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Why the iPod is Losing its Cool
Posted by
Zonk
on Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:35 PM
from the totally-unhip dept.
from the totally-unhip dept.
An anonymous reader writes "The Guardian Unlimited has a provocative article on the recent decline in iPod sales: 'Analysts warn that the iPod has passed its peak. From its launch five years ago its sales graph showed a consistent upward curve, culminating in a period around last Christmas that saw a record 14 million sold. But sales fell to 8.5 million in the following quarter, and down to 8.1 million in the most recent three-month period. Wall Street is reportedly starting to worry that the bubble will burst.'"
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Why the iPod is Losing its Cool
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60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Wednesday August 15, @03:36PM)
From the article:
There doesn't seem so much of a crack in any edifice as much as there's ultimately a saturation of the marketplace. At some point, pretty much everyone who wants an iPod gets one, and by now that's pretty much done (anyone hear any recent "I want an iPod" whines from anyone?).
Jobs (from Apple) isn't letting the grass grow ... with his
As seen in a previous slashdot discussion (the Amazon Unbox article [slashdot.org]) on video download, it isn't going to happen, or is at least unlikely. There is a slew of articles and surveys showing consumers, especially the target demographic of "younger folk" aren't that interested in long (full length features) videos. Video downloads, management, etc., is just a messier beast for consumers, enough so it's a long way from emergent (storage considerations, price, quality of small devices, battery power for video, DRM, download times, backups, etc.).
Also, consumers are getting hip to the snake oil that is iTunes: (from the article)
Yeah, initially all were in love with the iPod because for the return on effort, it seemed like magic. Consumers eventually get tired of jumping through even the tiniest of hoops to continue "enjoying" their gadgets. They want to turn it on, and not have to worry that the computer from which they're trying to transfer music is "iTunes anointed" or not. DRM-fatigue, finally, sets in (it's about time!).
This is the SONY walkman all over again, then the SONY CD walkman... it's done. It's hard to imagine quantum leaps of coolness and convenience beyond an iPod or video iPod. The curve had to level, there just isn't any there there. Apple should be happy with what they've done, but I don't think this is a growth niche any longer.
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://mx-l0ve-f0r-y0uu.blogspot.com/)
The majority of iPod users use MP3s, which aren't affected by DRM. And DRM isn't anything at all new to iPod, either. There's no reason to assume the correlation that you take as a given. Any random anti-DRM screed is sure to get modded +5 on Slashdot, but you should put in the extra work and have it at least make some kind of sense.
And it isn't a scientific survey, but every person I know who's technologically savvy enough to be downloading MP3s is also downloadings .avi's. Here in China MP4 compliance is a big selling point for cell phones, PDAs, and other random gadgets. I gotta believe it's the same in the US. Amazon may not be impressing people, but that has more to do with the price than the fundamental concept.
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Saturday October 08 2005, @03:57AM)
Music, unlike video, requires only one sense (hearing) and can be passive while one is doing other things.
You can listen to music while you browse the web, jog, write code.
You can't really watch a video using a portable device while doing those things. (other than porn...)
It can work though for people who travel a lot in public transportation.
That niche is partly filled by portable gaming which is also an activity that requires your attention.
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:4, Funny)
Unless you're impotent, watching porn while jogging doesn't sound like a comfortable thing to do. Especially when you're wearing those jogging pants.
"Dude is that your....??"
"That's my ehm IPOD sticking out! That's right"
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Monday January 06 2003, @10:36PM)
Portable movies pointless (Score:4, Insightful)
(http://www.bytenoise.co.uk/)
In my opinion, portable video will never be really as successful as portable music.
I think you're right, and I think Apple knows this, which is probably why each new Mac Mini (now with Front Row, a remote control and TV output) has been inching closer and closer to the TV set. I suspect people will download videos via iTunes just so they can watch them on TV almost instantly, without the fuss of having to leave the house, probably ignoring whether they can watch them on their iPod or not.
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Informative)
(http://www.ericbarker.com/ | Last Journal: Wednesday October 10, @08:43PM)
You missed the point, again. iTunes, by default is set to import CDs to AAC (I forget which bit rate). Changing to mp3 requires the user to go into the scary "Advanced > Importing" tab in the preference pane. MANY people, if not most, don't even notice that their ripping to AAC instead of MP3, since they use the "import" button on their CDs instead of choosing the "Convert Selection to [whatever]" option. The point is, to switch to mp3s you have to:
Only a very small segment of the population are going to go "out of their way" (even if it's a fairly small trip) to switch, and most don't even know it. By the time many people do realize that they're encoding AACs, they've been already working out fine for them on the iPod, so they have no real desire to switch. On top of that, when they DO get interested in learning the difference, they have the entire internet, as well as Apple Computer saying, "AACs are better than MP3s" (which they are).
So no, I would be willing to guess that a good 75% of ALL CD imported tunes on digital music players are AACs. The MP3 is dead, most people don't even know it.
Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better (Score:4, Informative)
(Last Journal: Sunday November 05 2006, @05:31AM)
No, it will load AAC, MP3, AIFF, WAV and Apple Lossless files.
-jcr
Re:Not just DRM but client fatigue. Free is better (Score:5, Informative)
In your overbearing zeal you either don't know what you are talking about or you are lying. In addition to AAC files from iTMS you also have the choices of mp3, AIFF, and Apple lossless. That is just the audio music formats. You also have video and spoken audio (audio books) as choices. In your excitement to declare the king is dead you should be more careful about your accuracy or face being dismissed as an untrustworthy voice motivated more by spite than knowledge.
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:5, Interesting)
(http://www.smashcat.org/personal/)
You know I'm glad people are finally starting to realise they're being screwed in the ass by DRM. Over the last few months I've been asked various questions by (non technical) family, friends and colleagues that all involve DRM'ed content making things awkward, and not allowing them to do what they want with their legally bought music. I'm happy to tell them why they can't play their iTunes/Napster sourced music wherever they like; hopefully they'll wake up and see where their apathy has got them.
I then mention there are plenty of places people can get all the music they like without DRM, for nothing
Re:60M sold? that's a lot. (Score:4, Funny)
Link please.
Inevitable (Score:4, Insightful)
(http://www.spykes.net/)
Re:Inevitable (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course. Because the iPod only sold 1/3 more in both the first and second quarters than last year. But wait - it's down on last year's Christmas rush sales!!!! It's in decline!! The death of the iPod is here!!!!!!! Oh wait. WTF??
Come on people, your supposed to be geeks and nerds and so inclined to actually care about real figures. Or is that not cool any longer?
Humor on a Sunday (Score:5, Funny)
It's one big advertisement given in the form of a staged interview with Microsoft's general manager of their Windows Digital Media Division. Revel in the humor as he gives choice quotes such as, "iTunes captured some early media interest with their store on the Mac, but I think the Windows platform will be a significant challenge for them." Or "With Windows Media 9 Series, you get faster starts, better quality music, and support for the most devices."
Tee-hee...
Making a prediction here (Score:5, Interesting)
Let's sit back and enjoy the negative comments from iPod haters wanting to look really cool and outside-the-norm for bashing a popular piece of technology that's left them behind. After all, it's par for course around here--let's not forget the original iPod announcement or the iPod mini discussions which were oh-so-accurate in their future predictions. Ahem.
"Fad" not a poorly chosen word, iPod = fashion (Score:5, Informative)
(http://slashdot.org/)
The team that did the survey and focus groups was very quick to point out that this was just a class project, small scale and localized. However it was similar to a pilot program that found interesting results and could be used to justify a larger national study.
(*) I own an iPod, I love it, I would buy another. I own PCs and Macs and use iTunes on both platforms. However I am not religious about music players or operating systems.
(**) Working professionals who have real jobs in industry, under the supervision of a marketing professor who does this sort of thing for rather large firms. This was a class project, not a consulting project.
(***) I was not involved in the project but did I sit in on the presentation of the results. My recollection is that the questions went something like:
Do you own a digital music player?
What models did you consider?
What model did you purchase?
Why did you purchase that model?
etc.
Ecosystem is what is important to me. (Score:4, Interesting)
When I next upgrade it will be an Ipod, not because it is fashionable or faddish or popular, but because there is now a supporting ecosystem. Cars come with IPOD docks, you can get a cheap, nifty running package from Nike that tracks speed/distance while you are listening too music while your run.
In short I think it is the perfect choice for taking my music with me everywhere, moving seamlessly from jogging, to work, to driving cross country. I am just waiting for an 8Gig Nano to make the driving across country more feasable.
Running out of Customers?? (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://www.mostlydifferent.com/)
No surprise (Score:5, Interesting)
(http://www.blissx.co.uk/)
Re:No surprise (Score:5, Insightful)
The mainstream public absolutely doesn't give a crap about iTunes DRM. It's so lax that you never notice it's there (and when people bring up iTunes DRM as a negative point, in almost every case you find that they've never tried it themselves). Most people's music collections are made up of ripped MP3s anyway.
As for the other two points, market saturation and growing competition have been around since the iPod came out in 2001, so that's nothing new. The market was saturated when Apple came to the game, yet they still won (pissing Creative off something awful). It seems the company performs its best when people are assuming they're down for the count. For the last 20 years, armchair pundits have been claiming Apple was dead, their products weren't selling, that "saturation and growing competition" were going to take them out, and so on.
I don't get this pervasive need to always hope for Apple's demise all the time. Without them, it'd be all Microsoft, all the time, with the awful WMA-based "PlaysForSure" dominating your music players and turning them into the typical Microsoft experience--unreliable, weird bugs and quirks, a hundred ugly little pieces of hardware running Microsoft software with no seamless vertical experience like you get from Apple.
Look, new automobiles have freakin' iPod dock ports built into them. The iPod isn't going away anytime soon.
I assume you mean you want it built-in, because the iPod has had built-in recording functionality for years now, accessible with add-ons like the Griffin iTalk.
Re:Coolness factor (Score:4, Informative)
(http://www.public.asu.edu/~corba3/)
Duh (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://rocksirens.com/)
it's basic business. product lifecycles are virtually all the same. launch, rise, saturation and decline. right now ipod reaching saturation, and it will go into decline sooner or later. that said, it is still very profitable for Apple, and the brand is still stupidly strong. it will most likely stay like that for a few more years at least.
this is news?
because one you buy one... (Score:3, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Saturday October 07 2006, @07:46PM)
Re:You'll eventually need new Apple batteries (Score:4, Interesting)
(http://www.rangat.org/rthille | Last Journal: Thursday November 23 2006, @12:20AM)