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Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone 412

Posted by Zonk from the that-is-a-mighty-pricey-phone dept.
narramissic writes "A survey by online market research firm Compete Inc. finds that of the 26% of those who said they're likely to buy an iPhone, only 1% said they'd pay $500 for it, while 42% said they'd likely buy the phone for $200 to $299. Sixty percent of likely iPhone buyers would be willing to make the switch to AT&T wireless to get it."
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Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone

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  • Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by dada21 ( 163177 ) * <adam.dada@gmail.com> on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:07PM (#18126884) Homepage Journal
    I can't begin to count how often in the past people cheered about a product that ended up either vaporware or less-than-desired. I also can't begin to count on the opposite happening: a non-starter product release that turned out to be better than expected. I've been a PDA user since the Apple Newton days, and I've been a PDA Phone user since pre-Blackberry days (although I never had a Blackberry, I prefer full PDAs). I currently use an HTC Trinity P3600 and love it -- GPS, EDGE/3G, 2GB storage card, WiFi, and more. It runs the horrid Windows Mobile 5 but I absolutely love the phone, and combined with Google Maps online + GPS, it replaced 3 devices that I had tethered with me constantly.

    The iPhone looks terrible to me for a variety of reasons -- locked application support, AT&T (love my T-Mobile), restrictive networking (GPRS and not EDGE/3G?), etc. But the iPhone will probably win in version 2 because of what has made Apple a powerhouse -- it's the interface, stupid. My iPod is really a great device (even though I don't use it since I have EDGE-radio streamed from my home media PC). I loved the iPod for the interface. I'm glad my wife, sister, father, mother and brother all have iPods -- I have to do absolutely NO work to keep them happy.

    My #1 complaint about ALL PDAs and ALL phones has always been the interface. It seems that techies designed a horrid interface around features, rather than integrating everything into a smooth GUI. Apple's interface alone will sell millions, and people will pay the price.

    One thing that people seem to forget time and again is that you can not judge tomorrow's prices on yesterday's prices. Inflation [unanimocracy.com] has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar. I think $500 is a reasonable price for all of what the iPhone offers -- even though it is merely version 1.0. By the time the iPhone is actually released, who knows how much inflation has caused wages to "rise" and incomes to "soar." With the Democrats taking over, I don't doubt that inflation will get worse than even the high-spending Republicans forced the issue.

    Don't look at prices as a constant. In terms of US dollars, we're almost all wealthier in the number of dollars we earn -- even though we are poorer in terms of what those dollars can buy us.

    Sidenote: Apple is also wise to set this price point. It is just pricey-enough-sounding to make the device a little more elitist than the $49 Razr that every 12 year old seems to have. Getting the superstars and Paris-Hilton-models using their phone will make everyone want one, and as sales go up, prices tend to go down. Apple's biggest problem in the short run will be supply -- I guarantee they won't have enough to keep up with demand, even at $500.

    I paid $650 for my HTC Trinity P3600, and if Apple can integrate a GPS and EDGE/3G, I'd pay $1000 for it just on the interface alone. Give it a few weeks after release, and I think people's opinions of the device will change. They'll see what it can do for them (especially business folks, teenagers with money, and young adults with new credit cards), and they'll jump at the chance to have one early for $500.

    • Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by garcia ( 6573 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:14PM (#18126972)
      I paid $650 for my HTC Trinity P3600, and if Apple can integrate a GPS and EDGE/3G, I'd pay $1000 for it just on the interface alone. Give it a few weeks after release, and I think people's opinions of the device will change. They'll see what it can do for them (especially business folks, teenagers with money, and young adults with new credit cards), and they'll jump at the chance to have one early for $500.

      There are a few things that I don't like about the device that are the reasons why I will not be purchasing one:

      1. It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T. This may be a great idea for Apple and Cingular/AT&T but it's terrible for everyone that has to switch to them to use this device.

      2. There is no tactile QWERTY keyboard as part of the device. dada, as a previous Hiptop user and now with the P3600, you have to know how great a real keyboard is compared to a touchscreen based one. I could NOT get along by tapping the screen -- it's just not the same and touch typing would become extremely difficult.

      3. The price is ASTRONOMICAL especially if you're getting new service and paying out the ass to drop your current contract with a better wireless company to switch. The research is right as $299 is more reasonable than $500+ even with disposable income and the desire for a great wireless device, it's not worth that much to me when I'm locked in to one vendor for at least two years.

      • Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Informative)

        by PFI_Optix ( 936301 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:25PM (#18127112) Journal
        I've been a Cingular user for years, and am quite happy with them. In fact, my only complaint is that they apparently are going to become AT&T Wireless. I have a bad history with AT&T Wireless and laughed when they were absorbed by Cingular. What really chafes me is that SBC bought AT&T, yet they're the ones who gave up the name.
        • The AT&T name, for all AT&T's faults, is dramatically more recognizable than SBC. That's the long and short of it.

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by vought ( 160908 )
          I've been a Cingular user for years, and am quite happy with them. In fact, my only complaint is that they apparently are going to become AT&T Wireless. I have a bad history with AT&T Wireless and laughed when they were absorbed by Cingular.

          Ditto and ditto.

          When my contract is up I will be shopping around. ATT Wireless was one of the worst cellular providers out there, bar none - and I was stuck with their terrible service "over the hill" in Santa Cruz until I complained loud and long enough that the

      • The price is ASTRONOMICAL especially if you're getting new service and paying out the ass to drop your current contract with a better wireless company to switch. The research is right as $299 is more reasonable than $500+ even with disposable income and the desire for a great wireless device, it's not worth that much to me when I'm locked in to one vendor for at least two years.

        This is what Apple always does. This is how the market works. They invent something, sell it at a high price in order to pay for development and pick up the part of the market willing to pay that price, and lower the price later. You'll get your $300 iPhone soon enough.

        • No, you won't see an iPhone for $300. (Score:5, Interesting)

          by Fred Ferrigno ( 122319 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @04:23PM (#18127936)
          If they drop the price that low, it'll put the iPhone into direct competition with the high-end iPod (currently $350). Since the iPhone has more features, a cheap iPhone has the potential to cannibalize iPod sales. That's no good for Apple because lowering the price means lowering the iPhone's profit margin at the expense of high profit iPods.

          All signs indicate Apple's trying to position the iPhone a step-up from the iPod, not a replacement. I really doubt it will ever drop below the price of the most expensive iPod, even with a contract.

      • Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Insightful)

        by MrPerfekt ( 414248 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:37PM (#18127282) Homepage Journal
        There are a few things that I don't like about the device that are the reasons why I will not be purchasing one:

        1. It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T. This may be a great idea for Apple and Cingular/AT&T but it's terrible for everyone that has to switch to them to use this device.

        You say tomato, I say tomat... well, you get the point. Everybody has their own opinion, experiences, and whatnot with cell phone providers. In short, they all suck. I believe that Verizon and Sprint are the worst out there. Locking everyone in to their phones and only allowing data transfers (pictures, ringtones and such) through their proprietary services. GSM has always been about embracing more open standards. I can buy most any "unlocked" phone from eBay and use it by simply swapping SIMs. This alone makes a GSM provider miles better than a CDMA provider.

        2. There is no tactile QWERTY keyboard as part of the device. dada, as a previous Hiptop user and now with the P3600, you have to know how great a real keyboard is compared to a touchscreen based one. I could NOT get along by tapping the screen -- it's just not the same and touch typing would become extremely difficult.

        I'm the exact opposite. I -hate- those tiny key keyboards that feel like you're going to split your fingernails on trying to type on them. They're mostly worthless since they take up most of the phone (which would be large even without them). I'll pass on that.

        3. The price is ASTRONOMICAL especially if you're getting new service and paying out the ass to drop your current contract with a better wireless company to switch. The research is right as $299 is more reasonable than $500+ even with disposable income and the desire for a great wireless device, it's not worth that much to me when I'm locked in to one vendor for at least two years.

        I've paid more than that for a phone more than once. You can't tell me that $200 is a large barrier if you're serious about considering the phone to begin with. Sure, cheaper is better and knowing Apple it will get cheaper in the future. I think it's perfectly reasonable and smart to control demand by setting the initial price high and make money off of people that are dying to get the device (regardless of reason, being trendy or simply because it's actually useful). I have no problem paying that for a device like this because I've paid it before for devices that weren't even 20% as good.

        Of course, all this remains to be seen. The iPhone could very well suck due to restrictive application policies and physical product glitches. I reserve judgement on that until I get my hands on one though.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by garcia ( 6573 )
          I'm the exact opposite. I -hate- those tiny key keyboards that feel like you're going to split your fingernails on trying to type on them. They're mostly worthless since they take up most of the phone (which would be large even without them). I'll pass on that.

          You've never used it the correct way and you've obviously never used one that was really designed well. It's difficult to split your fingernails when you're typing w/the flat side of your thumb. I can type almost as fast (using some quick software s
      • "1. It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T. This may be a great idea for Apple and Cingular/AT&T but it's terrible for everyone that has to switch to them to use this device."

        What is wrong with Cingular? I've always been with Sprint...been happy with them, but, I've been asking friends that have Cingular, and they've been quite happy with it. So far, most all I've asked only use it for voice...I use my Sprint phone as a modem for occasional laptop usage...or

      • It's locked in to the worst wireless provider that is out there. Cingluar/AT&T.

        You have to remember that wireless provider suckitude varies by locale. There are some places where Cingular either doesn't suck, or at least sucks significantly less than the alternatives. There are also many places where there are no alternatives.
        • When the suckitude as you put it (and I like that word) involves the bill it's generally seen as a problem with the provider not local. When 611 also gets you suckitude we're talking more about an all over suckitude.

          Seriously I had AT&T, they were bad with random charges, then cingular took them over and they had tons more random charges, they were worse, then I tried to quit... there was a 3 month battle over this, and then 3 more monthes of bills before it was finally over. Overall this is not an is

    • Inflation depends on how you measure it (Score:5, Informative)

      by vlad_petric ( 94134 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:20PM (#18127044) Homepage
      Inflation has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar.

      If you consider inflation to be the value of precious metals such as gold, then sure, you can get to absurd values such as 50% (mind you, there's no such thing as absolute reference value). OTOH, if you consider consumer price indexes, it's much lower - between 5 and 10%.

      • Re:Inflation depends on how you measure it (Score:4, Interesting)

        by edwardpickman ( 965122 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @07:37PM (#18130264)
        well you're both wrong. The dollar has lost about a 1/3 of it's value compared to more stable currencies like the British pound. It's lost 25% of it's value compared to even the Euro which was 1:1 at one point. The problem is the world economy is based on the US dollar so we don't notice the change as much as other countries. Things haven't gotten much more expensive here but they are cheaper in some other countries. Economics are complex and hard to put in simple percentages. People in the US mostly notice the difference when they travel. You get a room in England for 75pounds a night but you wind up paying $150 a night US. I lived in NZ for awhile and all the locals found electronics expensive but they were roughly the same price to me once I made the currency adjustment.

    • Re:Ridiculous survey -- the product isn't out. (Score:5, Informative)

      by MrPerfekt ( 414248 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:25PM (#18127108) Homepage Journal
      The iPhone looks terrible to me for a variety of reasons -- locked application support, AT&T (love my T-Mobile), restrictive networking (GPRS and not EDGE/3G?), etc

      It -is- an EDGE device. EDGE (2.75G) is pretty terrible though compared to real 3G (UMTS/HSDPA) service that Cingular offers. It's definitely in there for revision B but as Apple has stated they don't feel a need to implement it right now since most of the US isn't covered in UMTS/HSDPA service. That will change in the next 12-18 months when you can expect to see iPhone rev. B. T-Mobile is very lagged on their 3G deployment behind Cingular so your HTC is slow as balls anyway compared to Verizon's EVDO (which has very good coverage now) and Cingular's HSDPA (which is still in early deployment stages).

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by zyl0x ( 987342 )

      One thing that people seem to forget time and again is that you can not judge tomorrow's prices on yesterday's prices. Inflation [unanimocracy.com] has destroyed the US dollar (down 50% in 5 years), so prices double of what we paid 5 years ago can be considered "par" with the fall in value of the dollar. I think $500 is a reasonable price..

      This doesn't make any sense. New, comparable items being (in your opinion) reasonably priced at "double of what we paid 5 years ago" is ridiculous. Your reasoning is fl

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by rspress ( 623984 )
      I have a windows using friend who just tried to go down and put 500 dollars down as a deposit for the iPhone so he gets one when it comes in. They would not let him do it. It is a little pricey for me but then if I had the bucks I would get one.
    • This isn't a PDA. You can't add software to it. You can't write software for it. It is worthless as a computing device. This is why it is not worth $500.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by gig ( 78408 )
      > Looks terrible to me for a variety of reasons -- locked application support,

      The iPhone runs Web applications right out of the box. You go to images.google.com or whatever other URL and its browser has all the specs to run Web 2.0 same as Firefox. There is a lot of stuff that you pay for on other phones that you won't have to either buy or install on the iPhone because you'll just use the Web version.

      Slashdot is in the iPhone already, for example, because iPhone has a full-scale modern Web browser. What

  • Only 1% will buy it at the $599 pricemark (Score:5, Funny)

    by CrazyJim1 ( 809850 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:07PM (#18126886) Journal
    Oh sorry, I thought we were talking about the PS3.

    • Re:Only 1% will buy it at the $599 pricemark (Score:5, Insightful)

      by HappySqurriel ( 1010623 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:43PM (#18127374)

      Oh sorry, I thought we were talking about the PS3.


      You joke but it is actually a pretty similar problem.

      Most people are used to spending $0-$200 for a phone on contract and buy it because of how it is styled and its color; most of the features of the phone are not important because it is "Just a Phone." To most people spending $500 on a phone seems insane because they realize that they have no use for most of the features.

      Now there is an important difference between an iPhone and a PS3 ...

      If Sony only sold 5,000,000 PS3 systems in its first year third party developers would abandon their projects and the PS3 would die; if Apple sells 500,000 iPones in its first year they can continue to sell them the following year without any lost value for the system (and the iPhone will eventually become an affordable product).
      • If Sony only sold 5,000,000 PS3 systems in its first year third party developers would abandon their projects and the PS3 would die; if Apple sells 500,000 iPones in its first year they can continue to sell them the following year without any lost value for the system (and the iPhone will eventually become an affordable product).

        MS only sold ~5 mil in it's first 4 quarters of the 360's lifespan. I didn't see the mass exodus of third paties, did you? In Q4 2006 (fifth quarter of its' lifespan) they almost do

  • I hear... (Score:5, Funny)

    by User 956 ( 568564 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:08PM (#18126894) Homepage
    Consumers Unlikely To Pay $500 for iPhone

    I hear it's also got less space than a Nomad. Lame.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by 1point618 ( 919730 )
      One thing that could be very lame (and I don't know whether anyone has talked about this) is if it is just like the iPod in that it has a very hard to get into case with a non-user-changaeble battery (and a non-approved way of doing it, such as the iPod has, does not count). No way in hell am I going to pay $500 for something I'll have to replace in 2 years because the battery (which is already underpowered when you consider this is a phone, not just a music player) won't last longer than a couple of hours,

  • Well then? (Score:2, Redundant)

    by Tarlus ( 1000874 )
    What percentage said they wouldn't buy one at all?

    *Runs away*

  • surveys (Score:2, Insightful)

    by udderly ( 890305 ) *

    Not that I disagree with the assessment that nobody wants a $500 phone, but does anyone else really doubt how accurate these online marketing surveys are? To qualify (and get paid) you usually have to answer a question like the following one from a survey to gather information about enterprise class printers:

    How many people work in your company worldwide?

    • 1
    • 2-5
    • 6-15
    • 16-100
    • 101-10000

    Well, you know that if you don't answer with the last one, you don't get to participate or get paid. You know

    • Re:surveys (Score:4, Funny)

      by saboola ( 655522 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:20PM (#18127052)
      You forgot:

      • 10000-CowboyNeal

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by joto ( 134244 )
      You mean the people behind companies doing consumer surveys don't know basic statistics? This makes no sense. Sure, I will assume that such companies (as any other company) will sell you utter crap compared to what their sales brochure says, but that they deliberately introduce statistical errors for no good reason at all is a bit hard to swallow. Please explain.
    • When doing any sort of statistically sampling you have to consider your sample population vs the target population. If you wanted to market a new kind of kids snack, you wouldn't target bachelors for a survey. You would target kids and their parents, namely the parent that is in charge of buying groceries. In this case, they asked people who have heard of the iPhone and have/want an iPod. That's not the demographic for the iPhone. The demographic that Apple is seeking is people who are looking to buy a

  • Hmm (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Rethcir ( 680121 )
    Possibly. I am going to get it (eventually), but I make above-average money and have no kids or anything. I think most consumers expect it to drop in price like other cell phones, IE the razr which was once rediculously priced but now is handed out willy-nilly. Whether that happens or not is yet to be seen, since Apple has no intention of being a typical mobile phone manufacturer.

    • I will likely buy it because, on the surface at least, it has everything I've wanted in a phone since my first cell purchase in 2000. Biggest feature for me is the full size touch screen. I don't care for buttons/keys much. If the WiFi is really open to access any wireless network and doesn't cost me extra to use (you never know) then the only thing left for me is speed.

      If it is really as fast and capable as the demos make it look, that'll make it a "yes" on the purchase question.

      The cost isn't really

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by cowscows ( 103644 )
      I think most people with enough familiarity with digital devices to be interested in the iPhone will probably expect it to settle out along similar lines as the iPod. An initial expensive model or two, which will gradually branch out to a range of options that vary in size, functionality, appearance, and of course...price.

      There will likely always be a $600 model, it'll just steadily improve in capabilities while the abilities of the previous $600 model finds their way into the new cheaper versions.

      Although

  • Skip the phone... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Life2Short ( 593815 )
    I'll pay $500 for the wireless internet device / OS X hand-held computer and you can keep the iTunes / Mobile phone functions..

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by countSudoku() ( 1047544 )
      And widescreen video iPod to boot! The $500-600 price point is right where I expect it to be, as I was pricing new high-end Palm compatibles a few years ago, and the nice Sony ones (when they still made them) were all BT/WiFi/widescreen and/or twistscreen and guess what? Priced at $500-$700 for the really nice ones with the better screens and networking. The "unopen" aspect of the iPhone environment bothers me a bit, I'd rather have something open like Palm, but I'm also thinking of making the purchase;

  • In other news (Score:5, Insightful)

    by soft_guy ( 534437 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:10PM (#18126922)
    46% of potential Ferrari buyers said they would buy a Ferrari for $12,000-$18,000. Less than one percent said they would buy a Ferrari for the current list price of $1,000,000.

    • Re:In other news (Score:5, Funny)

      by User 956 ( 568564 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:20PM (#18127054) Homepage
      46% of potential Ferrari buyers said they would buy a Ferrari for $12,000-$18,000.

      Ah, I was waiting for the car analogy folks to show up. Just out of curiosity, why go with the Ferrari in this instance? Our research shows that 77% of people in your position would have gone with a BMW or Mercedes comparison. 20% would have made comparison to a Jaguar, and the remaining 3% would have compared the phone to a Cadillac Escalade.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Ferrari caters to the uber-wealthy and their products aren't supposed to have high sales volume and mass market appeal. The same cannot be said for Apple.

      Besides... Car analogy's never to work that well with technology anyway.

      • Ferrari caters to the uber-wealthy and their products aren't supposed to have high sales volume and mass market appeal. The same cannot be said for Apple.

        Well, if we were talking Macs here, he'd actually be right, because that's Apple's exact strategy - high appeal, high margin, low volume. But I think for this phone to be a winner, it needs to have greater market penetration and a lower price point, as they did with the iPod.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by 99BottlesOfBeerInMyF ( 813746 )

        Ferrari caters to the uber-wealthy and their products aren't supposed to have high sales volume and mass market appeal. The same cannot be said for Apple.

        Apple is selling a device to the extreme high end of the market, just like Ferrari. If they max out there production for the first two years they will probably manage to make enough for about 0.1% of the cell phone market. That may not be as small a share as the Ferrari, but based upon initial demand it seems like they will be selling them as fast as they can make them on the high end. After a year, the price will come down and they will aim for one step down from the super high end. It makes sense to me.

  • Wait a sec. . . (Score:5, Interesting)

    by TimmyDee ( 713324 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:15PM (#18126978) Homepage Journal
    So only 1% would purchase it at $500, but a full 60% would switch to Cingular to get it. At what price would they switch? $299 or $499? Summary doesn't say, nor does TFA.

    Sloppy.

  • phone + computer (Score:2, Informative)

    by anagama ( 611277 )
    Personally, after the initial excitement wore off, I decided to wait to see if OpenMoko's phone [openmoko.com] is going to be all it seems it could be. Apple lost me when they took a perfectly good computing device and made it phone+music player with some PDA functions tacked. Go ahead an mod me troll, but I've got a stack of apple laptops. I buy stuff for its value and Apple's stuff often packs good value. Not the iPhone though -- I don't see the value there.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Zanth_ ( 157695 )
      Is the word on the street that the PDA functionality will be greatly inhibited? I'm very interested in a PDA + phone that works flawless with my Apple laptop. To this day, nothing seems to work flawlessly. I have/had high hopes for the iPhone, mainly because it is using OS X, but if the PDA functionality is an afterthought only...then I may have to pass. Will there be an input device? (stylus for instance?) Can I integrate with Calendar, Mail, Address Book AND can I also open up Word docs, write my own

      • Re:phone + computer (Score:4, Insightful)

        by anagama ( 611277 ) <obamaisaneocon@nothingchanged.org> on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:52PM (#18127504) Homepage
        Undoubtedly it will provide core PDA functions that work with macs. I can't imagine it otherwise.

        Where they lose me is in the area of applications. Will there be a encrypted notepad? Nothing can really take the place of an encrypted password list on a PDA. My PDA died a while ago and I was hoping to combine the phone and PDA. As it is now, it's a real pain to drag out whatever computer has the most current password list on it (I try to keep a list on my various computers but it's always out of sync). Aside from that, I want a plain old shell with various apps, like the essential SSH. These things may or may not be on Apple's priority list, but they are on someone's. With the OpenMoko, people can make an application and sell or give it away. With Apple's phone, it remains to be seen whether that natural software ecosystem will develop. It certainly sounds like it will not.

  • people will pay (Score:5, Insightful)

    by boxlight ( 928484 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:18PM (#18127016)
    Dollars to donuts, people will pay for the iPhone.

    They said the original iPod was expensive, too. But there's are segments of society that won't flinch at $500 for a phone because it's not much money to them. And there are other segments of society that are willing to invest $500 of their hard earned money into something they really like.

    The iPhone may be expensive for a "phone" -- but as a pocket computer, it's a pretty cool device. These nay-sayers are the same people shelling out thousands of dollars for HD TVs, and I paid $2000 for my iMac a while ago -- in the grand scheme of things, $500 is not that much money.

    iPhone will sell like hot cakes and make Apple a tonne of dough.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by drinkypoo ( 153816 )

      The iPhone may be expensive for a "phone" -- but as a pocket computer, it's a pretty cool device.

      The phone will be locked down and not permit the installation of third-party apps. It's not a pocket computer - that would mean you could expand it. It's a portable information appliance, which means that it behaves like a black box and you are not permitted to open it.

      If Apple had allowed unfettered access to the system, and permitted development of third-party apps in xcode, then yes, it would be a fabulous

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Mandrake ( 3939 )
        you can, in fact, install third party applications. they will just be acquired through the itunes store instead of downloaded on your own. this doesnt' even mean they won't be free, as the itunes store has plenty of free stuff on it. I know of several places with SDKs for the phone already.

  • The plan is for 1% (Score:5, Informative)

    by janneH ( 720747 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:20PM (#18127048)
    I seem to recall that Steve Jobs said when introducing the iPhone that they were aiming for 1% of the market initially.

  • Backwards (Score:2, Interesting)

    by whisper_jeff ( 680366 )
    The survey is backwards. It asks first if the person is interested in the iPhone _and then_ what price they'll pay. Apple has already said they aren't targeting every phone buyer. They're targeting phone buyers who are planning on/willing to spend $500+ on a phone. They don't (currently) care about the people who want an iPhone but are only willing to spend $200 (or whatever price).

    I'd be more interested in what percentage of people who are willing to buy a $500+ phone are planning on getting an iPhone.

    • I'd be more interested in what percentage of people who are willing to buy a $500+ phone are planning on getting an iPhone.

      That's utterly useless data, because it doesn't tell you what percentage of people are willing to buy one in the first place. It doesn't help you to know that x/90 people will buy your phone if you don't know the value of x.

  • "Consumers" (Score:3, Insightful)

    by TCM ( 130219 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:22PM (#18127068)
    We are not consumers! We are citizens and customers, not sheep.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by geekoid ( 135745 )
      are also consumers.
      do you not consume anything?

      In this context consumer is correct. When on Capital Hill and involves laws that effect the people, then it's Citizen.

  • 1% of 26% = 0.26%? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by CheshireCatCO ( 185193 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:23PM (#18127086) Homepage
    So basically, one person their entire sample was willing to pay the iPhone's nominal, current price? That's a pretty shoddy sample to be deducing the actual percent from.

    Also, note that just because the majority of people won't buy a particular product, it does not follow that the product will necessarily fail. What percent of Americans owned iPods when they first came out? It's up to around 10% now, but we're also into the fifth generation and the prices have dropped while capability has increased. Since this is common with technology, I would expect the same from the iPhone.

  • Reality is US consumers used to contracts (Score:4, Insightful)

    by WillAffleckUW ( 858324 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:30PM (#18127182) Homepage Journal
    Here in the US, as opposed to say Japan or the EU, we pay for our $500 cell phones in multi-year contracts for phone services, so we actually think it costs us $50 for a phone, since it's bundled with our overpriced service.

    In other places you pay the actual price of the phone and your wireless service is $10 to $20 a month.

    The same thing will happen with the iPhone - US and Canadian customers will be offered a plan where we basically amortize the cost of the iPhone over 2 or 3 years of wireless service, and end up paying much more than we would if we kept it separate.
    • The initial offering was 3yr deal + $500 upfront to get the Iphone. So the $500 is after a 3yr subsidy by cingular. They may revise this but it means compared to other phones it's the quivalent to a $800 phone. My moto Q would have been 500 CND on it's own, 199 CND with a 3yr deal. Takign the same subsidy that means either apple is not taking a subsidy on a 3yr deal or apply is makign a $800 phone.

      PS. my moto Q was free with a 0$ plan. Sweetness workign for a telecom.

  • the author is statistically challenged (Score:3, Informative)

    by u19925 ( 613350 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:31PM (#18127198)
    The author surveyed 379 people of which 26% said they will buy iPhone. That is roughly 100 people, of which 1% said they will pay $500. That is just 1 person. Whoever translates this to 1% is a "statistically challenged" person.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:34PM (#18127246)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by n2art2 ( 945661 )
      um. . . got mine for 100 bucks. with a 2 year contract. . . the same is for the iPhone. . . but it is 500 bucks. . with a 2 year contract.

      That's ok, math wasn't your best suit.
  • I was reading this rediff article [rediff.com] in which a middle class teen ager is complaining about price of tomato (20 cents a pound) and is carrying USD 400+ cellphone. They sure do have lot of money to buy cell phones.
  • I am not going to pay $500 for just a phone, but I would pay $500 for a mobile computer. I am not an early adaopter by any stretch. Even if I was I would still not pay for the iPhone. It has to be open to developers so it can expand with my needs. The most resounding feature is how much it is limited. It is limited to Cingular with 2 year contract, no new apps unless Apple makes them, and the lifetime of the battery (they don't last forever). Ill pass for now.

  • I'm getting one (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Paulrothrock ( 685079 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @03:46PM (#18127418) Homepage Journal

    Or, rather, my wife is getting one.

    Her birthday is in June, and she needs a new iPod and a new cell phone, and we're already with Cingular and are happy with the service. She saw that you can show pictures to people on that wide screen and said "I want to be able to do that." And now that we've got a baby on the way, it will make it a helluva lot easier than having to lug photos around or view it on my iPod's comparatively small screen, or the tiny screen of an iPod Nano. And having her address book and calendar with her would be very convenient.

    So it's not for everybody, but for her it can replace having to carry around two larger items that, were I to buy them separately, would cost about the same price.

  • $500 + may work without a forced 2 year plan but the I-phone will likely force you buy a 2 year high cost data plan as well a 2 year voice plan
  • Most americans aren't willing to pay *anything* up front for a cellphone. But we will accept a two year contract at double the normal rate, as long as we get the phone for "free".

    So they'll do the same thing with the iPhone that they do with every other phone. They'll offer 'em at half the price, and charge you an arm and a leg every month for 24 months or more. And most Americans will thank them for it.

    That, and employers will buy them for their employees. So yes, only 1% of those surveyed would pay $5

  • Exactly What Apple Predicted (Score:5, Insightful)

    by nick_davison ( 217681 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @04:06PM (#18127714)
    "Apple launches the iPhone, aiming for one percent of the global mobile market." [broadstreetnews.com] - 1/10/2007

    Study: Consumers aren't willing to pay $500 for iPhone [itworld.com] "only 1 percent said they'd pay US$500 for it" - 2/23/2007

    Wow. In only six weeks they've managed to estabilish exactly what Apple already said and, in a sensationalist bid, are framing exactly what was predicted as a terrible failure.

    As another poster's written: Most people would buy Ferraris for $18,000 but less than 1% will at their current price... and Ferrari is absolutely fine with that.

    In exactly the same way, Apple created a flagship brand that's not supposed to be owned by everyone but is supposed to increase brand awareness, move more people to iTunes and sell a hell of a lot of iPods to people who'd like to be able to upgrade "one day." Apple doesn't want the $50, minimal to no profits, tied to carriers for subsidies market. They chose their market, went after it, and all this article does is confirm their estimates were apparently exactly right. Given most companies over-estimate, 0.5% would have been a more realistic expectation based on a 1% prediction. That independent research supports 1% too is the shocking part.

  • Consider me a 1%er (Score:3, Interesting)

    by greg_barton ( 5551 ) * <greg_barton AT yahoo DOT com> on Friday February 23, 2007 @04:43PM (#18128272) Homepage Journal
    As soon as it's out, I'm buying it. Heck, I'm even getting the $600 one with more memory. I'm sick of crappy phones and I'm willing to pay to bet on apple. They haven't failed me yet.

  • Ridiculous, we don't know what's in the contract (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Andy_R ( 114137 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @06:05PM (#18129258) Homepage Journal
    It's $500 with a 2 year contract. Until we know what's IN that contract, it's ridiculous to make any purchasing decision. If it's $500 for unlimited calls and data then more than 1% will want it, if it's $5/min + $5/kB then nodody will.

  • OpenMoko will get my $$$ (Score:3, Informative)

    by schlick ( 73861 ) on Friday February 23, 2007 @06:58PM (#18129932)
    Ok so they are behind a bit, Their page says that they are shipping this month. Unlikely, but I'll buy one of these before I'd ever buy an iPhone. If they do all the things they say they will do this phone will kick Apple's ass. The phone is called "Neo 1973" what that means I don't know.

    This presentation isn't as flashy as Steve Jobs' but is has me way more interested.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRvtAAXTIlg [youtube.com]

    Linux Devices has a good writeup.
    http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS2986976174.html [linuxdevices.com]

    The Company Web Site
    http://www.openmoko.com/ [openmoko.com]

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