Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

News for nerds, stuff that matters

Slashdot Log In

Log In

Create Account  |  Retrieve Password

Vista Taking a Nibble Out of Apple in OS Wars?

Posted by Zonk on Fri Apr 06, 2007 03:08 PM
from the chomp-chomp-chomp dept.
PetManimal writes "Despite all of the positive buzz about the Mac operating system and the 'halo effect' of iPod sales, Mac OS X market share actually dropped last month, reports Computerworld: 'The share of PowerPC-based Macs fell ... from 4.29% in February to 3.94% in March. That dip was not fully offset by an increase in Intel-based Mac hardware, leading to a overall net decline in Mac share of 0.3%, to 6.08% in March.' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS. The figures are from a company called Net Applications, which collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of 40,000+ Web sites."
+ -
story

Related Stories

[+] Why Microsoft Should Fear Apple 576 comments
jcatcw writes "Computerworld's Scot Finnie says that Microsoft should be afraid because Apple has gotten smarter about how it competes. He says that it's the Parallels Desktop software that has been truly transformational for the Mac. Finnie did a simple three-month trial of the Mac last in the fall and realized four months later that he wasn't going back. Since then he's received hundreds of messages from readers who've also made the switch. 'In the end, this is about perception. It isn't about Apple's market share or even its quarterly sales numbers. (Apple's notebook computer sales for the fourth quarter were 4.1% of all portable computer sales, according to DisplaySearch.) What this is about is that Apple is reaching the right people with its product, winning new converts, Windows user by Windows user -- and creating buzz. How do you measure buzz? You don't. It's something that experienced people in this industry can just feel. And that's the condition Microsoft should fear. Because buzz can turn into something much harder to combat than sheer numbers.'"
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
 Full
 Abbreviated
 Hidden
More
Loading... please wait.
  • pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

    by djupedal (584558) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:11PM (#18638107)
    One word - 'LEOPARD'

    If there is a down blip, it's due to people waiting for Leopard, not because of vista, and ho boy...wait 'till you see her hit the track :)
    • Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Overly Critical Guy (663429) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:29PM (#18638357)
      Not to mention the unreliability of relying on web browser stats to determine OS market share. How about we go by, I don't know, actual sales figures to determine market share? Call me crazy.
      • Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

        by HairyCanary (688865) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:49PM (#18638709)
        Sales figures don't tell you the whole story either, so keep looking. If Mac users keep their machines for five years on average, versus say two and a half years average for Windows PC users, then Macs could have half the sales rate of PC's and still be staying even with market share. What you want to reliably assess is installed base.
      • Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

        by syphax (189065) on Friday April 06 2007, @04:16PM (#18639153) Journal

        The criticism about sales vs. avg. machine lifetime is valid.

        In the auto industry we look at UIOs- "units in operation" - that is available via state vehicle registration records. On the whole, the data is pretty good.

        Of course, we don't need to register our computers (yet), so we don't have that option.

        Assuming the data [hitslink.com] isn't crap, I noticed that Apple has been gaining market share at an average of 0.34% a month since last September, until the 0.3% dip this past month. They went from 4.3% to 6.4% pretty quick, and it's notable b/c that's switching vendors (unlike Vista, which is mostly same vendor, different product). What will be interesting is the next couple of months- was this just a blip? What happens when Leopard comes out?

        I'd put my money on 'blip'. I hereby forecast continued growth for Apple, though maybe averaging 0.1-0.2% per month unless they come out with some kickass hardware soon.

        And no, I'm not a fanboy.
      • Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

        by BKX (5066) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:37PM (#18638497) Journal
        You're forgetting that the total number of computers is rising. If Apple sales were to stagnate, their overall market share (as a percentage) would drop even if no Apple users switched to something else. Under the GP's analysis, we would expect that the market share (again, as a percentage) would drop while people wait for Leopard.
      • Re:pfft (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 06 2007, @03:38PM (#18638523)

        The stats come from website logs, which is basically snake oil as far as accurate numbers goes. The decline could be something as simple as Apple developers tweaking Safari's caching parameters. Since Intel Macs already have the latest version of Safari, if the latest version is more efficient at caching resources, that means that HTTP traffic from PPC Safari users will slowly decline as they upgrade to the latest version of Safari, while Intel users are already at that level.

        Or it could be something completely different - HTTP traffic analysis is useless for determining browser/os market share and the littlest thing can skew the numbers wildly.

      • Re:pfft (Score:5, Informative)

        by Aqua OS X (458522) on Friday April 06 2007, @04:12PM (#18639083) Homepage
        Dude, you need to take a statistics class or something. We're dealing with market percentages, not licenses sold. If I have a cup that has 50 green M&Ms and 50 red M&Ms, and I add 10 green M&Ms and 5 red M&Ms, green M&Ms are now less then 50%, but that doesn't mean I lost green M&Ms.

        You need to account for licenses sold in relationship to market growth, transitions to new OS, and consumers who have postponed purchases while waiting for new operating systems.

        That said, PPC OS X usage dropped, Intel OS X usage increased, people are timing hardware purchases to coincide with Leopard's release, and people are cashing-in on their wait for Vista. These are factors that may reduce the PPC Mac OS percentage for March, but that is not the same thing as a reduced install base, nor is it a sign that the growth of Apple's install base is entering an extended stagnation.
  • Dualboot? (Score:5, Informative)

    by norminator (784674) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:12PM (#18638109)
    I guess Boot Camp has just barely started supporting Vista, but how much of this could be due to dual-booting OSX and Vista on the same machine? Or from people that beta tested Vista? I tried out the beta, then installed a release copy of Vista on my work laptop, but then I switched back after a couple of months.
  • 2%? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Stormx2 (1003260) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:13PM (#18638125)
    This strikes me as low for a brand new windows OS. I'm not familiar with previous statistics, but I would have thought that sales would increase quickly after the release then slowly decrease. If it is at 2% now, I don't expect we'll get much more after this.

    $20 says Microsoft will simply disable XP machines to boost sales.
  • by varmint jerky (810306) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:14PM (#18638137)
    I powered my Mac off yesterday and forgot to turn it back on. Try it again now...
  • by Sneakernets (1026296) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:14PM (#18638145) Journal
    *throws hands up in the air*

    Ok, Microsoft, you win.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 06 2007, @03:15PM (#18638151)
    My new operating system had 100% growth as I sold my 2nd copy and it still had far fewer reported bugs than either OSx or Vista....Only 2 users reported blank CDs but thats just a distribution problem...

    =)
  • New Hardware (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Snap E Tom (128447) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:15PM (#18638159)
    Maybe it's because a lot of people knew that the iMac, mini, and Mac Pros were due for a refresh.
  • by smooth wombat (796938) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:17PM (#18638175) Homepage Journal
    What websites do they monitor so I can fire up my Windows 95 machine and make an entrance?
  • Not a shocker (Score:5, Informative)

    by SengirV (203400) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:17PM (#18638193)
    The macs haven't been rev'd in quite a while. I had hoped that revs would occur more frequently with the switch to intel, but it's simply not the case. And sorry, I don't count an additional option for 8-core on the Mac Pro a rev as much as it's another BTO option. Especially when they didn't change anything else on the machine.

    http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ [macrumors.com]

    mini is still at CD, not C2D. iMacs haven't been updated in over 200 days. macbook and MBP in 150. Compare that with the ONLY way to upgrade on the PC side - buy a new machine, and you begin to see the appeal of Vista over OS X when it comes to hardware sales. Finally, Tiger is on it's way out as well. So people are holding off on new Macs until they come pre-installed with leopard.

    Would like to see the figures once leopard comes out ;)
  • Here I come (Score:5, Funny)

    by Spackler (223562) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:18PM (#18638195) Journal
    ' Meanwhile, Vista is rising, the article says, with just over 2% of computers connected to the Internet using the new Windows OS

    They won't be connected for long:
    net start BOTNET
  • Very misleading (Score:5, Insightful)

    by apachetoolbox (456499) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:21PM (#18638237) Homepage
    The tone of this article is very misleading.

    I do a lot of consulting work and it's very hard to get a new PC for someone that doesn't come with Vista. They don't want Vista but they have no choice. Then we get to deal with figuring out what software they need works and what needs patches and what just plain doesn't work and never will.
  • by topham (32406) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:23PM (#18638269) Homepage
    The actual decline they have reported is 0.3%; which I'm sure is well within there margin of error.

    Which means, Apple's share hasn't changed. Despite the fact there are less PowerPC machines than before.
  • Oh please (Score:5, Insightful)

    by MBCook (132727) <foobarsoft@foobarsoft.com> on Friday April 06 2007, @03:26PM (#18638315) Homepage

    Can we get real? Apple's market share dropped for one month? Let's see what could cause that:

    1. People waiting for Leopard
    2. People waiting for CS 3 to come out (this was February after all)
    3. Vista's sales jump (in both hardware and software) from heavy promotion and tons of news coverage

    There. That took about 3 seconds to think up. When Vista has displaced Apple for 3 months in a row, we can talk. Until then this is stupid hype designed to make Vista look like it isn't a dog sales wise (when from MS you would think it would have started selling like Windows 95 did). Plus, this is the PowerPC share that dropped. They are old and slow as hell (I'm using one). Now that CS3 is out (and was about to come out by the time they did this survey) you'd be an IDIOT to buy one. So the Intel side didn't jump up. People are probably waiting for CS3 (to put their requisitions in at work), or for Leopard (coming any time now, June 21st at the latest).

    Non-story.

  • by mattgreen (701203) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:28PM (#18638341)
    Give the guys at Roughly Drafted a week or two to point out all the reasons this sort of assessment is downright wrong, while decorating the article with all sorts of nice pie charts, graphs, and equally questionable statistics. Then we will know what really happened. Because the mainstream media certainly has an anti-Apple agenda, we can't trust just ANY statistics.
  • by Jason1729 (561790) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:28PM (#18638345)
    I use both Macs and PCs and it seems like I buy and upgrade PCs a lot more often. My latest Mac is a Powerbook G4 from early 2004 and I'm just now starting to think about a replacement. Over those last 3 years I've bought 2 PCs and will probably buy a 3rd long before I replace the Mac. The PC's just feel dated after less than a year while the Macs take about 3 years to feel the same way. At least to me.

    If PCs have a much shorter useful life, their percentage of sales will be higher than their actual percentage of machines in use.
  • Bogus data (Score:5, Insightful)

    by geekwithsoul (860466) <geekwithsoul@yaF ... m minus language> on Friday April 06 2007, @03:44PM (#18638629)
    FTA:

    "Net Applications collects its data from the browsers of visitors to its network of more than 40,000 Web sites."

    Any statistics that purport to show "usage" based on browser hits is inherently suspect, especially if the stats are used to imply they have some larger meaning. If they can answer these questions, I'll believe them:

    - How are the servers of these "40,000 webs sites" identifying unique users? (server logs, scripts, or both? How long are the sessions they are looking at?)
    - Are they looking at number of hits, unique user views, or what?
    - How well can they ensure that machines are not being counted multiple times?
    - Which sites are included? Are both microsoft.com and apple.com sites included? What about msn.com or mac.com? How many tech-savy sites are included and how many might-as-well-be-AOL newbie sites?
    - Are the results from some sites weighted above or below other sites?

    I'm not saying they haven't taken all these things into account, but publishing them (or referencing them by a third-party) without including how the data was gathered makes this all just so much noise.
      • Statistics 101 (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Nasarius (593729) on Friday April 06 2007, @03:38PM (#18638533)
        A drop in overall percentage doesn't necessarily mean a drop in users. It could easily mean that Windows is growing, and the Mac market is stagnating before a new release.