple. Granted one side is sharper than the other at the moment.
But a less charismatic person could make different decisions that get Apple way more into the main stream. I could go on, but work is busy today.... :-(
Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:5, Insightful)
But a less charismatic person could make different decisions that get Apple way more into the main stream.
Like Dell or Gateway?
No, thanks.
-jcr
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Re:No one lives for ever ... (Score:5, Insightful)
But a less charismatic person could make different decisions that get Apple way more into the main stream.
Like Dell or Gateway?
No, like John Scully.
No, thanks.
More, like, NO THANKS! Scully's time at Apple was disastrous. While everyone at the time said that "mainstream" line was the best strategy for Apple.
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I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:4, Interesting)
I don't know if it was just a lack of Jobs or a lack of innovation, but this was the first one of these that really lacked something new and fresh. Quite frankly none of it excited me this round.
Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:5, Interesting)
The rumor sites were expecting practically everything including the kitchen sink, so by failing to introduce new iMacs, new Mac minis, the iPhone nano and... did I miss anything?, Apple didn't live up to their (completely delusional) expectations.
What really gets me is tech news sites - even MacWorld - calling the 17" MacBook Pro "disappointing" or "unattractive" because it's just a larger-form-factor MBP. Uh... hasn't it always been? Haven't the 15" and 17" always been pretty similar internally? And it's got this spiffy new battery made with Romulan technology, and anti-glare screens are back, and oh, yeah, there's a third USB port, woohoo.
It's funny, though - Apple is such a style cult, and has such a following, that the 17" MBP is being judged against... what, exactly? People's delusional expectations, apparently. Because it's not "disappointing" or "unattractive" when you compare it with every other 17" notebook in existence, is it? 1920x1280, check. 2.93GHz processor option, check. 256GB SSD option, check. Up to 8GB of RAM, check. 1066MHz FSB, check. 802.11n, check. ExpressWhatever, check. FW800, check. Dual video chipsets, check.
Yeah, I can probably get all those features somewhere else (though a fair bit of googling wasn't exactly productive)... but in a package under 25mm thick and under 3kg, with at least the potential for 8 hours of battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit. Doesn't sound so "disappointing" or "unattractive" to me.
And really, the MBPs won't be fully exploited until Snow Leopard and OpenCL drop, right?
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Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:5, Insightful)
"with at least the potential for 8 hours of battery life"
Every laptop I ever owned clamied similar, and usually turned itself off after around the 2 hours 45 minutes mark.
But what amazes me, is that the battery is non-removable, so if it shorts or has some other problem, back to the approved iMac store for Joe Fanboi, and another whopping bill for service.
Doesn't the fact that Apple even lock you in on the battery tell you anything ?
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Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:4, Informative)
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Re:I for one was pretty let down with this keynote (Score:5, Insightful)
I can't believe that the removal from DRM from the iTunes music store isn't bigger news. I think it's huge news. This is the single biggest remaining reason why people are nervous about moving to downloaded music, and it's gone. I'm delighted.
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Re:Scheduling and Sales. (Score:5, Funny)
Cripes, it's as bad as DEFCON being held in fuck-me-its-hot August, where the traditional attire is all black.
Indeed. DEFCON is well known for having attendees that love the outdoors and are unable to operate AC units.
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Come On... (Score:5, Insightful)
How about we just leave it at this. Regardless of who takes over the company next I am sure we can all agree, regardless if you love or hate Apple, that he will probably be more stable and qualifed that the Chair Tossing Google Killer that took over that other really big tech company...
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
The only reason this keeps coming up is because so many remember the years when Jobs was not heading the company. I don't know about you, but I definitely don't want my future Apple computers looking like children's toys again.
Apple will be ruined by capitalism (Score:5, Insightful)
Say what you like about Apple (I usually do) but one thing that can't be denied is that Apple does what it does starkly in the face of existing trends and directions. They do it their own way regardless of whether or not the general consensus thinks it's a good idea.
This makes Apple a very popular trend setter and many people really like that about Apple.
This is made possible because Apple leadership is run by an asshole. And I don't mean that in a bad way either. Jobs does what he does from what appears to be pure inspiration. People just eat that up too. He is the Willy Wonka of the computer world.
There can't be another one... there will not be another one. Apple will become a blob of its former self and people will make decisions the way they feel most comfortable... incremental changes and improvements, following trends and very rarely will frighteningly new ideas get thrust into the limelight as they have been under Jobs.
But we will also see something that people have been begging for... something that competes HEAD to HEAD with Microsoft. And Apple will WIN.
Re:Apple will be ruined by capitalism (Score:5, Insightful)
I believe that would be rather errouneus. Apple isn't playing in Microsoft's sandbox. Particularly the Enterprise one. Too many big bullies there. Apple will be more than happy to play in it's metrosexual box with all the dolls and shiny things. Laughing all the way to the bank. Why does everybody think that Apple wants to deal with Enterprise issues?
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Re: (Score:3, Funny)
I, for one, welcome our new overlord egyptiankarim.
You know the economy is getting bad (Score:5, Funny)
I am the very model of a iPod fashion follower (Score:5, Funny)
I am the very model of an iPod fashion follower,
My waist is getting thinner but my head is getting hollower,
I know the name of every Mac, in Apple stores a wallower,
And at the MacWorld every year I tell Steve I'm a swallower.
(Yes at the MacWorld every year he tells Steve he's a swallower)
Apple is Safe. (Score:4, Funny)
The simple solution (Score:4, Interesting)
There is a simple solution: just follow the mac rumour sites and skim the ideas which make sense (physical, technological, ergonomic, etc.) and turn them into products. Voila, instant fan-inspiring advertising, for free..
Part of me wonders if that isn't what they've been doing for the last couple years.
Of course, that's depending on whether Apple lasts. Apple has always ridden on top of the financial waves, so to speak, by catering to the upper financial strata... That strata might not be around much longer, and younger people, for the most part, don't regard computer differences with quite as much difference as we have in the past.
Unfortunately it does not work that way (Score:4, Insightful)
There is a simple solution: just follow the mac rumour sites and skim the ideas which make sense (physical, technological, ergonomic, etc.) and turn them into products.
There is a problem with that.
People tend to not know what they want. Noone demanded something like the iPhone.
The secret is to understand their wishes and offer them far more than what they've asked for.
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He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT? (Score:4, Interesting)
The problem with many firms (in IT especially Microsoft, Apple and Dell) is that they were built around their founders and really can't perform as a corporate culture without them. And without a vibrant corporate culture, the firm stagnates or fails. Commodore or Wang anyone?
USA Today ran a story on it a few months back... http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-08-21-founder-ceos_N.htm [usatoday.com]
Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT? (Score:5, Insightful)
They already are!
Apple used to OWN the video editing market. Final cut WAS the defacto standard.
Well come 2009 and we have no update. we cant author BluRay DVD's because apple bet the farm on HD-DVD so now our DVD authoring app is useless. My only choice is some crappy 3rd party apps (Yes adobe's offering is crap)
Apple is dragging it's feet in it's professional lines and it's causing them issues. They have been focusing completely on the "oooh shiney" general public and ignoring their professionals on the backend.
I want my FCP Suite 3 that fixes the problems with the current one and give me native suite bluray menu authoring.
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Re:He's done it before - anyone remember NeXT? (Score:4, Informative)
At least according to Apple their problems aren't technical, they can't figure out how to license this in a cost effective manner. I.E. the problem is really with Sony.
Don't know if it is true or not, but they have fairly specific in what the issues are. AFAIK the recommended solution is QuickTime to author the movie and then build the menus using a professional Hollywood system.
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Wait... Steve can die? (Score:3, Funny)
Steve Jobs has been dead since 1988 (Score:5, Funny)
Steve Jobs died in a car wreck in 1988. The current "Steve Jobs" is San Jose session musician, Roland Trisk. Trisk, who often doubled for Steve Jobs before his death in sales meetings and conferences, had plastic surgery in order closely resemble Jobs. There are hints everywhere-in the enclosure of the Mac LCII, the first NeXT CUBE, even Pixar's first full-length film, Toy Story. Wake up people! The truth is out there!
Difficult, not impossible, look at Scientology (Score:3, Interesting)
I love Macs, so this isn't disparagements or drawing Apple customers like a cult (perhaps corporate culture?). But Scientology had one of the most wacked out, eccentric, but strangle charismatic (to some people I suppose) founders. After his death, its not just thriving but even gets people like Will Smith hooked. It's headed by David Mascavige [wikipedia.org] although few people heard of him. I would argue that this state of Scientology is due purely to it's organizational structure rather than any one man.
Having a good leader will be important. But the corporate culture will have to be in place. I think Jobs is very talented, but his talent was letting the good ideas and people already in Apple (or outside, like NeXT) rise while he steered them towards this greater vision. I think Jobs has a very clear vision in some ways (he said back in 90s interview Sculley destroyed everything he sought to achieve), and when he expects to be leaving, he should write it in a book what it is - so that it can inspire his company towards it.
I think though, in the end, having a strong leader with a vision at the helm is what Apple as a company needs. What that means, is that they have to avoid putting in business men/accountants who only have the imagination to see the bottom line at the end of the day. But a pure artist is often equally disastrous with less business pragmatism. For instance, Steve was inspired by a previous calligraphy class to put extra effort in fonts in Macintosh. Most pure business men wouldn't have bothered at the time. Reading his bio, he often obsesses about aesthetic appeal.
To nix the scientology thing from above, I could draw Apple as a design studio like Wiener Werkstatte or Bauhaus. Earlier last century, they made lots of distinctive but beautiful objects (Art Deco), going so far as to build entire houses and furnishing them. An integrated solution. On the downside, neither lasted long. It is the nature of such things, it seems. In another industry, perhaps Apple can be compared to Porsche and the father son team Ferdinand/Ferry porsche.... it survived but to me it's arguable that, while, the design spirit lives on, whether successive innovative spirit has since those two passed away.
No such thing (Score:5, Insightful)
First off, there is no such thing as "Replacing Steve Jobs", there is only following him.
ANYBODY who is trying to "duplicate" the Steve and his infamous RDF is going to fail, and miserably. In fact, if I was on the committee that was choosing the heir to the helm I'd ask how they plan to "replace" Jobs, and if anyone mentions anything other than .... "nobody can replace Steve" (or similar) is clearly not good enough to fill the vacancy.
People wanting to continue the mystique after Steve leaves is going to fail . There is only one Steve Jobs.
That doesn't mean that Apple will fail after Jobs, but rather, they need to find a new "leader", one that doesn't replace Steve, but rather one that mealy follows him.
Missing Option (Score:3, Funny)
Cloning
(Maybe that's what Obama meant when he said he was going to create "millions of Jobs")
I'd like to Apply for CEO of Apple (Score:5, Interesting)
Here are my qualifications:
Creating Fans By Attrition (Score:5, Interesting)
The admirers of Apple's cult of personality forget how it was created: Jobs drove away those who didn't fit his whims. He had the first Mac designed around his choices for the Apple II that Woz over ruled. The very act of creating it was purposely divisive, with a skull and crossbones flag flying over the Mac building, and non-Mac people barred from entry except by invitation. Rather than complimentary lines, the Mac was intended to supplant the very successful and projected to be long-lived Apple II (16 bit version in production, 32 bit processor, machine and OS in design phase). After Woz got fed up and left*, Jobs shut down the Apple II line. At every step people who'd been loyal employees, customers, third party manufacturers or fans fell away -- literally by the millions. More than once, to a lesser but significant extent, severe and abrupt changes to the Mac line instigated repeat performances of the II exodus. "Love it or leave it" seemed to be the corporate motto.
Jobs' cantankerous ways with the remaining employees, manufacturers and fans drove away so many, including major players and stock holders, that he was taken out of the spotlight and replaced by John Scully. It took a decade for him to grow up enough to be given back the reins.
Those remaining fans view Jobs as charismatic. Ex-fans remember him as anti-charismatic, and view him that way still if they even bother to think about him at all.
I've recounted these and similar details before, and gotten modded down as flamebait and troll. I expect the same to happen now, despite the fact that while it may be in somewhat negative phrasing, it's accurate and verifiable in media archives and others' writings. In the spirit of full disclosure, I was an Apple II fan in the extreme, was senior/technical editor of an Apple II fan-zine (The Road Apple; the first computer media source published simultaneously in the US and USSR), and said much these same things back then. But I'm not the only one who said them. I'm just one of the very few who still bothers to recount the history that most have ceased to care about.
* Woz left Apple primarily due to a re-examination of his life following a private plane accident. However, his displeasure at the direction of things was no secret, nor was Jobs' efforts to marginalize him. Between those, had he not had the accident, he'd almost certainly have left anyway.
Re:Creating Fans By Attrition (Score:5, Informative)
I think you got some details slightly wrong. If by Apple II decisions where Jobs lost to Woz you mean the expansion slots, then though Jobs was a vocal proponent of not having them on the Mac this feature was a fundamental aspect of Jef Raskin's proposal from the very beginning.
Woz was part of the Mac project when he had his accident, but it was indeed the treatment of the Apple II group that was one of his main reasons for leaving. He did come back a few years later and worked on the 16 bit IIgs. I am not aware of any serious plans for a 32 bit Apple II but would love to hear more about it.
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Re:Make a Steve Jobs simulator (Score:5, Funny)
Plus, it would create jobs!
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