Why the iPod is Losing its Cool

An anonymous reader writes "The Guardian Unlimited has a provocative article on the recent decline in iPod sales: 'Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"

60M sold? that's a lot.

[yagu (721525)]

From the article:

Although it has sold nearly 60 million actual iPods and a billion downloaded songs worldwide, cracks have begun to appear in the edifice.

There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).

Jobs (from Apple) isn't letting the grass grow ... with his

most ambitious iPod service yet - the sale of feature-length films via the internet for viewing on the devices, which may receive an expanded 'widescreen' and improved storage capacity. If downloading movies from a computer to an iPod proves even half as revolutionary as it did for music, the multibillion-pound DVD industry could be quaking.

As seen in a previous slashdot discussion (the Amazon Unbox article [slashdot.org]) on video download, it isn't going to happen, or is at least unlikely. There is a slew of articles and surveys showing consumers, especially the target demographic of "younger folk" aren't that interested in long (full length features) videos. Video downloads, management, etc., is just a messier beast for consumers, enough so it's a long way from emergent (storage considerations, price, quality of small devices, battery power for video, DRM, download times, backups, etc.).

Also, consumers are getting hip to the snake oil that is iTunes: (from the article)

..., We have heard from some conspiracy theorists that the batteries are made to die soon after the warranty ends.

'Other complaints are that iTunes [Apple's online music store] is overpriced and the format is not easily transferred on to other players. In our ethnography interviews, some long-time iPod-users told us that they have stopped updating their iPods because it's too much work, while other consumers who had bought iPods more recently had not even taken theirs out of the package to set it up.'

Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

This is the SONY walkman all over again, then the SONY CD walkman... it's done. It's hard to imagine quantum leaps of coolness and convenience beyond an iPod or video iPod. The curve had to level, there just isn't any there there. Apple should be happy with what they've done, but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[kamapuaa (555446)]

Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM. And DRM isn't anything at all new to iPod, either. There's no reason to assume the correlation that you take as a given. Any random anti-DRM screed is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should put in the extra work and have it at least make some kind of sense.

And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones, PDAs, and other random gadgets. I gotta believe it's the same in the US. Amazon may not be impressing people, but that has more to do with the price than the fundamental concept.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Soul-Burn666 (574119)]

In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.
Music, unlike video, requires only one sense (hearing) and can be passive while one is doing other things.
You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)

It can work though for people who travel a lot in public transportation.
That niche is partly filled by portable gaming which is also an activity that requires your attention.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[Seiruu (808321)]

You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)

Unless you're impotent, watching porn while jogging doesn't sound like a comfortable thing to do. Especially when you're wearing those jogging pants.

"Dude is that your....??"
"That's my ehm IPOD sticking out! That's right"

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[exp(pi*sqrt(163)) (613870)]

I agree. People don't buy music to listen to it. They buy music so that they can do something else and not get so bored doing it.

Portable movies pointless

[zoeblade (600058)]

In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.

I think you're right, and I think Apple knows this, which is probably why each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set. I suspect people will download videos via iTunes just so they can watch them on TV almost instantly, without the fuss of having to leave the house, probably ignoring whether they can watch them on their iPod or not.

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[jcr (53032)]

You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.

No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.

-jcr

Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better

[steve_bryan (2671)]

You need a special client to load it and it only loads AAC.

In your overbearing zeal you either don't know what you are talking about or you are lying. In addition to AAC files from iTMS you also have the choices of mp3, AIFF, and Apple lossless. That is just the audio music formats. You also have video and spoken audio (audio books) as choices. In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge.

Re:

[ElleyKitten (715519)]

Since iTunes, by default, rips your music to AAC (non-DRM'ed, unlike Windows Media Player rips to WMA), I think your statement is highly unlikely. Unless you're into that whole Ballmer "The most common type of music on iPod is stolen" mantra.

MP3s are not, by definition, stolen. Many people buy CDs and then rip them to MP3, or buy from EMusic or whatever. So I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of iPod music was MP3, and not copyrigh-infringed.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[7Prime (871679)]

You missed the point, again. iTunes, by default is set to import CDs to AAC (I forget which bit rate). Changing to mp3 requires the user to go into the scary "Advanced > Importing" tab in the preference pane. MANY people, if not most, don't even notice that their ripping to AAC instead of MP3, since they use the "import" button on their CDs instead of choosing the "Convert Selection to [whatever]" option. The point is, to switch to mp3s you have to:

1. Know that iTunes is NOT innitially setup to rip to MP3
2. Have a desire to switch from AACs to MP3s
3. Know how and where to switch the settings over, or have a desire enough to look it up in help

Only a very small segment of the population are going to go "out of their way" (even if it's a fairly small trip) to switch, and most don't even know it. By the time many people do realize that they're encoding AACs, they've been already working out fine for them on the iPod, so they have no real desire to switch. On top of that, when they DO get interested in learning the difference, they have the entire internet, as well as Apple Computer saying, "AACs are better than MP3s" (which they are).

So no, I would be willing to guess that a good 75% of ALL CD imported tunes on digital music players are AACs. The MP3 is dead, most people don't even know it.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[FyRE666 (263011)]

...DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).

You know I'm glad people are finally starting to realise they're being screwed in the ass by DRM. Over the last few months I've been asked various questions by (non technical) family, friends and colleagues that all involve DRM'ed content making things awkward, and not allowing them to do what they want with their legally bought music. I'm happy to tell them why they can't play their iTunes/Napster sourced music wherever they like; hopefully they'll wake up and see where their apathy has got them.

I then mention there are plenty of places people can get all the music they like without DRM, for nothing ;-) Personally I buy quite a lot of music (about 5-6 albums a week at times). Since the RIAA consider their customers, including me, to be criminals, I've decided to act like one. I burn, rip and share it, and give away copies to anyone who asks ;-) Ironically, if there were no DRM, I wouldn't act this way.

Re:60M sold? that's a lot.

[wasted time (891410)]

I burn, rip and share it, and give away copies to anyone who asks ;-)

Link please.

Re:

[msormune (808119)]

But when you're buing the unprotected CDs, you are eligible to transfer the contents to your own hard disk or what ever, IF THERE IS NO COPY PROTECTION. And regular CDs do not have such protection these days. And I am guessing you are not buying any protected CDs. So you are not acting like a criminal, until you actually distribute the ripped MP3s.
So you can burn and rip all you want, RIAA will not care. Just don't share.

Inevitable

[spikestabber (644578)]

Well we are speaking the inevitable here. No fad ever lasts forever.

Re:Inevitable

[gormanly (134067)]

Of course. Because the iPod only sold 1/3 more in both the first and second quarters than last year. But wait - it's down on last year's Christmas rush sales!!!! It's in decline!! The death of the iPod is here!!!!!!! Oh wait. WTF??

Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures. Or is that not cool any longer?

Humor on a Sunday

[Overly Critical Guy (663429)]

Want to read something funny in retrospect? Read Microsoft's Press Pass interview released to combat the press coverage when iTunes for Windows came out: Q&A: Choosing a Digital Music Service for Windows Users [microsoft.com].

It's one big advertisement given in the form of a staged interview with Microsoft's general manager of their Windows Digital Media Division. Revel in the humor as he gives choice quotes such as, "iTunes captured some early media interest with their store on the Mac, but I think the Windows platform will be a significant challenge for them." Or "With Windows Media 9 Series, you get faster starts, better quality music, and support for the most devices."

Tee-hee...

Making a prediction here

[Overly Critical Guy (663429)]

Honestly, all doom-and-gloom iPod discussion in this article is going to look silly after this Tuesday's media event by Apple, which is rumored to be offering new metal-enclosed nanos in multiple colors, new iPods, a cell phone, a video streaming device, and movie downloads from Disney (which also means studios like Miramax).

Let's sit back and enjoy the negative comments from iPod haters wanting to look really cool and outside-the-norm for bashing a popular piece of technology that's left them behind. After all, it's par for course around here--let's not forget the original iPod announcement or the iPod mini discussions which were oh-so-accurate in their future predictions. Ahem.

"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion

[AHumbleOpinion (546848)]

I'm sure the Apple faithful (*) will violently disagree, but the parent's use of the word "fad" is not poorly chosen. Recently local MBA students (**) in a marketing class surveyed hundreds of kids in local high schools regard digital music players. Stress "digital music players", they did not ask about iPod, they did not lead the respondents(***). The kids were pretty well informed, there was a lot of comparing and contrasting of various players at school. iPods were the most popular device, no surprise there, but there was a surprise. The most popular reason for choosing the iPod over competitors was fashion, a status symbol. It was not ease of use, although ease of use was identified as a category iPod wins in. For technology and features Creative was the winner, the lack of radio was a negative for the iPod.

The team that did the survey and focus groups was very quick to point out that this was just a class project, small scale and localized. However it was similar to a pilot program that found interesting results and could be used to justify a larger national study.

(*) I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems.

(**) Working professionals who have real jobs in industry, under the supervision of a marketing professor who does this sort of thing for rather large firms. This was a class project, not a consulting project.

(***) I was not involved in the project but did I sit in on the presentation of the results. My recollection is that the questions went something like:
Do you own a digital music player?
What models did you consider?
What model did you purchase?
Why did you purchase that model?
etc.

Ecosystem is what is important to me.

[guidryp (702488)]

I don't have one, I have an ancient 32K RCA K@zoo with 64mb SD card (the biggest it can handle) that I have not used in a while.

When I next upgrade it will be an Ipod, not because it is fashionable or faddish or popular, but because there is now a supporting ecosystem. Cars come with IPOD docks, you can get a cheap, nifty running package from Nike that tracks speed/distance while you are listening too music while your run.

In short I think it is the perfect choice for taking my music with me everywhere, moving seamlessly from jogging, to work, to driving cross country. I am just waiting for an 8Gig Nano to make the driving across country more feasable.

Running out of Customers??

[EEBaum (520514)]

Seems kinda obvious to me... we're running out of people who want one and don't have one already.

No surprise

[Lispy (136512)]

I think its a mixture of the DRM/format lock-in, regular market saturation and growing competition. Personally I think that the lack of on the fly recording is one of the many reasons why I would get another mp3-player and not an iPod. But lets wait for Apples Showtime event and then talk about it again. Steve might have something to fix the xmas sales.

Re:No surprise

[Overly Critical Guy (663429)]

I think its a mixture of the DRM/format lock-in, regular market saturation and growing competition.

The mainstream public absolutely doesn't give a crap about iTunes DRM. It's so lax that you never notice it's there (and when people bring up iTunes DRM as a negative point, in almost every case you find that they've never tried it themselves). Most people's music collections are made up of ripped MP3s anyway.

As for the other two points, market saturation and growing competition have been around since the iPod came out in 2001, so that's nothing new. The market was saturated when Apple came to the game, yet they still won (pissing Creative off something awful). It seems the company performs its best when people are assuming they're down for the count. For the last 20 years, armchair pundits have been claiming Apple was dead, their products weren't selling, that "saturation and growing competition" were going to take them out, and so on.

I don't get this pervasive need to always hope for Apple's demise all the time. Without them, it'd be all Microsoft, all the time, with the awful WMA-based "PlaysForSure" dominating your music players and turning them into the typical Microsoft experience--unreliable, weird bugs and quirks, a hundred ugly little pieces of hardware running Microsoft software with no seamless vertical experience like you get from Apple.

Look, new automobiles have freakin' iPod dock ports built into them. The iPod isn't going away anytime soon.

Personally I think that the lack of on the fly recording is one of the many reasons why I would get another mp3-player and not an iPod.

I assume you mean you want it built-in, because the iPod has had built-in recording functionality for years now, accessible with add-ons like the Griffin iTalk.

Duh

[Supersonic1425 (903823)]

it's basic business. product lifecycles are virtually all the same. launch, rise, saturation and decline. right now ipod reaching saturation, and it will go into decline sooner or later. that said, it is still very profitable for Apple, and the brand is still stupidly strong. it will most likely stay like that for a few more years at least.

this is news?

because one you buy one...

[josepha48 (13953)]

.. you don't need to have another one, unless the first one breaks. Its like TV's. You go out, buy a TV. For most people the next time they buy a TV is when their TV breaks. My TV's have lasted about 10+ years. I'd imagine that the iPod should last at least 3 years.

Re:You'll eventually need new Apple batteries

[rthille (8526)]

I don't use my iPod that often, but the battery has lasted fine since 2004-10. Even if I needed to replace twice already at ~$17 (seems to be the going rate for a 4th gen) I'd still be better off vs. buying AA batteries. Not to mention the environmental damage from using non-recharable batteries.

Gasp!

[Jerf (17166)]

Market not infinite. Film at 11.

What to worry about?

[Klaidas (981300)]

Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.

What's to worry about? IT WILL.
We had cassette walkmans popular. No more.
We had CD players popular. No more
We had mp3 players popular. No more
We have iPods popular. After some time, we will not.
That's how hardware, software and all the computing works. After some time we will be laughing at those iPods, because we will have something new.

Re:

[Overly Critical Guy (663429)]

We had PCs. We still do.
We had Nintendo Gameboys. We still do.
We had cell phones. We still do.
I could go on and on here.

We had mp3 players popular. No more

Huh? MP3 players are popular.

You guys have been predicting for five years now that the iPod was on its way out. I trust that prediction just as much as I trust the predictions you guys made when the iPod mini came out, or when the original iPod came out. Seriously, go back and read the discussion and laugh at how short-sighted people were.

Christmas

[Eightyford (893696)]

I think everyone knows that consumer electronics sell better around Christmas. Comparing holiday season sales to summer sales is like comparing apples to oranges...

News Flash!

[Ochu (877326)]

Analysts in turmoil over "people buy more at Christmas shock"!
Fireworks makers puzzle over mysterious early-summer surge in demand!
Sales of Bush/Cheney 04 bumper stickers down 100%!

Losing its cool?

[vistic (556838)]

The iPod is not uncool or unhip... the fad isn't over.

Look around, iPods are everywhere and everyone is happy.

If sales are declining it's just because we all already have one.

I personally have a 4th gen 20GB click-wheel iPod. The color screens, video, photos, nano sizes, &c. haven't been enough to make me set aside the iPod I have to get a new one for another few hundred dollars. My iPod works how I expect it to and I'm happy. I won't be upgrading probably until this iPod is either stolen or broken, which I hope won't even ever happen.

If Apple wants to make people buy a SECOND iPod even though their current iPod works fine, they're going to have to add some compelling new features. I'd buy an iPod phone probably. Not so much because I want my phone and MP3 player in one device (but it would be nice if done properly: one less thing to carry around), but my current Motorola phone is horrible and I have some confidence that Apple would actually make a great phone with a good user interface. Every user interface on every cell phone out there right now is pretty much horrible; Apple could do a lot in this area.

I might get some sort of cool iPod car stereo. (Currently, I connect my iPod using the headphone jack to the Aux. in on the back of my Sony car stereo using a cable I got from Radio Shack... I'm talking about a REAL iPod car stereo, like a car stereo with a hard drive and wireless so I can send songs to my car in the garage from my computer in the house.) Supposedly there may be a touch-screen iPod coming? A touch-screen alone won't get me to buy another.

But yeah, iPods are still cool. There is no backlash. All the other MP3 players still are lacking in one way or another. iTunes is still a great way to manage music on the computer. People are happy. Apple has done great.

According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr (53032)]

Q4 03: 336,000
  Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 04: 807,000
  Q3 04: 860,000
  Q4 04: 2,016,000
  Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 05: 5,311,000
  Q3 05: 6,155,000
  Q4 05: 6,451,000
  Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
  Q2 06: 8,526,000
  Q3 06: 8,111,000

We have yet to see a year-over-year decline in sales. It is of course to be expected, that pundits seeking attention will continue to troll with "the sky is falling" articles, just like we'll keep hearing about how every also-ran is an "iPod killer".

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr (53032)]

A product shows consistent quarter over quarter growth for five straight years.

Oh, for Pete's sake. You're not seeing the forest for the trees. Look at the YEAR over YEAR growth. I have, and I'm keeping my AAPL shares.

Wake the fuck up dummy.

I'm wide awake, which you clearly aren't.

-jcr

Re:According to MacDailyNews.com...

[jcr (53032)]

Do you have some kind of point you're trying to make? You claimed that the iPod is "overpriced", I debunked that claim, and now it looks like you're trying to argue against something I haven't said.

Apple has generally kept the price points steady, while expanding the iPod's capacity and capabilities over time. They've also introduced lower-cost versions of the product, going as low as $99. Because they're not going for the lowest possible cost, they're able to make it a far better-quality product than they could if they went for a Dell-style "race to the bottom" approach.

There is a science to pricing a product, and Apple's success with the iPod line shows that they're practicing it very well, indeed.

-jcr

Re:

[Killshot (724273)]

My point is if the downward trend in sales continues, the easiest way to ramp up sales is to lower prices, which is likely at some point.

good riddance!

[potpie (706881)]

Serves them right! My girlfriend cancelled on me a few times so she could stay home and play with her new ipod. Then she broke up with me. Rot in hell you vile yet stylish machinations of satan!

No new iPods in a long time...

[jdogg82 (765548)]

I think the last time any of the iPod models were updated was last fall. Sales will likely pick up again when there's a new and exciting iPod.

Eventually, yes. Now, no.

[eshefer (12336)]

this is really a crappy article.

14 million were sold in the crazy-buy-gifts-like-there-is-no-tomorow quarter. If you want to check trends you should look at corrosponding quarters , year over year growth [wikipedia.org].

  guess what? 25% gains year over year... expect apple to sell around 20 million Ipods in the the corrosponding quarter.

FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[Froomb (100183)]

The statistics cited by the anonymous contributor are deliberately misleading. A better way to look at sales for products having wide variations in season sales is to look at year-on-year figures [macdailynews.com]. By that measure iPod sales continue to rack up healthy gains, and some analysts [forbes.com] believe that that the iPod is in the "early stages of its product expansion" and can continue to grow its sales by at least 20% a year for the forseeable future.

Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000

Re:FUD story playing to Wall Street bears

[wootest (694923)]

There is a downwards curve here but it has nothing to do with actual popularity decline, just with timing and new models.

Very late Q1 04, iPod mini was released, very late Q1 05, iPod shuffle was released. No new iPod has been released since the 5G ("video") iPod almost a year ago, and the only thing to up sales a bit has been a 1GB iPod nano in the middle of Q2 06 and a small iPod shuffle price drop.

Having the other three quarters not reach holiday quarter level is the norm and pretty much the only way you can beat that is by releasing new products directly following the holiday quarter. This year they didn't, and so they declined. This isn't rocket science, and it doesn't point towards or prove an overall continuing decline.

Why my iPod lost its cool.

[The Living Fractal (162153)]

Couple of reasons, in no order of importance:

- Backlight died after a few weeks.
- Durable construction? You could scratch the screen with cotton.
- "Innovative" touch pad.. try scrolling through ten thousand songs precisely. Not. Happening.
- iTunes (though it's easily circumventable)
- Overall versatility only increases when you hax0r it (this might actually be a plus ;P)
- Price

TLF

Fool me once...

[B5_geek (638928)]

Here are my ideas why sales are slowing.

1) battery life - Enough people have been 'burned' by the poor preformance of the built-in battery. (My wife's 40Gb player only lasts 30 minutes before the battery is dead) That don't think that $100-$300 every couple of years is worth it.

2) market saturation - How many people who would like to have a portable music player, haven't heard of an ipod?

3) price/format/additional features - I recently bought an iRiver T30 (1GB) It can play .ogg (which I use for audiobooks) and a single AAA battery lasts 30+ hours. Many other 'new' MP3 players have built-in FM-tuners, FM-transmitters, etc. that are costly additions to an ipod.

4) no real reason to upgrade. The writing is on the wall for that popularity of hand-held video players, the video ipod is close, but the format (screen size/dimensions) of the PSP are damn near perfect. The first company to make an non-crippled divx/xvid/mpeg4/mp3 player will do good.

Could it be because...

[Val314 (219766)]

... the last iPod Update was October 12, 2005 according to http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ [macrumors.com] and everyone is waiting for the new one?

Bubble?

[cgenman (325138)]

Must everything be a bubble now?

The stock market was a bubble because everyone that bought stock inflated the price of stock for everyone else, making it look like a better growth opportunity for investment. The housing market was a bubble because everyone that bought houses inflated the prices of housing and the resultant appearance of investment opportunity similarly. And when both of which become too big, the bubble burst as there was nothing quite supporting the inflated prices and value plummetted.

The iPod does not exhibit bubble-like qualities. The iPod is a thing. Someone buying an iPod does not inflate the price for everyone else. As a thing with utility, the iPod cannot instantly decline in usefulness like a stock can.

The bubble is a useful analogy in certain investment situations. But let's not go pretexting it into conversation inappropriately.

Author has a clear agenda

[delete (514365)]

'Phones are outselling dedicated MP3 players by six to one. Apple had the market for MP3, but they lost it.'

Before anyone takes this article too seriously, it's worth examining the credentials of the "expert" quoted in the article. Tomi Ahonen is a self-declared "technology strategy consultant", whose primary field of consultancy is wireless and mobile telecoms [tomiahonen.com]. Last year he predicted that mobile games consoles would also be crushed by mobile phone usage [msn.com]. The weak PSP represented an easy target, I'm not so sure that the iPod is as passé as he would have us believe.

If anyone has any doubt regarding Tomi's views, look no further than his blog [blogs.com]. Clearly he has a vested interest in seeing the iPod fail, so take his opinions with large doses of salt.

This report is pure FUD. Look at the stats.

[47Ronin (39566)]

All you have to do is compare the year-over-year numbers. Q3 may be low every year, but the numbers get larger year-over-year. The guys at the Guardian obviously understand NOTHING about market and fiscal trends.

iPod unit sales:

----- 2004
Q4 03: 336,000
Q1 04: 733,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 04: 807,000
Q3 04: 860,000
Q4 04: 2,016,000

----- 2005
Q1 05: 4,580,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 05: 5,311,000
Q3 05: 6,155,000
Q4 05: 6,451,000

----- 2006
Q1 06: 14,043,000 (holiday quarter)
Q2 06: 8,526,000
Q3 06: 8,111,000

Believing the analysts

[Infonaut (96956)]

It is interesting to me that so many Slashdot readers are taking it as a given that the analysts are correct on this one, even though the latter(and many Slashdot readers as well) have been wrong about the iPod pretty much every step of the way, and have a long history of not really grokking Apple. I agree that Apple needs to do something new, either by coming out with a completely new product that leapfrogs ahead of the iPod, or by some other means.

But the problem with forecasts like this is that they never take into account human creativity. The default assumption is that the engineers and designers at Apple (or any other company they examine) can't possibly come up with anything to supplant the currently successful product. Given Apple's track record since the return of Jobs, I'm willing to bet that the company's best days are not behind it.

The Halo Effect of iPod sales is very real. Macs, particularly laptops, have made an impressive comeback. You can bet they'll do more with the Intel-powered Macs than they're letting on now. The iTMS has been a huge success, and Apple can use that to springboard into a variety of media distribution plans, depending on where they want to take it. My guess is that when Apple introduces the new video service, there will be more to it than most pundits have predicted.

Particularly, I see Apple finally bringing consumers a truly easy way to snag video content via the Internet and play it back on a variety of devices easily. Integration isn't just about bringing technology to bear on a problem; it's also about making the technology easy enough for John Q. Public to use. With the success of the iPod, the buying public looks to Apple for easy to use media playback devices.

My predictions are, of course, not any more valuable than those from Wall Street. However, I am continually struck by the limited the range of vision of the Wall Street analysts, and by how frequently people actually listen to them.

Re:Coolness factor

[vistic (556838)]

When it comes to "Coolness Factor" I think it's safe to say that the Microsoft Zune is pretty much dead on arrival.

Re:

[Overly Critical Guy (663429)]

Actually, your post makes a point indirectly. Taco's comment was flat-out stupid in retrospect. And remember everyone's doom-and-gloom predictions here on Slashdot about the iPod mini?

Perhaps people should reconsider calling the iPod down for the count every six months. It's making them look idiotic. The iPod has never had a year-over-year quarter that went down in sales. Rumors are that Apple waited so long to update their iPod line this year because they've been in negotiations with major studios.

Wrong, Wall Street will sh*t a brick ...

[AHumbleOpinion (546848)]

I doubt Wall Street is worried about summer sales being lower than Christmas sales...

You are so wrong. Apple's stock price is all about iPod. For years their stock has been fairly flat as new computers are introduced, Macs that are the best machines they ever offered. However iPod news, or even rumors, can cause huge movements. The business press even often describes Apple as the maker of iPod and Macintosh computers, Mac ironically getting second billing. iPod brought Apple stock to the $30s and well b