iPhone, Apple TV Headline MacWorld Keynote

Steve Jobs kept his audience rapt at the MacWorld keynote today. He rehashed the announcement of the iTV, now called Apple TV, and announced the iPhone, a revolutionary phone/ipod/wrist-computer that had MacWorld attendees sitting on the edge of their seats. Retailing for $499 (4 gig)/$599 (8 gig), it has to be seen to be believed. It uses a touch screen with a new form of input control, runs OSX and many standard applications, and connects to the internet via WiFi. It has a camera, functions as a movie player, a music player, and can send emails and photos in the middle of a phone call. From the Engadget coverage: "'[OSX] let us create desktop class applications and networking, not the crippled stuff you find on most phones, these are real desktop applications.' He's quoting Alan Kay - 'People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware.' 'So we're bringing breakthrough software to a mobile device for the first time.'" Seriously, go check this out. They're going to print money with this thing.

CES?

CE-What?

"And in other news, flights from Las Vegas to San Francisco immediately sold out today..."

Computers?

I'm sure the iPhone is going to be a lovely product for phone users; me, I'm not too hot on cellphones (or any kind of phone, for that matter. I never did like being interrupted.) I do have an iPod, but I don't use the Apple store (because I prefer not to buy DRM'd materials. I just buy CDs and put tracks into the iPod from there.) So my main connection with Apple is their computers.

I noticed that (aside from the fact that the iPhone runs OSX) there really weren't any "computer" announcements today. Intel announced quad-core CPUs yesterday, and the rumor mill was mumbling about a dual-chip (hence 8-core) Mac desktop; likewise, the mini could use some attention in the graphics area, and the macbook pro still needs (and still has room for) a full keyboard and numeric pad, not to mention a second button on the trackpad.

The iTV / Apple TV... well, aside from the fact that you won't be able to get one for a little while yet, I'm not sure what it'd do for me that I can't already do. Apparently, the marketing went right over my head. Anyone have a summary of why this is an interesting product in a world of tivos, dvrs, frontrow, hi-def dvd and xbox and ps3 and so on? Aside from giving Apple a vector to sell DRM'd movies?

While I'm sure expanding into phones will be a great moneymaker for Apple, I can't help feeling disappointed. Just my .02

Re:Computers?

Well, maybe that's why they changed their name from "Apple Computer, Inc." to "Apple, Inc."

Re:Computers?

This is a trend likely to continue.

Apple "computer" introductions are now a separate matter. Think about it. In the past, when Apple was (basically) the sole PPC user, they were responsible for everything - of all the PC vendors (HP, Dell et al) they were the only ones designing their own system chipset. Then, it was actually meaningful to introduce such things at major events because there was no visibility otherwise. Now - it's up to Intel, and Intel is generally responsible for and publishes the underlying technology roadmap.

You want to know Apple's "computer" roadmap? Look at Intel's published roadmap. When Intel introduced the Core Duo, you knew more or less Apple was going to introduce Core Duo machines soon after. Same for Core 2 Duo. When Santa Rosa shows up in April, you also know new MB(P)s based on that will show up.

CPU "refreshes" simply aren't important enough to warrant a keynote introduction any more - the intel imac introductions etc were different and important and warranted a macworld keynote introduction because those were the *first* intel macs. all future macs, unless they introduce something new and interesting (or if apple's product lineup has seriously run dry) are unlikely to warrant any further keynote introductions. There's absolutely nothing to stop the Apple.com home page being updated in the future with a "quiet" introduction of octo-core Mac Pros.

But right now - and I think you're seriously underestimating the significance of the iPhone introduction on the players of the phone industry - the iPhone is *it*. It really is what is worth talking about right now.

No matter what their production output is I do not believe the apple stores will be able to keep it in stock. They've staked out the high ground in terms of phone functionality, and all the other players are now left with having to basically compete on price, and higher-cost western producers - that means Motorola and Nokia et al - are NOT going to be able to compete in that space, squeezed between Apple on the top and the upcoming Chinese manufacturers at the bottom. This is a serious disaster for Nokia which has been trying for ages to become a "new computing platform" (didn't they ban their employees from calling their devices "phones"?).

the "fundamental unifying characteristic" of all phones so far has been the keypad, and Apple just decided they weren't going to play there. Considering the careful patent protection apple must have put in place, any alternative implementation of a non-keypad interface must end up being klunky as hell, and there's going to be simply no way for anybody else (and this is going to include Microsoft) to compete (bar some amazing genius in their staff who comes up with a new UI idea completely out of left field ... but such a genius is probably going to want to work for Apple instead, anyway).

Everybody kept saying "well MS never gets anything right until version 3.0 anyways" when they were comparing the Zune with the iPod. Well, Zune 3.0 can be the perfect MP3 player, but it won't matter, because this is the end of the "plain MP3 player" market dominance. sure they'll still continue to be sold, but the analysts who were talking about iPod sales levelling off or plunging in 2007 were, in fact, correct - but not because it's being taken over by external competition. I've dealt with windows mobile phones. they do not compare in any way with the UI of the iPhone.

The only problem with the iPhone I can think of is basically personal safety. Think of the mugging potential.

Touchscreen Keypads Suck!

Touchscreen Keypads Suck. Horribly.

There is no tactile feel. I can dial a $20 cell phone without having to see or hear it. I've used touchscreen keypads on existing phones already and you have to look when you dial.

And you make it sounds like Apple invented the keypad-less phone. Did you happen to miss the dozen phones that have been out for years now that lack a dial pad?

MD5 Hash......

I swear, it's the strangest thing. When I ran this guys post thru an MD5 algorithm, the hash it returned was "fanboi"

Ah, the mysteries and miracles of one-way hashing.

Re:Computers?

The iTV / Apple TV... well, aside from the fact that you won't be able to get one for a little while yet, I'm not sure what it'd do for me that I can't already do. Apparently, the marketing went right over my head. Anyone have a summary of why this is an interesting product in a world of tivos, dvrs, frontrow, hi-def dvd and xbox and ps3 and so on? Aside from giving Apple a vector to sell DRM'd movies?

I was wondering the same thing. In fact, I had the same reaction to the iTV that I had to Widgets when they were first announced: this is nice enough, but it seems more like an upgrade to an existing apple product than like a revolutionary new thing.

Then I thought a bit more about the Widget analogy. With hindsight, I can now see the real purpose of Widgets. They're certainly useful on their own, but the long-term purpose of introducing them was to get lots of developers writing useful little stripped down programs--which will now be available on the iPhone. Widgets were what you might call a wedge technology. And Dashborad was just the thin end of that wedge.

So I have to assume that's what iTV is. I'm willing to bet that somewhere in Steve Job's desk is a timeline showing when they'll introduce TiVo like functionality to the AppleTV. (or, for that matter, merge the AppleTV and the iPod into an Archos-like device.) By the time that happens, they'll have had a few generations of experience to work out the basic bugs with the product, and perhaps to develop an ecosystem of third-party software and hardware designed around iTV.

Imagine the possibilities

Ok,

I can see the slashdot/mac crowd is already coming up with creative ideas. Using this as a game system is a little far out. I mean come on using this as a wii type controller sounds cool until it takes a little flight out of your oily hands. However I think the real potential is in the car.

Many cars already have iPod integration now imagine if they had iphone integration. All you do is plug the iPhone presumably through the same type of connector as the ipod. It will automatically work as the iPod does but also now will plug into the handsfree system of your car. That would be really sweet.

The icing on the cake would be if there was a OSX interface for your car central dashboard. There are already many people with touch screen devices. Now the iPhone becomes the enabling point for the whole car experience. With a navigation widget and your own custom built widgets you can automatically get a nav system and any thing else the creative Mac Widget community comes up with.

This would be a neat idea and something I would definitely like to see.

Now if only it could do something to improve people's driving. Especially in the New York area. Now that would be a real revolution Steve.

Sorry to throw cold water on your imaginings.

I asked the obvious question right after the house lights came up, and there is no public SDK for this device, just like the other iPods. This was right from Ron Okamoto (Apple's VP of developer relations.)

-jcr

Also out: Airport Extreme 802.11n

Not anounced in the keynote, but Apple is shipping a mini/tv form-factor 802.11n hub. Appletv will have 802.11n.

Re:Also out: Airport Extreme 802.11n

No. The blurb from the tech page says:

TV compatibility:
Enhanced-definition or high-definition widescreen TVs capable of 1080i 60/50Hz, 720p 60/50Hz, 576p 50Hz (PAL format), or 480p 60Hz

Re:Wide Screen

It has an optical audio out jack.

Re:Wide Screen

Very few televisions have digital audio in, outside of HDMI. If one must hook up with component, one will probably also be using R/L analogue audio.

Re:Also out: Airport Extreme 802.11n

http://www.apple.com/airportextreme/ [apple.com]

Enjoy.

Contracts

Most folks have 2 year contracts and at any given time half of them are less than 1 year in. Additionally bussinesses may have other sorts of contracts that employees must follow. Hence there's inertia in the system. Rich folks might take the bullet and eat the contract penalites on their current phone--after all if you're paying $600 for the phone plus paying a premium for the high level services like "visula voice messageing", and you probably have a wi-fi hotspot contract too, you're not going to care that much about a penalty price of a contract to get out of.

The rest of us won't or cant' switch (cingular is not so good in rural areas). So cingular for a few years then they let in the other players, the price drops and we unwashed get ours after all the bugs are worked out.

Some other thoughts
1) The use of WiFi and the ability to have ringtones and pictures that don't cost you 2 bucks a pop from the phone company is a daring move for Cingular. WiFi means that these can be Skype phones too. So Cingular has a window of opportunity before WiFi and wimax becom ubquitous to get these folks as loyal customers while they develope some sort of way to make people pay for wifi voip.

2) Second, this is actually great news for microsoft, palm, and everyone except balckberry. Since the iphone is cingular only there's going to be huge demand for this level of phonage tech for all the other phone services. They have to get these from some body. With apple having signed an exclusive deal with cingular the other 99% of the market will be crying out. The next generation Zune will likely look a lot like this plus it will propbably have a built in Wii controller for xbox

3) And speaking of Wii, The apple phone has built in blue tooth and accelerometers, plus all sorts of gripping hand input modes. I wonder if it can do absolute positioning in space--maybe with that camera on the back. if so then this woul dbe an awesome game controller. rig this the the iTV (not the wii) and apple is set. Now the price looks even cheaper since you already have the home computer--if it can do the wiii thing too well bite me. Of course you'll need a couple input devices..

Re:Contracts

It might not be so much an issue of Apple "letting in" the other wireless companies as the carriers not wanting a phone like this. I can assure you that nothing I've seen from Verizon Wireless makes me believe they'd ever be willing to sell a phone that's able to sync with a PC in any way. They'd sooner go bankrupt than let one of their customers rip MP3s from a CD and put them on their phone instead of paying Verizon $2 per track to download a crappy copy that can't be played on other devices. Your carrier may vary.

Re:Contracts

...and, my roommate has this phone. It's certainly not bad, but Jobs' keynote speech really did hit the nail on the head on the awkwardness of this and similar phones.

My roommate's general comment: "it's really great, but one of the most difficult things to do with this phone is actually use it as one."

Re:Contracts

I have one (Sprint PPC-6800. It's the same model though) and it really does do cool things, but it really sucks as a phone! My company purchased it for me so I can remote into the servers with it via Terminal Services and VPN, but this Apple IPhone is what I really want.

Proximity sensors so it turns off the touchscreen when it's close to your ear! I can not tell you how much of a problem that is on the 6800.

Re:Contracts

See the internet features more as a projection of the future - I can't see myself paying my network at their data rates to use them, or even at most wifi hotspots, but I spend most of my day at work or home, within range of private WiFi networks, and I could see myself using a device like this for a lot of light browsing tasks (reading email, etc) - and using widgets and the Amazon / Ebay APIs, someone is bound to make a better scaled interface (the zooming in / out would get annoying - it's why I gave up the PSP as a web device after a brief experiment).

Going forward - you can already see the cross contracts for wifi hotspots with network providers - and people like Murdoch and NTL/Virgin going for combined mobile/TV/broadband/phone packages. The obvious thing is a 'one-stop shop' contract, which is what consumers want (even if they're better off shopping around).

You're right that about it being expensive though. I presume we'll see most of the UI re-used in the next full-size iPod revision, and to be honest just that with a wireless internet connection would keep me more than happy.

Wii controller? What are you talking about?

Considering the fact that it won't be until July 2008 before Microsoft gets games into the Zune [engadget.com], I'd say they're a little backlogged on iPod catch-up features. I'm seriously wondering what happened in the middle of your post, though, because it made lots of sense (or sounded like it, except it took me about 30 seconds to figure out what "visula voice messaging" was supposed to be), until about halfway through point 2.

Sure the phone has sensors (lots of devices do), but I'm sure it will never, ever be intended for them to be used in the way you described. Maybe there will be some kind of hack project to make the iPhone usable as a very basic interface for something, but the basic sensors it has are limited, I'm sure to being useful for their intended design purposes. The Wiimote was designed over a period of years to be used as a controller for the Wii. It's functionality won't be duplicated by a hacked iPhone. And I don't think Microsoft wants to make a controller/phone/Zune that costs as much as its competitors more expensive games console, to attract people to the XBox360. The last thing you want to do is throw your $500 controller for the $400 console at your $2000 plasma. Not to mention the fact that the Wii controller concept works because the Wii was designed around it. Unless Microsoft wants to build a Wii-style console, Wii-style controllers will never sell for it. Look up "Power Glove" and "U-Force" on wikipedia.

Re:Contracts

Hey, this is a GREAT looking device. But I have this weird feeling it's not a very good phone.

For instance, why is the battery time just 5-16 hours? You mean, you have to keep the thing charged most of the time? Might as well be a laptop, then (and at these prices it pretty much is).

It also seems a little bulky for a phone. It's essentially designed for women with handbags. It's not likely to fit into my pocket without fear it'll break.

My guess is that early adopters will get it and use it, but for the general masses, this won't be something they get for another 6 years, unlike the iPod.

Re:Contracts

I'm going to pick on you a little bit since yours is the first post I've read mentioning battery life. Why is that such a big deal? I could understand if you were literally going to be on the phone all day, but assuming you'd have a more normal usage pattern, why is it so difficult to drop a phone into a dock (which they mentioned the iPhone will have) or plug in a charger when you get home at the end of the day? Sure, longer battery life is always nice, and I don't always remember to keep my phone charged either, but is having to plug in a cord once a day really such a hassle? :)

A more important issue to me would be, does the iPhone have an "offline" mode that turns off the phone while still letting you use the iPod, say, on a plane?

thin and standby power management

Bulky? it's thinnner than almost any phone on the market. it's shorter than most flip phones or ones that extend KB. it will slip nicely in my jean pockets. and good god who talks for 5 hours on a cell phone. that's 300 minutes a day.

They were a bit cagey on the battery life I admit. this one clearly has varying modes of use. PDA mode with screen and CPU churning. Idle PDA with screen dimmed, and cell-phone mode, wi-fi on. blue tooth on. etc... No mention of stand-by time.

I'm thinking they are being cagey because they are still developing the power management software and don't really know. They probably still have wads of debugging code in this and have not optimized a lot of it since it's obviously running on yet another cpu. THey did the same thing at the debut of OSX and then of intel, not beiing totally clear about the power management.

On the other hand, the track record on the ipod is that they tend to underspec the battery life. Or rather they spec it for normal usage not minimal settings like other brands do. So those are lower bounds I imagine.

Re:I DONT want a GSM + Edge phone...

If five years down the road the hardware (or even software) part of the business isn't contributing, it can easily be jettisoned.

I thought so too, but then I realized that the iPhone runs Mac OS X, and perhaps the AppleTV thingy also does. I consider that a positive sign.

Leopard?

The iPhone does indeed look cool, but I was kind of hoping to find out some new stuff about Leopard. Is it just me, or were there no announcements about the new version of OS X at all?

Re:Leopard?

Sadly no. The Keynote focused on the Apple TV and th iPhone.

Re:Leopard?

That's not the reason. Vista has already been released to manufacturing, and there certainly would not be any significant changes between now and consumer availability (real soon now).

Speculating

I can think of a few possible explanations for the lack of Leopard in the keynote:

• Most of the developer-related changes in Leopard -- which are the ones that really need to be pre-announced -- are already out in the open, and have been since WWDC. So the iPhone got to take center stage at MacWorld and get all the attention.
• A number of previews of 10.5 developer tools that I've seen are built to expire in July, which would seem to hint at a summer release; that would be closer to WWDC 2007, which would mean that's the logical time to demo the finalized OS (and also to announce new machines shipping with it preinstalled).
• The main unresolved thing about Leopard is a hint Jobs dropped that there were UI changes on the way; the last time Apple did a significant UI refresh, they kept it secret until the last possible minute. If Leopard contains significant new UI, it wouldn't be surprising if they kept a lid on it again.
• Adobe's Creative Suite 3 (including the much-clamored-for Intel-native Photoshop) is still in beta, and waiting to release 10.5 at around the same time as the final CS3 would give many Mac users who live and breathe Photoshop a compelling reason to upgrade immediately, boosting initial adoption.

Re:Leopard and June 1

You might also notice the iphone doesn't ship until June. Sounds like the iPhone will run Leopard.

Re:Leopard and June 1

The two OS probably have as much as common as say, Windows XP and Windows Mobile

Yeah, I'm a bit skeptical of a full OS X install running on that thing. It would be pretty cool if you could get some type of desktop and actually write apps for the iPhone on the iPhone. I'm probably the only one in the world who would want a feature like that. :P

Also, for an 'all in one' type device, there is one thing it's missing. Games! I'm not sure what kind of games could work well on a touch screen outside of puzzle/card games, but hopefully there will be a few that run on there.

Re:Leopard and June 1

Uh, Nintendo DS seems to indicate that touch screen games are highly sought after, and profitable.